Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB believes it is near its target after hiking rates ten times and lowering them eight times, but should not be complacent [2] - The ECB is taking a meeting-to-meeting, data-dependent approach due to uncertainty [4] - The ECB considers the current interest rate level to be in neutral territory, around 2% [5][6] - A rate cut would be stimulative [4] Economic Outlook & Risks - Volatility in energy markets indicates a need for caution [3][8] - Trade frontloading may have contributed to good numbers in the first quarter [12] - Uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs could negatively impact the European economic outlook [15] - The European economy is in a fragile situation, making it vulnerable to uncertainty [16][17] Euro's Role & Stability - The current price level of the euro against the dollar is close to the long-term mean [9] - The ECB is not overly focused on the exchange rate, but considers it as one factor among many affecting inflation [10][11] - Strengthening the capital market union and banking union is crucial to making the euro more attractive to international investors [23][25] - A more relevant euro could contribute to a stable global environment alongside the US dollar [26]

Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

be at war. Everybody else, it's business as usual. And so I say all that to say to answer Andy's question, do you think the market will worsen amidst the months ahead.I think what will happen is that it'll be like every single thing else that we've ever seen. There's always a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the very beginning and then it will normalize and we will go back to making money. We will go back to the the business of commerce.the capitalism will emerge once again. ...

Economic Outlook & Uncertainty - The industry faces very high uncertainty regarding inflation levels and labor market softening [1][2] - Rate paths are data dependent, and various scenarios can justify different paths [1] - Rate cut paths reflect an expectation that cuts will become appropriate, considering the uncertainty [2] Monetary Policy - The industry is assessing numerous scenarios with different combinations of inflation and labor market conditions [1] - No one holds rate path predictions with strong conviction [1] - Rate path predictions are updated quarterly [1]

If you look at the um the rate path uh starting in December to today and adjust it over uh the full uh uh time horizon you've got there, you've taken about a quarter point per year out of your projected path and you end at a higher rate at N2027 than you were would have in the prior forecasts. Is that a result of of of a sense that tariffs will lead to more persistent inflation. Is it a result of reassessments of where your short-term neutral rate is it.Why why are you on a slower path now. So I would focus ...

Inflation & Tariffs - The market is underestimating the potential impact of oil prices, which could rival or even exceed the uncertainty surrounding tariffs [3][4] - Tariffs' inflationary impact is still anticipated, though not yet significantly observed [1][8] - The effects of tariff increases on prices are largely unseen to date [8] Oil Market - Geopolitical strife in the Middle East introduces significant uncertainty regarding future oil prices [3] - A rapid surge in oil prices, potentially exceeding $100 per barrel due to events like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, could shock industrial economies [5] Monetary Policy - Current Federal Reserve policy is considered slightly tight, with a real interest rate a little high [6] - The Federal Reserve can afford to wait and observe the development of tariff and oil uncertainties [7] Housing Market - The housing sector, particularly new residential construction spending, constitutes approximately 4% of GDP and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve due to its interest rate sensitivity [9][10]

[Applause] Growing up, I often grappled with the fear of the unknown. Whether it was moving to a completely new country, starting a new school, or making new friends, every new day or new decision feels like you're trapped between two possibilities. In this world where reality isn't as clearcut as it seems, what if something could exist in two states at once.What if right now something crucial in your life is both true and false. Let's take a deeper look. In 1935, physicist Irvvin Schroinger introduced a th ...

Lael Brainard, Former Federal Reserve vice chair, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the Israel-Iran conflict, the Fed's next moves and the economy. ...

Oil prices spiking following Israel's strike on Iran, adding an inflationary input ahead of the Fed's meeting next week. Meanwhile, we just got a positive signal from the data. An early read on Michigan consumer sentiment for June coming in well above expectations.Also, inflation expectations fell. Joining us is former Dallas Fed President and CNBC contributor Richard Fiser. So Richard, is is it your view that this is just going to make the Fed even more patient on its stance to do anything because it has t ...

Inflation data on the agenda today, this time at the producer level. May PPI is due in just over two hours time. For more insights on inflation in the economy ahead of the Fed's policy meeting next week, we want to bring in Ian Shepardson.He's chairman and editor and chief of Pantheon Macroeconomics. And Ian, the weaker than expected inflation numbers yesterday once again. Look, what what does this mean.that the tariffs are not going to be nearly as inflationary as people thought or there's a longer delay b ...