The $305 billion stablecoin market could threaten traditional lending, hamper monetary policy and trigger a run on some of the world’s safest assets, the International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday https://t.co/zuA0vomr41 ...

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she can’t declare an end to interest-rate cuts, despite her reiterating that monetary policy and the economy are “in a good place” https://t.co/s2TlBG6eea ...

Market Trends & Sentiment - Gold's 49% rally over the past 12 months signals potential market trouble ahead, contrasting with bullish equity sentiment [1] - The gold rally reflects increasing fear of stagflation or even recession in the medium term [2] - Gold's performance may reflect deeper concerns that run counter to equity market optimism [2] Economic Factors - Market expects lower interest rates in the future, boosting gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Stubborn inflation keeps investors wary as elevated inflation erodes bond yields and purchasing power [1] - Declining deficit to GDP ratio is driven in part by tariff revenue and stronger GDP [1] - A sluggish labor market persists [1]

US-China Trade Relations & Tariffs - The market reacted sharply to President Trump's threat of massive new tariffs on China, with the S&P 500 down approximately 2% and the tech sector experiencing a more significant decline [4] - The expert suggests that the tariff issue is not solvable by monetary policy and recommends the Fed to ignore it [5] - China's cut in access to rare earths is viewed as a reason for potential retaliation from the US [4] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The expert believes that the Fed should hold steady and not continue rate cuts, as cutting rates would validate passing on price increases and potentially fuel inflation [8][9] - The expert suggests that the Fed signaling it does not want to validate price increases would put a lid on inflation [8] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is described as soft but not significantly different from what is expected in an extended expansion [10] - Wages for lower-end workers are performing well, while supervisory workers have experienced lower pay increases [10][11] - The Atlanta Fed wage tracker signals no serious problems in the labor market [11] Personal Considerations - The individual withdrew his name from consideration for a government position due to personal considerations, including family involvement and satisfaction with his current job [1][2][3] - The expert finds government service to be more painful and hostile than in the past [2]

after rigorous interviews, some lasting as long as 2 hours. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has winnowed down the list for candidates for Fed chair to five from 11. And that person could be nominated to the Fed, though not necessarily as Fed chair as soon as January.According to senior Treasury officials, the remaining list of candidates, the final five, include sitting Fed officials, vice chair for supervision Michelle Bowman, and Governor Chris Waller. That's along with Kevin Hasset, the director of the N ...

Fed Chair Candidates - Treasury Secretary has narrowed down the list of candidates for Fed chair to five from eleven [2] - The final five candidates include sitting Fed officials Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller, Kevin Hasset, former Fed Governor Kevin Worsh, and Black Rock fixed income CIO Rick Reer [2][3] - The nominee could be appointed as early as December or January, potentially filling Andreana Cougler's vacant Fed governor position and later being nominated as Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term expires in May [4] - The Treasury Secretary seeks a Fed chair with experience in economics, monetary policy, banking regulation, and management [5] Selection Process & Criteria - The selection process includes multiple interviews with the Treasury Secretary, senior Treasury officials, and White House officials, concluding after Thanksgiving [3][4] - The Treasury Secretary has been critical of the Fed, advocating for reviews of its policy structure and mission, particularly its size and scope [6] - The administration seems content with Michelle Bowman's current role as vice chair for supervision, especially regarding bank deregulation for community banks [8] - Rick Reer is noted for his extensive market experience and views on the Fed and fixed income markets, setting him apart as the only candidate without prior Federal Reserve experience [9] Market Perspective - The Treasury Secretary is perceived as having a deep understanding of the markets, influencing the selection process [10][11]

The Bank of Thailand will likely keep monetary policy loose through next year, according to a deputy governor https://t.co/nLIkBdGME0 ...

Blockchain Technology & Decentralization - Blockchain 提供全球范围内的理想货币政策、支付、智能合约和实体形成途径 [1] - 该系统由不可腐败且透明的计算机法官执行，并基于纯粹自愿原则加入 [1] Free Market Capitalism - 自由市场资本主义促进人才发展 [2] - 自由市场资本主义使寻找和鼓励人才变得有利可图 [2]

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Control - Arthur Hayes explains Trump's potential plan to control the Federal Reserve (FED) [1] - The plan involves securing 4 out of 7 votes to control the Board of Governors [1] - Control of the Board of Governors allows influence over the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [1] - Packing the FOMC with individuals aligned with a specific monetary policy is a key objective [1] - This control is considered "the most important lever in the system" [1]

Market Uncertainty & Risks - The financial market faces danger due to potential government shutdown and missing economic data, specifically the delay of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases [1] - The absence of NFP and CPI data leaves the Federal Reserve (FED) without critical indicators before the October 28–29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, potentially leading to guesswork in monetary policy [1] - The market needs clarity, but the FED operating blind will cause more confusion and uncertainty [1] - The expiration of September 30's quarterly options could remove a stabilizer that has protected the market from downside shocks [1] - The vanishing options cushion may allow volatility to explode [1] - Reduced liquidity combined with the FED operating blind and structural hedges disappearing could lead to massive market uncertainty [1] - Credit spreads, funding markets, and equity volatility could all reprice violently if shutdown headlines collide with the thin market structure [1]