Trade Policy & Tariffs - The Supreme Court is reviewing tariffs related to the emergency powers act (IPA), potentially requiring the US to issue massive rebates if the tariffs are deemed illegal [3][4] - The US has collected slightly less than $100 billion from IEPA tariffs so far [5] - The administration has until October 14th to appeal to the Supreme Court, with a ruling potentially delayed until next summer, creating significant uncertainty [5] - The administration could use statutes 232 and 301 to reimpose reciprocal tariffs if IPA is struck down, but this would keep businesses in tariff limbo [6][7] Bond Market & Interest Rates - The bond market is reacting to expectations of reduced tariff revenue, potentially negatively impacting stocks and leading to higher interest rates [9] - S&P maintained the US credit rating last month largely due to increased tariff revenue, which was expected to offset negative fiscal impacts from the $34 trillion one big beautiful bill [10] Economic Impact - Potential refunds due to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade policy are key concerns for businesses [7]

Fed Independence & Political Influence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at stake, potentially initiating a broader challenge to central bank autonomy [1][2] - The confirmation of Steven Moran, Trump's nominee, is a key event to watch, raising concerns about political influence on the Fed [2] - Appointing individuals who understand and respect the Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining its integrity [11] - Concerns exist that Trump appointees might take instructions from Trump, undermining the Fed's independence [7] - Removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook is viewed as a potentially illegal act and an assault on the Fed's independence [5][10] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The president desires lower interest rates, potentially as low as 1%, which is considered unconventional by most economists [9] - The Fed may consider lowering interest rates at its next meeting [9] - The attempt to remove Cook and the new appointment are factors influencing the economic outlook [10][11] Investigations & Due Process - Investigations into Fed governors should be conducted fairly, without political motivation [6][12] - The investigation into Lisa Cook appears to be a politically motivated "fishing expedition" [13] - If evidence of wrongdoing, such as mortgage fraud, is found, it warrants investigation, regardless of central bank independence concerns [6][14]

If political control of America’s central bank becomes a consistent Republican demand, the politicisation of monetary policy is near-inevitable https://t.co/lCMFL8zXNh ...

Fed Independence & Monetary Policy - The markets are currently focused on the short run, particularly the upcoming Fed meeting in September, while the long-run economic effects of current events, such as potential higher inflation and long-term bond yields, are being overlooked [2][3][4] - Maintaining an independent monetary policy is crucial because monetary policy affects the economy in the long run, and an independent central bank focuses on long-term price stability and maximum employment goals [4][5] - Concerns exist that the government is pressuring Fed members, escalating from earlier instances like considering firing the chair, potentially undermining Fed independence [5][6] - The public nature and vitriol of the attacks, based on allegations and innuendo without due process, are unprecedented and could lead to the removal of officials based on arbitrary reasons, jeopardizing Fed independence [7][8] - Undermining Fed independence could negatively affect the American economy, households, and businesses, even if policymakers remain unbiased, as the mere perception of political influence can impact markets [9] Political Influence & Board Composition - There is concern about the possibility of a political majority on the Fed board influencing the reappointment of the 12 Federal Reserve presidents, potentially leading to a significant shift in the Fed's composition [10][11][12] - The reappointment process involves an objective performance evaluation by the boards of directors of each reserve bank, but concerns exist that political considerations could override this process [13][14] - In a normal case, Fed governors would not refuse to reappoint someone based on a whim or policy views; there would have to be a substantive issue [15] Lisa Cook & Due Process - Lisa Cook is listening to her legal counsel, and it may not be the right time for her to publicly defend herself [19] - The situation has moved beyond a normal internal investigation process and has become a legal case, circumventing standard procedures [20][21] - If a president can remove someone based on allegations without facts, Fed independence is lost, highlighting the damaging nature of the situation [22]

Our next guest is a former Fed vice chair. He's now a CNBC contributor. Roger Ferguson joins us now.It's good to see you. Welcome to our show. Thank you.Nice to be here. What do you make of this whole Lisa Cook story. Well, look, I think you put in the right context.This is really a story about trying to undo what has been 90 years of Fed independence. What most people don't know is 90 years ago in 1935 the Congress restructured uh the Fed. It removed uh executive authority, executive branch authority by ta ...

Joining us now, former Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern. Uh, Evercore ISI wrote to its clients that asset markets are not properly priced for what increasingly seems like a rupture in Fed independence. How concerned are you.>> Well, it's a very serious issue. There's no doubt about it. uh and and the bottom line from my perspective is that we want to maintain the objectivity and the integrity of the monetary policy process and a Federal Reserve decisionmaking. And this current controversy over the Feder ...

Federal Reserve Independence & Economic Policy - The report highlights President Trump's efforts to exert partisan pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), including attempts to fire a member, Lisa Cook, and influence the board's majority, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] - Financial experts widely view Trump's reference to investigating Lisa Cook for a mortgage application as a pretext to consolidate power over the independent Fed [1] - The Fed released a statement reaffirming its commitment to accountability and independence, indicating less compliance with Trump's desires [1] - The report emphasizes that politicians who interfere with the independence of central banks are "playing with fire," as historical examples show that autocratic control over economies often leads to market crashes, shortages, and even famine [1][2] - The weakening dollar, down 10% over the year, and increasing long-term borrowing costs are cited as practical effects of undermining the Fed's independence, leading to less purchasing power and higher loan rates for Americans [11][12] - The report mentions that short-term focused presidents may push for looser monetary policy, which might be good in the short term but bad for all in the long term if prices go up [15] Trump Administration & Power Consolidation - The report suggests Trump's actions are part of a wider effort to undermine career independence across the federal government, reminiscent of purges aimed at ousting career prosecutors and labor statisticians [1] - The Trump administration's desire to buy up private companies to exert more control is highlighted, exemplified by taking a tenth stake (10%) in chipmaker Intel [2] - The report mentions Trump musing about a dictatorship, raising concerns about the erosion of democratic norms [3][4] Epstein Case & Political Implications - Congress will question former Trump labor secretary, Alex Acosta, about the secret deal he cut in the Epstein case [29] - Ghislaine Maxwell's interview, where she claims to have never seen any problems from Trump, is viewed with skepticism, with some suggesting it was a scripted effort to seek a pardon [31][40] - The report highlights conflicting claims about the existence of an Epstein client list, with Trump's former attorney general claiming it existed and Maxwell denying its existence [36][37][38] Cultural & Political Commentary - The report touches on Trump's desire to control Hollywood and pop culture, viewing him as one of the most anti-First Amendment presidents in history [58][61]

Fed Chair Jerome Powell must send a clear message that the central bank can’t be bullied into submission on monetary policy, @JonathanJLevin says (via @opinion) https://t.co/L87rDcWhec ...

I'm joined now by someone who intimately understands the Fed was there for ten years and most recently was the Fed vice chair under Jay Powell, who is still now the chair. And that's, of course, Lael Brainard. Lael, thank you so much for joining us this morning.As we see this standoff between President Trump and Governor Cook, we have yet to hear from the Fed itself. What kind of response do you think we can expect from the institution. Well, I think the Federal Reserve is in an incredibly difficult positio ...

Good morning, Frank. The firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook does open dramatic questions or create dramatic questions about the legality of the move, the independence of the Fed, and of course, the outlook for monetary policy. The president cited his authority under the Constitution in the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. In stating he had the power to remove Cook for what the president said was quote allegedly making false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. The president said in the letter to Cook, " ...