Welcome back. In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal titled, "The Democrat's challenge for the 2028 election," former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel writes this in part. Much as we all celebrated our victories, the recent election results were more a repudiation of Mr.. Trump's GOP than an affirmation of the Democrats agenda. Moving forward, however, Democrats have to do more than simply muzzle their unsuccessful messages. They need to craft a narrative, an agenda that reflects America's middle class economic ...

Core Insights - Walmart continues to dominate the retail sector, surpassing earnings and revenue estimates for the third quarter and raising its full-year sales and earnings outlook for the second consecutive quarter despite inflationary pressures [2][4] Group 1: Walmart's Performance - Walmart's strong performance is attributed to its ability to attract thrifty consumers seeking promotions, with around 7,400 active price rollbacks in US stores [3] - The company has implemented 2,000 permanent price rollbacks since the beginning of the year, enhancing its value proposition [3][4] - Walmart's Chief Financial Officer emphasized the company's strong positioning in the current economic climate, suggesting it is better insulated than competitors [4] Group 2: Broader Retail Environment - The National Retail Federation forecasts a retail sales increase of 3.7% to 4.2% during the holiday season, projecting sales to exceed $1 trillion for the first time [4] - Other major retailers like Bath & Body Works, Home Depot, and Target have reported disappointing earnings and lowered their outlooks due to ongoing macroeconomic pressures [6] - Lowe's reported year-over-year sales growth but also reduced its full-year profit outlook, indicating uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Mazda Motor Corp. is facing significant challenges due to President Trump's tariffs, which have resulted in billions in potential headwinds, impacting its quarterly results and overall performance [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Mazda reported a steep decline in its Growth score, dropping from 90.49 to 50.37 within a week following its fiscal second-quarter results, indicating underperformance in earnings and revenue growth [4]. - The company experienced year-over-year declines in sales and profits, attributing these losses to the tariffs, despite some reductions in tariffs ahead of a U.S.-Japan trade deal [4]. - Mazda suffered an operating loss during the quarter but remains hopeful for a turnaround in the second half of the year [4]. Group 2: Market Impact - The North American region is Mazda's largest market by volume, making it particularly vulnerable to trade and tariff policies [1]. - The stock has remained flat year-to-date but has decreased by 4.19% over the past month following disappointing earnings performance [5].

Credit where credit's due, President Trump made a big bet that the US had a magnetic appeal and that would enable him to get a better deal from US trade partners and companies that want to do business in the United States. On the evidence of the last few months, that bet is playing out pretty nicely. Did the economics profession get it wrong on tariffs or is the impact just delayed.Economists don't agree on much. One thing they do agree on is that free trade is good and that tariffs are bad. If we were to t ...

Core Insights - Walmart Inc. reported a strong third-quarter performance, exceeding Wall Street expectations and raising its full-year guidance [1][6] - Executives noted that while grocery prices are stabilizing, tariffs could still impact household item costs [1][2] Financial Performance - Walmart's quarterly sales reached $179.5 billion, marking a 5.8% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by upper-income households seeking value [6] - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 62 cents, surpassing the expected 60 cents [6] - Walmart raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to a range of $2.58 to $2.63 per share [6] Tariff and Inflation Insights - Overall inflation for Walmart is currently in the "low-1% range," indicating a cooling from previous highs [2] - Imported non-food goods remain vulnerable to trade-related cost pressures, while grocery prices have shown relief, particularly in key food categories [2][3] - The primary exception in grocery prices is beef, attributed to commodity cycles rather than trade policies [4] Supply Chain Management - Walmart is focusing on supply chain discipline to mitigate potential price hikes from tariffs, effectively managing inventory levels and product mix [4][5] - Inventory closed the quarter up 2.6%, which is about half the rate of sales growth, allowing the company to maintain margins without fully passing tariff costs to consumers [5] Stock Performance - Walmart shares increased by 19.01% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by 11.42% [7] - The stock closed at $107.11, up 6.46% on Thursday, with an overall increase of 21.18% over the year [7]

Economic Policy and Market Reactions - President Trump has proposed a $2,000 "tariff rebate" for middle and lower-income Americans, suggesting that tariff revenues could fund this initiative, although economists express skepticism about its feasibility and potential inflationary effects [2][3][4] - The estimated cost of providing a $2,000 payment to every American could reach approximately $600 billion, which is about three times the current annual tariff revenue [3] - The market's response to Trump's economic policies has been volatile, with significant fluctuations influenced by both positive corporate earnings and fears surrounding the "AI bubble" [9][12] Energy Sector Developments - The Trump administration announced plans for new oil drilling off the coasts of California and Florida, aiming to bolster domestic energy production [5] - While the American Petroleum Institute praised the move as historic, there is significant opposition from California's Governor and environmental groups, raising concerns about ecological impacts [6] - The immediate market reaction to the drilling announcement was muted, with WTI Crude Oil prices falling over 2% to $59.50 per barrel [6] Tariff Policies and Global Trade - Trump's administration has a history of imposing tariffs, including a proposed 155% tariff on Chinese imports, which previously caused a significant sell-off in U.S. stocks [10][11] - The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump's tariffs could result in an average tax increase of $1,200 per U.S. household in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026 [11] - Recent tariff reductions on over 200 agricultural products indicate a complex approach to trade policy, amidst ongoing legal reviews of the President's tariff powers [11] Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The stock market has experienced significant ups and downs, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 712 points on November 20, 2025, largely due to Nvidia's strong quarterly report [8] - However, fears of an "AI bubble" led to a decline in the S&P 500 by 1.6% the following day, highlighting the market's sensitivity to broader economic narratives [9] - The unpredictable nature of market reactions to Trump's policies creates a challenging environment for investors, who must navigate a landscape filled with contradictory information and potential economic shifts [12][13]

Economic Activity - India's economic activity slowed in November [1] Trade - Shipments to the US declined amid higher tariffs [1]

US-Pakistan relations are on the rise as Trump hits India with high tariffs, upending more than two decades of US policy aimed at improving relations with the world’s biggest democracy https://t.co/rLyjMAXNTo ...

South Korea’s early exports continued to grow in November, supported by sustained demand for semiconductors even as steep US tariffs on autos weighed on trade momentum https://t.co/SYrF6h7kA9 ...

Economic Sentiment - Voters' views of the economy have worsened, with 76% rating national economic conditions as "not so good" or "poor" [1] - 60% of voters rated their personal financial situations as "not good" or "poor" [2] - A majority of 61% disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy, with only 38% expressing approval [2] Responsibility for Economic Conditions - A nearly two-to-one majority (62% to 32%) of voters believe Trump is more responsible for the current economy than Biden [5] - Democrats are significantly more likely to blame Trump compared to Republicans, with a 40-point difference [5] Economic Policy Impact - By a 31-point margin, more voters believe Trump's policies have hurt rather than helped them, similar to sentiments towards Biden's policies at the end of his term [7] - Voters are critical of tariffs, with 63% disapproving of the Trump administration's handling of them [10] Inflation and Cost of Living - A majority of 52% believe inflation is "not at all" under control, with only 18% saying it is completely or mostly under control [10] - Grocery costs are a significant concern, with 85% reporting increases compared to the previous year [11] - Utility bills and healthcare costs have risen for 78% and 67% of voters, respectively, while two-thirds reported increased housing costs [14] Gas Prices - Voters reported some relief in gas prices, with 54% indicating price increases and 30% noting decreases [14]