Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a quarter-point rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, citing a weak labor market and manageable inflation as key factors [1][3][4]. Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of continued weakness, with the latest jobs report indicating only 119,000 jobs added in September, which is expected to be revised down by approximately 50,000 to 60,000 [6][7]. - Inflation is not perceived as a significant concern moving forward, with expectations that it will begin to decline. Current inflation is estimated to be around 2.4% to 2.5% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The approach to monetary policy may become more cautious and data-dependent starting in January, as a significant amount of economic data will be released [5][6]. - Waller does not foresee a turnaround in the labor market in the next 6 to 8 weeks, indicating a continued focus on labor market conditions in future policy decisions [6][8]. Communication and Transparency - Waller emphasizes the importance of transparency and accountability in monetary policy, suggesting that press conferences after every meeting should continue to communicate decisions to the public and financial markets [12][13].

Core Insights - Best Buy Co., Inc. is highlighted as a stock to watch, with expectations of being impacted by higher interest rates and tariffs, but potentially benefiting from a PC refresh cycle [1] Company Overview - Best Buy sells a variety of technology products, electronics, appliances, and entertainment items, along with services such as delivery, installation, and technical support [2] - The company was previously considered a strong dividend stock, yielding 4.5%, but was removed from a list of interesting prospects due to its reliance on strong consumer growth and tariff relief [2] Market Context - The upcoming earnings report for Best Buy is anticipated to be affected by external economic factors, including tariffs and interest rates [1] - There is a comparison made with AI stocks, suggesting that while Best Buy has potential, certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and less downside risk [3]

An executive order signed by President Trump uh removing tariffs on Brazilian coffee and beef is expected to ease food costs for Americans. Joining us now, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins came to New York. >> I did.Great to be here. You're all on set. It's nice to have you here.>> Yeah, thank you. >> Affordability. I saw uh Secretary Bess and I kind of liked it.Uh we hope to see him soon too. But he said he was asked about some specific um item being up I don't know 8% or something like that. And I thi ...

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the European Union needs to change its digital regulations in order to get a deal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs https://t.co/Lr2evuO01u ...

The European Union said no deal was expected Monday to lower tariffs on steel and other products during talks with senior US trade officials https://t.co/TMlJA1wPal ...

Core Insights - Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, warns that the U.S. economy is in a "serious affordability crisis" due to specific policy choices impacting inflation [1][5] - Consumer price inflation is currently around 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, attributed to recent interventions rather than an economic cycle [2][4] - Zandi highlights that aggressive tariffs and restrictive immigration policies are contributing to persistent inflation, which was previously on a downward trajectory [3][4] Economic Impact - The current economic baseline shows inflation spiking in 2025 and remaining elevated, contrasting with a scenario without tariffs where inflation would dip toward the Fed's target by 2026 [4] - Zandi predicts "even higher inflation dead-ahead," indicating a grim outlook for American consumers, especially low- and middle-income households [4][5] - The burden of inflation and economic shifts disproportionately affects lower-income households facing high prices for necessities [5] Market Response - Despite the negative economic outlook, futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones indices were trading higher, reflecting a positive market sentiment [6] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) both closed higher, with SPY up 1.00% and QQQ up 0.75% [7]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding is adopting a full-price strategy for the holiday season, opting out of Black Friday discounts to reinforce its premium brand positioning [1][2]. Company Performance - On Holding reported Q3 net sales of 794.4 million Swiss francs ($994.3 million) and a net income of 118.9 million francs, significantly up from 30.5 million francs in the same quarter last year [4]. - The company raised its full-year sales guidance from 2.91 billion francs to 2.98 billion francs, indicating strong performance and optimism [4]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Adidas and Nike are engaging in early Black Friday promotions, contrasting with On's strategy [2]. - Nike anticipates a decrease in fiscal Q2 revenue and a drop in gross margins, with Q1 net income down 31% year over year [5]. - HOKA, owned by Deckers, is also promoting discounted holiday gifts, reflecting a different approach compared to On [3]. Market Trends - Deckers' brands, HOKA and UGG, saw sales increases of 11.1% and 10.1% year over year, while other brands under Deckers experienced a 26.5% decrease [7]. - Tariffs are influencing sales guidance adjustments for Nike and Deckers, as rising prices are affecting consumer purchasing behavior [8].

Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies are central to his economic strategy, with claims of strengthening the U.S. economy and curbing inflation, while the stock market has reportedly hit an "ALL-TIME HIGH for the 48th time in 9 months" [2][3] - A proposed $2,000 "tariff stimulus check" for middle-income Americans, funded by tariff revenues, raises skepticism among economists who argue that tariffs are typically paid by U.S. importers, leading to higher consumer prices [3][4] - Historical data shows that a significant increase in tariffs can negatively impact S&P 500 earnings, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 1-2% reduction in earnings per share for every five-percentage-point increase in tariff rates [4][6] Market Reactions and Volatility - Trump's announcements have led to significant market volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations despite achieving record highs, as seen on November 21, 2025, when the S&P 500 was down 2% despite a 0.92% rise in the US500 [5][12] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, reached the mid-40s in April 2025, indicating extreme investor anxiety following tariff announcements [6][12] - The market's relationship with Trump's economic statements is characterized by unpredictability, with analysts noting that his pronouncements can trigger significant intraday market swings [11] Sector-Specific Impacts - Trump's directive for the Department of Justice to investigate the meatpacking industry over alleged price manipulation caused immediate stock price drops for major companies like JBS and Tyson Foods [8] - The pharmaceutical sector reacted sharply to Trump's price reduction promises for GLP-1 weight loss drugs, with stocks of companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly experiencing declines following his announcements [9][10] - Subsequent agreements to set drug prices at around $350 per month for Medicare and Medicaid recipients indicate a significant shift in the market landscape, although initial reactions were negative [10] Overall Market Sentiment - As of late November 2025, major indices showed a mix of gains and losses, reflecting the ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the market, with the S&P 500 down 2% despite a 1% increase on the same day [12] - The market continues to grapple with the implications of Trump's policies, oscillating between moments of optimism and underlying concerns about potential policy shifts [12]

INCREDIBLE PROGRESS WE UNDERSTAND THERE'S A LOT MORE WORK TO DO AND THE ONLY THING I WOULD ASK OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PATIENCE. >> SCOTT BESSENT, WELCOME BACK TO "MEET THE PRESS". >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.>> I WANT TO START RIGHT THERE ON THE DISCUSSION OF AFFORDABILITY. YOU JUST HEARD VICE PRESIDENT J. D.VANCE ASK PEOPLE TO HAVE, QUOTE, A LITTLE BIT OF PATIENCE WITH THE ADMINISTRATION. LET ME ASK YOU, MR. SECRETARY, HOW LONG DO AMERICANS NEED TO BE PATIENT. HOW LONG DO THEY HAVE TO WAI ...

Group 1 - The potential for a stablecoin run could lead to significant fire sales of U.S. Treasuries, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis triggered by Lehman Brothers [1][4] - Recent U.S. tariff threats have caused substantial volatility in the crypto market, with a notable $20 billion loss in under a day following a 100% tariff threat on China [2] - The depeg of USDC in March 2023, following the Silicon Valley Bank failure, exemplifies how real-world financial shocks can lead to rapid redemptions in fiat-backed stablecoins [3] Group 2 - Central bank officials warn that a run on dollar-pegged stablecoins could necessitate a reevaluation of monetary policies due to the potential for fire sales of U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - If tariffs lead to higher yields and lower liquidity, the stability of Treasury bills could be compromised, especially when they are most needed [5] - The stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching $2 trillion within three years, but there are underlying risks due to the concentration of market control by Tether and Circle [5]