Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Markets are near record highs and have been on an upward trajectory since post "liberation day" lows [1] - Seasonal factors suggest a potentially strong market run between now and Thanksgiving [2][5] - A substantial amount of money market cash, almost $4 trillion, remains on the sidelines, presenting both opportunity and risk [4] - Investors' unease and the "wall of worry" can sometimes drive markets higher [6] - Sticking with winning tech stocks is a viable strategy, but periodic profit-taking and volatility should be expected [8] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market anticipates the Fed will likely hedge its bets due to incomplete economic data, potentially leading to another rate cut this year [9] - Recent CPI data was encouraging, rising as expected but less than anticipated [10] - Private data from companies like Blackstones, credit card companies (Visa), and Bookingcom provides valuable insights [11][12] Earnings Season & Company Performance - The current earnings season has been impressive, with strong margin stories [3] - Companies have been running more resilient, leaner, and meaner, potentially due to tariffs [3] - Earnings are coming in very strongly, with 87% beating on earnings and 83% on revenues, exceeding the 5 and 10-year averages [9]

Core Insights - Adidas' CEO indicated that U.S. retailers are ordering less product due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs, leading to widespread discounting [1][3] - Third-quarter sales in North America fell by 5%, with shares dropping over 10%, despite global revenue reaching a record of 6.63 billion euros ($7.73 billion) [2] - Adidas expects U.S. tariffs to reduce operating profit by 120 million euros this year, with the most significant impact anticipated in the fourth quarter [4] Sales Performance - North American sales decreased by 5%, and even after adjusting for currency effects, it remained the worst-performing market for Adidas [2][6] - Global revenue grew by 3%, reaching a quarterly record of 6.63 billion euros ($7.73 billion) [2] Retailer Behavior - Retailers are cautious and ordering less upfront, leading to increased flexibility with discounts to clear excess inventory [3] - The discounting trend is negatively impacting Adidas' full-price sales, as consumers are drawn to lower-priced competitors [3] Pricing Strategy - Adidas has raised prices on more expensive items while keeping prices stable for cheaper products to avoid alienating sensitive customers [5] - The price of the popular Samba sneaker increased from $90 to $100, although the visibility of these price increases to consumers is still uncertain [5] Supply Chain Adjustments - To mitigate the impact of tariffs, Adidas has reduced sourcing from China to the U.S. and implemented price hikes and supply chain changes [4][6] - A strong euro against the dollar resulted in a 300 million euro hit to quarterly sales, although North American sales adjusted for currency were up 1% [6]

Group 1 - Nu Holdings Cl A has shown market leadership with a jump to an 83 Relative Strength (RS) Rating, indicating strong performance compared to peers [4] - The stock has a composite rating of 95 out of 99, suggesting it is among the top performers in its industry [1] - Analysts have noted that Nu Holdings is actionable on a rebound from its 50-day line, which is a positive technical indicator [1] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing fresh highs, with Nu Holdings, MongoDB, and SoFi Technologies being highlighted as key stocks to watch [1][2] - Nu Holdings has earned an RS Rating of 71, reflecting its rising market leadership [4] - The stock is part of a flat base pattern, which is one of three positive chart patterns to look for in technical analysis [1]

Tom Williams / CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images Americans are growing more concerned about high prices. Key Takeaways Consumers expect inflation to get worse, according to surveys, but many economists and Fed officials are optimistic that it will ease. A relatively tame inflation report in September gave ammunition to inflation optimists, but some of its details pointed to sustained upward pressure on prices. Inflation in September was held in check by a surprisingly low increase in a key housing c ...

Core Insights - GE HealthCare reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $1.07 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.05 [1] - The company experienced a decline in earnings from $1.14 a year ago, primarily due to tariff expenses [2] Financial Performance - Sales reached $5.14 billion, exceeding the consensus of $5.08 billion, with a year-over-year revenue growth of 6% reported and 4% on an organic basis [2] - Revenue growth was attributed to strong performance in the U.S. and the EMEA region [2] - Total company book-to-bill ratio was 1.06 times, with total orders increasing 6% organically year-over-year [3] - Net income margin decreased to 8.7% from 9.7% in the prior year, a drop of 100 basis points [3] - Adjusted EBIT margin fell to 14.8% from 16.3%, down 150 basis points, affected by tariffs but partially offset by volume and price benefits [3] Cash Flow and Operational Highlights - Cash flow from operating activities was $593 million, while free cash flow totaled $483 million [4] - The company reported robust orders with growth across all segments, driven by customer demand for differentiated solutions and a healthy capital equipment environment [4] Guidance - GE HealthCare raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings guidance from $4.43-$4.63 to $4.51-$4.63, compared to the consensus of $4.53 [5] - The company reaffirmed an adjusted EBIT margin of 15.2%-15.4%, reflecting a decline of 110 to 90 basis points compared to the 2024 adjusted EBIT margin of 16.3% [5] - The guidance includes estimated tariff impacts of $265 million to adjusted EBIT and 45 cents to adjusted earnings per share [5] Stock Performance - GE HealthCare's shares were down 2.03% at $77.79 at the time of publication [6]

And I called Prime Minister Modi. I said, We can't make a trade deal with you. No, no, we must make a trade deal.I said, no, we again, you starting a war with Pakistan, we're not going to do it. Then I called Pakistan. I said, We're not going to do trade with you because you're fighting with India.They're strong people. I'll tell you what. Prime Minister Modi is the nicest looking guy.He's a killer. He's tough as hell. No, we will fight.I said, whoa. Is this the same man that I know. You say we're going to ...

Financial Performance - The company reported net sales of $1.157 billion in 3Q 2025, a 2.7% increase year-over-year (YOY)[13] - Organic sales increased by 0.6% YOY[6] - Adjusted EBITDA was $202 million, representing a 17.4% margin, a 50 bps increase YOY[6, 13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.37, an 11% increase YOY[6] - Free cash flow was $164 million[6] Segment Performance - Engineered Bearings segment net sales were $766 million, a 3.4% increase YOY[23] - Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA was $144 million, with a 18.8% margin[23] - Industrial Motion segment net sales were $391 million, a 1.3% increase YOY[28] - Industrial Motion adjusted EBITDA was $75 million, with a 19.0% margin[28] Outlook - The company reaffirmed its 2025 EPS outlook at the midpoint, with an updated range of $5.20-$5.30[6, 36] - Free cash flow for 2025 is expected to be approximately $375 million[35] - Full-year 2025 sales are expected to decrease by 0.75% at the midpoint[36] Capital Allocation - The company paid its 413th consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share[6, 32] - Net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.1x[6, 8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted operating margin of 10.2% on revenue of $2.7 billion for Q3 2025, leading to adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.20, an increase of 9.2% year-over-year [6][14] - Consolidated sales decreased by $53 million, or 2%, compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to lower sales volume in the Access segment [14] - Adjusted operating income was $274 million, down slightly from the prior year, reflecting lower volume [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Access segment achieved adjusted operating income margins of 11% on sales of $1.1 billion, with sales down $254 million, or nearly 19% year-over-year, due to weaker market conditions in North America [15][16] - The Vocational segment saw strong sales growth, achieving an adjusted operating income margin of 15.6% on $968 million in sales, up $154 million, or nearly 19% from last year [16] - The Transport segment's sales increased by $48 million to $588 million, with delivery vehicle revenue growing by $114 million to $146 million, representing approximately one quarter of transport segment revenue [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that end market activity in the Access segment remains healthy, but customers are cautious with capital expenditures due to tariffs and the economic environment [7][9] - The vocational segment recorded strong orders of $1.1 billion, led by Pierce fire trucks and AeroTech products, indicating robust demand [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a local-for-local strategy in the Access equipment sector to manage tariff impacts and maintain competitiveness [48] - The long-term vision includes doubling adjusted EPS to a range of $18-$22 per share by 2028, with ongoing efforts to streamline production and improve efficiency [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the dynamic environment in 2025, including tariff impacts and sustained higher interest rates, but expressed confidence in managing these challenges while delivering solid results [20] - The updated full-year adjusted EPS guidance is now in the range of $10.50-$11.00, reflecting lower revenue expectations for the Access and Transport segments [19] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 666,000 shares for $91 million during the quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $159 million [15] - Free cash flow for the quarter was strong at $464 million, compared to $272 million in the same quarter last year [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Access segment demand outlook for 2026 - Management indicated that while there is hesitancy in the near term, long-term demand drivers remain strong, with ongoing discussions with customers about 2026 expectations [27][30] Question: Impact of tariffs on costs - The estimated tariff impact for the year is $30 million-$40 million, with expectations for pricing adjustments in 2026 to mitigate these costs [33][34] Question: Competitive landscape in Access equipment - Management believes their local manufacturing strategy positions them well against competitors, particularly those outside the U.S., and they are focused on driving improvements for customers [48][49] Question: Warranty costs and their implications - Warranty costs in Q3 were attributed to one-time issues related to defense sector vehicles, and management does not expect this to be an ongoing issue [54][55] Question: NGDV production challenges - Management confirmed that while there are challenges in ramping up production, they are targeting full-rate production by the end of the year [73][76]

Economic Developments - The Bank of Canada (BOC) lowered its target for the overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the second consecutive rate cut due to ongoing economic weakness and the impact of U.S. trade policies [2][10] - The BOC revised its 2025 growth forecast down to 1.2% from 1.8%, with 2026 growth projected at 1.1% and 2027 at 1.6%, primarily due to tariffs and weaker demand [3][10] - The BOC anticipates annualized Q3 GDP growth at 0.5% and Q4 at 1.0%, with inflation expected to remain around 2% despite core inflation measures being sticky around 3% [4][3] Corporate News - Nvidia (NVDA) became the world's first $5 trillion company, with shares surging over 5% due to strong demand for AI chips and significant orders totaling $500 billion [5][10] - Korean Air announced a purchase of 103 new Boeing (BA) aircraft valued at $36.2 billion and a separate deal for GE Aerospace (GE) engines worth $13.7 billion, alongside selecting L3Harris Technologies (LHX) for new aircraft development [6][10] - Caterpillar (CAT) shares rallied by 12%, marking the largest gain since 2009, while Fiserv (FI) experienced a record drop of 44% at market open [7][10] Market Sentiment - Kraft Heinz (KHC) CEO expressed concerns over "one of the worst U.S. consumer sentiments in decades," indicating broader economic anxieties affecting consumer spending [7][10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported third quarter sales of $911 million, a 2.2% year-over-year increase, aligning with previous guidance of low single-digit growth [10] - Activewear sales increased by 5.4%, driven by a favorable product mix and higher net prices [10] - Adjusted operating margins improved to 23.2%, reflecting an 80 basis point year-over-year increase, resulting in record adjusted diluted EPS of $1.00, up 17.6% from the previous year [5][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in the hosiery underwear category decreased by 22% year-over-year, attributed to a timing shift of shipments and broader market weakness [11] - The Comfort Colors brand performed well, celebrating its 50th anniversary, and contributed to overall sales growth [7] - The company introduced new brands such as All Pro and Champion, which are expected to drive further growth [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International sales declined by $4 million, or 6.1% year-over-year, primarily due to ongoing demand softness across markets [11] - Sales to North American distributors remained solid, supported by sustained momentum from national account customers [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing its Gildan Sustainable Growth (GSG) strategy, leveraging a large-scale, low-cost, vertically integrated manufacturing network [8] - The proposed acquisition of Hanesbrands is expected to close late this year or early 2026, with anticipated run-rate synergies of at least $200 million [8] - The company is capitalizing on its largest innovation pipeline in history, with more product launches planned for 2025 and 2026 [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver strong financial performance despite a fluid macroeconomic environment [5] - The outlook for 2025 includes revenue growth in the mid-single digits and an increase in adjusted operating margins by approximately 70 basis points [18] - Management noted that the market remains stable, with expectations for growth in the innerwear category in Q4 [24][46] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $189 million in free cash flow in the first nine months of 2025, with $200 million generated in the third quarter [16] - The company ended the quarter with net debt of about $1.7 billion, maintaining a leverage ratio of 2x net debt to trailing twelve months Adjusted EBITDA [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the weakness in the Underwear business and market share? - Management noted that the innerwear business faced delays in floor sets by large retailers and inventory management issues due to tariffs [23] - They expect a return to growth in Q4, with a stable market outlook [24] Question: What is driving the change in free cash flow guidance? - The change is attributed to transaction costs related to the Hanesbrands acquisition and timing issues with working capital [29] Question: How is the Fleece business trending with changing weather? - The Fleece business is performing well, with sales meeting expectations as the season progresses [38] Question: What is the competitive landscape like regarding tariffs? - Management indicated that there is uncertainty in the market, but they are well-positioned to optimize their supply chain and capitalize on opportunities [40] Question: Can you comment on inventory levels and tariff costs? - Inventory levels are slightly higher due to tariff costs, but the company is well-positioned for availability and control of working capital [81] Question: How will the Hanesbrands acquisition impact organic growth? - The company anticipates net sales to grow at a rate of 3%-5% CAGR over the next three years post-acquisition [85]