Retail stocks linked to merchandise have been battered in the past year, and tariffs are the most obvious reason why. Tariff rates on countries where these companies source their products are in the low to mid-double digits. Moreover, the de minimis rule, which allowed products worth below $800 to enter the U.S. duty-free, has been eliminated. It doesn't take much guesswork to see why these stocks have slumped. Retail businesses rely on volume to generate profits through thin margins. Once tariffs eat awa ...

With significant hedge fund interest and return on equity, Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) secures a spot on our list of the 13 Safest Stocks to Invest in Now. UBS Retains Its Buy Rating and $158 Price Target for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) UBS retained its Buy rating and $158 price target for Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) on September 29, emphasizing the stock’s growth potential and undervaluation. With the help of the HOKA and UGG brands, the company anticipates that earnings p ...

Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry shows resilience amid macroeconomic challenges, driven by evolving consumer preferences and strong brand adaptability [1] - Key factors influencing the industry include fashion trends, consumer spending habits, economic dynamics, and seasonal variations [3] - The industry faces opportunities and challenges, requiring continuous product innovation and effective marketing while contending with fierce competition and price sensitivity [3] Key Trends - Consumer spending remains strong, with U.S. retail sales increasing by 0.6% in August, and clothing store sales rising by 1% month-over-month [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, enhancing consumer flexibility for discretionary spending [4] - Retailers are expected to see increased demand during the holiday season, creating opportunities for stronger sales and revenue growth [4] Company Highlights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Boot Barn Holdings, Zumiez Inc., and Genesco Inc. are identified as attractive investment opportunities due to their disciplined execution and digital strength [2] - Genesco is experiencing growth driven by a refreshed product mix and strategic investments, with a projected sales growth of 3.7% and EPS growth of 71.3% [17][18] - Zumiez shows resilience with consistent comparable sales growth and a projected sales growth of 3.4% and EPS growth of 566.7% [21][22] - Boot Barn is expanding its store base and leveraging AI-powered retail innovation, with projected sales growth of 13.3% and EPS growth of 12.2% [25][26] - Deckers is performing well with its brands HOKA and UGG, projecting a sales growth of 9% [29][31] Financial Performance - The Zacks Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry ranks 80, placing it in the top 33% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [8][9] - The industry has underperformed the broader Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 over the past year, declining by 2.9% compared to the S&P 500's growth of 18.9% [11] - The industry is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17.9X, lower than the S&P 500's 23.36X and the sector's 24.82X [14]

Key Takeaways Wolverine reported broad-based Q2 growth, led by Saucony's 41.5% y/y revenue jump and record sales.Merrell marked its fourth straight quarter of growth with lighter, faster trail footwear driving demand.Sweaty Betty and Wolverine delivered margin expansion through campaigns, innovation and premium launches.Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW) delivered strong brand results in the second quarter of 2025, with Saucony leading the portfolio. The brand posted a 41.5% year-over-year revenue increase, a ...

Industry Overview - The outdoor industry encompasses recreation, wellness, and lifestyle experiences focused on nature and activities away from home, including outdoor gear, apparel, recreational vehicles, and services for hiking, camping, boating, and off-roading [1] - The industry is experiencing steady demand driven by shifting consumer values towards health, sustainability, and experience-driven living, benefiting various age groups and regions [2] Company Highlights Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) - Carnival is experiencing resilient travel demand, stronger booking trends, and higher onboard spending, leading to an increase in its full-year 2025 guidance [6][9] - The company is focusing on fleet optimization, new ship launches, and targeted marketing investments to capture rising global demand, with plans for six additional AIDA ships to undergo refurbishment [7] - Carnival's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 6% and 42.3%, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 0.5% [8] Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) - Norwegian Cruise Line is benefiting from strong consumer demand and solid onboard spending, achieving record advance ticket sales of $4 billion [11] - The company is focusing on fleet management and new ship additions, with a new revenue management system expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [12] - NCLH's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 6% and 13.2%, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 1% [13] Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor has entered fiscal 2026 with strong momentum, achieving record first-quarter results driven by HOKA and UGG brands, which exceeded expectations [14] - The company anticipates year-over-year increases of 14.6% and 6.7% in net sales for HOKA and UGG, respectively, supported by a balanced channel strategy and solid financial position [15] - DECK's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 9% and almost flat, respectively, with a recent improvement in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for current-year earnings by 17.9% [17]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) reported strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, driven by flagship brands HOKA and UGG, with revenues of $964.5 million, a 17% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share rising 24% to 93 cents, indicating robust consumer demand [1][11] Group 1: Brand Performance - HOKA emerged as the primary growth driver, achieving record quarterly revenues of $653.1 million, a 19.8% increase from the prior year, supported by global wholesale expansion and strong international demand [2][11] - UGG experienced 18.9% growth, reaching $265.1 million, marking its largest June quarter in history, with success attributed to diversification into men's footwear and year-round styles [3][11] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company’s 365 initiative has successfully broadened UGG's consumer base while maintaining its iconic appeal, aided by strong wholesale momentum and new product launches [3][11] - Deckers has implemented selective price increases and operational efficiencies to counteract rising tariffs and freight costs, although these measures may impact near-term profitability [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - For second-quarter fiscal 2026, net sales are projected between $1.38 billion and $1.42 billion, with HOKA expected to grow by 10% and UGG anticipated to see mid-single-digit growth [6] - Deckers is well-positioned for continued long-term growth, with HOKA leading performance in running and UGG evolving into a versatile lifestyle brand [5]

Core Insights - The Nasdaq index has surged nearly 50% since April, indicating potential overvaluation from a technical perspective, with a notable 6% increase since September [1] - Investors are encouraged to take advantage of the current market conditions to purchase high-quality large-cap stocks that are trading below their historical highs [2] Company Overview: Deckers Brands - Deckers Brands (DECK) is recognized for its strong management, solid balance sheet, and promising growth outlook, having outperformed the S&P 500 over the last decade [3][4] - The stock has increased approximately 1,100% over the past ten years, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 260% and Nike's 25% [4] - The growth of Deckers is largely attributed to its high-end running shoe brand HOKA, which has achieved a compound annual growth rate of around 50% over the last four years [7] Financial Performance - Deckers has experienced an average revenue growth of 19% from FY21 to FY25 and a 32% increase in GAAP earnings per share (EPS) [8] - Following a Q3 FY25 earnings release that provided weaker guidance, DECK stock fell approximately 48% from its all-time highs [11] - The stock is currently trading at a 30% discount to the Retail-Wholesale sector and 22% below the S&P 500, despite outperforming both by about four times over the past decade [16] Technical Analysis - Deckers stock found support at its long-term 200-week moving average, which has historically indicated potential for upward movement [12] - The stock is trading in line with its 10-year median at 18.1X forward 12-month earnings, suggesting it may be undervalued [16] Future Outlook - Revenue for Deckers is projected to grow by 9% in FY26 and 7% in FY27, with adjusted earnings expected to remain flat year-over-year in FY26 before increasing by 8% in FY27 [15] - The company maintains a robust balance sheet with $1.7 billion in cash and equivalents, $3.8 billion in total assets, and no debt, positioning it well to navigate economic uncertainties [17]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a significant player in the footwear and accessories industry, with a market cap of $17.6 billion, offering products under well-known brands like UGG, HOKA, and Teva [1][2] Financial Performance - DECK reported Q1 results with an EPS of $0.93, surpassing Wall Street expectations of $0.68, and revenue of $964.5 million, exceeding forecasts of $899 million [6] - For Q2, DECK anticipates revenue between $1.38 billion and $1.42 billion [6] Stock Performance - DECK's stock has experienced a 47% decline from its 52-week high of $223.98, reached on January 30 [3] - Over the past three months, DECK stock gained 16.9%, outperforming the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), which gained 13.7% [3] - Year-to-date, DECK shares have dipped 41.6% and fallen 23.9% over the past 52 weeks, underperforming XLY's YTD gains of 7.3% and 25.1% [4] Market Position and Challenges - DECK is categorized as a large-cap stock, indicating its size and influence in the industry [2] - The company faces challenges, including anticipated tariff costs of $185 million due to potential duty hikes in Vietnam, a 110-basis-point decline in gross margin, and weaknesses in HOKA's U.S. direct-to-consumer business [5] - Elevated inventory levels and rising selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses are additional strains on the company [5] Competitive Landscape - In the competitive footwear and accessories market, Crocs, Inc. (CROX) has shown resilience with a 29.2% decline year-to-date, but has outperformed DECK with 39.8% losses over the past 52 weeks [7]

Core Insights - Deckers Outdoor Corporation's international business is a key growth driver, with HOKA and UGG showing strong performance abroad, particularly in the first quarter of fiscal 2026 where international revenues increased by 49.7% year over year to $463.3 million, significantly outperforming U.S. sales [1][10] International Business Performance - HOKA's international growth is robust, especially in the EMEA region, with record European reorders and strong consumer acquisition. Key products like Bondi, Clifton, and Arahi are leading sales, with Bondi and Clifton being top U.S. running franchises and doubling volumes in China for spring/summer 2025 [2] - UGG has also seen strong international growth, particularly in Europe and China. The brand's 365 strategy has expanded its appeal beyond cold-weather items, with new styles like the PeakMod clog gaining popularity, supported by effective marketing campaigns [3] Infrastructure and Strategic Investments - To meet rising demand, Deckers has invested in infrastructure, including changing its EMEA logistics provider and opening new stores in cities like Berlin, Milan, and various locations in China. These initiatives aim to enhance retail presence and build long-term brand equity [4] Future Outlook - Management anticipates that international markets will continue to outpace U.S. growth, with HOKA positioned as the fastest-growing brand and UGG expanding its seasonal and demographic reach. The goal is to increase international sales to 50% of total revenues, creating a more balanced and resilient business model [5] Competitive Landscape - In comparison, Steven Madden, Ltd. reported an 8% year-over-year increase in international revenues for the second quarter of 2025, while Wolverine World Wide, Inc. saw a 15.7% increase to $250 million, both outpacing U.S. sales [6][7][8] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Deckers shares have declined by 46.3% year to date, contrasting with the industry's decline of 9.6%. The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16.80X, below the industry average of 18.22X [9][12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Deckers' fiscal 2026 earnings suggests a slight decline of 0.6%, while fiscal 2027 indicates an 8.3% increase, with recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for both fiscal years [13]

Core Insights - Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (WWW) reported a strong second quarter in 2025, with revenues increasing by 11.5% year over year to $474.2 million, driven by brand momentum, particularly from Saucony and Merrell [1][10] Brand Performance - Saucony achieved record second-quarter revenues, rising 41.5% year over year, with a gross margin expansion of 560 basis points, supported by successful product launches and expanded lifestyle distribution [2][10] - Merrell experienced a revenue growth of 10.7% and nearly 600 basis points of margin expansion, bolstered by modernized trail offerings and increased lifestyle footwear appeal [3][10] - Sweaty Betty narrowed its revenue decline to 6.1% while improving margins by over 500 basis points, focusing on restoring its premium positioning through targeted campaigns [4] - The Wolverine brand also showed progress with new premium product introductions, contributing to overall growth alongside Saucony and Merrell [5] Competitive Landscape - Key competitors in the footwear industry include Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Tapestry, Inc., and Urban Outfitters Inc., with Deckers showing strong performance through its flagship brands HOKA and UGG [6][7][8][9] Financial Metrics - WWW's shares have gained 29.3% year to date, contrasting with a 1.5% decline in the industry [11] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.78X, significantly below the industry average of 30.45X [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WWW's financial 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 44%, with a 17.2% increase projected for 2026 [13]