Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks of an unexpected downturn in the US economy, emphasizing the importance of monitoring unemployment rates and the implications of tariffs on trade and economic growth [1][5]. Economic Forecasts - The IMF has revised the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January [2][3]. - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points [2]. Key Economic Indicators - A rise in the unemployment rate to the range of 4.4-4.6% could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [1][5]. - The article highlights the uncertainty in trade, industrial production, and economic growth due to the implementation of Tariff 2.0 [1]. Currency Trends - There is a possibility of further depreciation of the US dollar, which may lead to an appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, similar to the situation observed in August-September 2024 [1][9]. - The potential for a gradual depreciation of the dollar may continue if the US government pursues fiscal balance and creates more room for interest rate cuts [9]. Economic Scenarios - The article outlines three possible scenarios for the US economy, indicating the risks associated with stagflation and the "triple whammy" of stocks, bonds, and currency [7][6].