Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, with increased government and industry focus, broader coverage, and stronger coordination among policies and market mechanisms [31]. Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights that the biggest expectation gap in the global macroeconomic landscape for the first half of 2025 is the disproof of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [21]. - It mentions that the focus of tariffs may shift towards validating economic data, with potential concerns about recession if the U.S. unemployment rate rises to 4.6% [21]. - The impact of geopolitical risks, particularly since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is noted as a significant factor in global macroeconomic conditions and asset pricing [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous research iteration to approach the truth, highlighting that growth comes from persistent denial and reconstruction in research [2][26]. Group 1: Research Framework and Goals - The team is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade in 2025, focusing on restructuring the research framework and systematically displaying research outcomes [2]. - The guiding principle is to provide valuable independent research results that are grounded in reality and actionable [2]. Group 2: Economic Insights - The article discusses the shift in the economic "three drivers" from manufacturing to services, indicating that as GDP per capita reaches $10,000 to $30,000 and urbanization hits 70%, service sector demand will accelerate [28]. - It notes that new consumption policies emphasize long-term strategies for domestic demand expansion rather than short-term stimuli, while also providing support for manufacturing to counter tariff impacts [29]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - The concept of "anti-involution" is presented as a new phase of supply-side structural reform, which is gaining more attention from both the government and industry, with a broader scope and stronger coordination [31].

致投资者 研究是在持续迭代的过程中不断逼近真相，是一项"久久为功"的工作，只有永不停步的否定 与重构，才能不断成长。作为研究型团队，我们始终坚守初心，坚持研究为本、求真务实、勤勉 服务、敬畏市场。 2025年是团队全面升级的一年，在新的征程中，我们推进了研究框架的体系重构、研究成果 的系统展示，秉持"研之有理、落地有声"的理念，致力于提供真正有价值的独立研究成果。 感谢您一直以来的支持与信任，让我们共同进步，共创未来！ 赵伟 敬上 2025.8.16 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 经济学博士，同时担任中国证券业协会首席经济学家委员会委员、中国首席经济学家论坛理事等社会职务。2023 年7月6日，应邀参加李强总理经济形势座谈会。 曾获沪上金融家"金融行业创新人物"、服务经济高质量发展最佳首席经济学家等称号；曾获新财富最佳分析师、 水晶球最佳分析师、金牛奖最具价值首席分析师等行业奖项。 代表作《转型之机》、《蜕变·新生》等，系统阐释了中国经济转型阶段的特征与机遇，为理论研究与实务操作 提供重要支持。 申万宏源宏观首席分析师 复旦大学经济学博士、曼彻斯特大学访问学者，曾任国金证券宏观首席分析师、东方证券财富管理总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump raises concerns about the independence of monetary policy, with possible implications for inflation, fiscal stability, the dollar's status, and market performance [1] Group 1: Potential Impacts of a New Fed Chair - Increased risk of stagflation due to potential policy shifts [1] - Heightened fiscal concerns as a result of a politically influenced Fed [1] - Weakened dollar and capital flight if the Fed's independence is compromised [1] - Possible market turmoil leading to simultaneous declines in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1] Group 2: Candidates for Fed Chair - Main candidates include Waller, Hassett, and Walsh, with Milan emerging as a potential dark horse due to his dovish stance and advocacy for reduced Fed independence [1] - Other candidates consist of current Fed officials like Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan, as well as financial institution representatives and former government economists [1] Group 3: Candidate Statements - Waller emphasizes the need for the Fed to focus on its work rather than presidential comments, suggesting a 25 basis point rate cut in July is reasonable [2] - Hassett acknowledges the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence while also advocating for a reassessment of interest rate paths [2] - Walsh supports the idea of a rate cut and expresses willingness to lead the Fed if called upon by the President [2]

Group 1 - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1] - China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $756.4 billion, marking the first increase since March, with a rise of $1 million [1] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, having increased its holdings by $12.6 billion [1] Group 2 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, a record high, with a growth rate exceeding expectations [2] - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, it would equate to $280,000 per household and $108,000 per person [3] - The fiscal gap continues to widen due to increased interest payments on the national debt, exacerbated by tax cuts and the lifting of the debt ceiling [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with potential impacts on the demand for U.S. Treasuries as economic conditions evolve [5] - Analysts suggest that if stock market momentum weakens, there may be a renewed influx of funds into U.S. Treasuries [5] - The volatility in interest rates and the correlation between assets may affect the "safety premium" associated with U.S. Treasuries [5]

Group 1 - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1] - China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $756.4 billion, marking the first increase since March, with a slight rise of $1 million [1] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, having increased its holdings by $12.6 billion [1] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, a record high, with significant implications for American households, equating to $280,000 per household and $108,000 per person [2] - The expansion of the national debt is attributed to the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has loosened borrowing limits and reduced tax revenues, leading to soaring interest payments on the debt [2] - Concerns over debt and deficit pressures have led to criticism of the Federal Reserve by the Trump administration [2] Group 3 - A potential slowdown in the U.S. economy could lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries as risk appetite weakens, especially if stock market momentum diminishes [4] - Ongoing concerns about "stagflation" due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may contribute to a weaker dollar, with high volatility expected in both the stock and bond markets [4] - Changes in interest rate volatility and asset correlation may impact the "safety premium" associated with U.S. Treasuries [4]

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 million, marking the first increase since March [1]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $126 million, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $487 million [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors reversing from net selling to net buying of $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in long-term US securities was $192.3 billion, driven primarily by private foreign investors who net bought $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Implications - A report suggests that if the momentum in US stocks weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased investment in US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report indicates a significant increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, with China slightly increasing its holdings for the first time since March 2023, reflecting a potential shift in investment strategies among global investors [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $756.4 billion, with a slight increase of $1 million, marking the first increase since March 2023 [1][2]. - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, having increased its holdings by $12.6 billion [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Economic Outlook - The report highlights that foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities by $192.3 billion in June, driven primarily by private foreign investments [1]. - Analysts suggest that if U.S. stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into U.S. Treasuries [2]. - Concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasuries [2].

Group 1 - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1] - China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $756.4 billion, marking a $1 billion increase, the first increase since March [1] - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3] Group 2 - The latest TIC report indicates that foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. securities by $77.8 billion in June, with private foreign capital contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign capital contributing $70.5 billion [1] - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities by $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign capital, which net increased by $154.6 billion [1] - Analysts suggest that if U.S. stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased inflows into U.S. Treasuries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].