关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 赵宇、陈达飞、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （1.24-1.30） 重点推介 热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ 1.全球债市恐慌再现，美国上演"股债汇三杀" 近期海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"，触发因素是美欧格陵兰争端、丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美债投 资、高市早苗提前选举。流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 2.美债短期风险可控，长期根本矛盾未解决 2026年美国紧财政政治动力已减弱下，减税、增加供给侧投资，令赤字率或上升至6.8%。关税风险、美 国引发的地缘风险或长期存在，美债或不再安全。 3.常规政策区间，不宜期待联储QE或YCC 为缓和债务风险，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施，压低实际利率。在非战争或非零利率状态下， 美联储极不可能通过QE或YCC压降美债利率。 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"速见系列" 第21期: 《1月FOMC例会解读与展望》 2 、"洞见系列" 第112期: 《美国通胀风险有多大 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月26日，周四——2026美联储首次利率决议 美联储利率决议是黄金外汇市场的大事，尤其是开年首次决议。 本周四3：00，美联储将公布利率决议结果，金融机构认为将维持3.5~3.75%的利率不变，原因是美国的 就业市场和通胀数据在过去一段时间平稳运行。 虽然美国ICE依旧在大力抓捕非法移民，但非农就业人口数据已经稳定在5万人上下。11月份是5.6万 人，12月份是5万人。稳定的就业市场降低了美联储降息的紧迫性。 ▲ATFX图 过去5年，美国的通胀率数据经历了先迅速下降，之后进入平台期的转变。2024年年中至今，美国核心 CPI和PCE物价指数年率，上限3.3%，下限2.8%，围绕3%上下波动。这是一个略微高于2%温和标准的 水平，但总体处于健康状态。美联储也无无需为压制通胀而刻意调整利率。 ▲ATFX图 加拿大经济严重依赖对美国的出口，但美国持续提高加拿大的进口关税和限制。2024年加拿大出口总值 5496.2亿美元，其中77%出口流向美国。如此单一的出口结构，注定加拿大难以承受来自美国的贸易壁 垒。 特朗普上台以来，对加拿大增加关税的措施几乎没有停止过。2025年2月加税25%、 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Japanese market due to rising long-term bond yields and potential fiscal irresponsibility associated with the consumption tax reduction policy [1][2]. Core Insights - The Japanese government's push for a consumption tax reduction is primarily driven by electoral considerations, raising concerns about fiscal responsibility and investor confidence [1][5]. - Short-term economic growth may be stimulated by the tax reduction, but the long-term effects are expected to diminish, leading to increased uncertainty in the market [6][8]. - The current macroeconomic environment in Japan has shifted from deflation to inflation, with the yen depreciating, which complicates the reliance on expansionary fiscal policies [9][10]. Summary by Sections Consumption Tax Reduction Policy - The consumption tax reduction policy has gained momentum since last year and is expected to be implemented in early 2026, despite previous attempts failing [3]. - The political landscape, including the formation of a reform alliance, has led to a consensus among major parties on the tax reduction [4]. Market Reactions - The market's strong reaction to the consumption tax reduction stems from doubts about the government's commitment to responsible fiscal policy and the potential for the tax cut to become permanent [5][17]. - Investors are particularly concerned about the lack of a clear plan to cover the annual 5 trillion yen revenue shortfall resulting from the tax cut [5][6]. Economic Impact - While the tax reduction may provide a temporary boost to economic growth, it is unlikely to have lasting effects, and the potential for increased government debt issuance raises sustainability concerns [6][8]. - The report highlights that Japan's long-term bond yields have risen sharply, with the 40-year government bond yield exceeding 4% [6]. Political Considerations - The government's decision to pursue the tax reduction is seen as a strategy to consolidate support ahead of elections, which may undermine fiscal credibility [7][20]. - The outcome of the upcoming elections could significantly impact the yen's exchange rate and the overall economic landscape, with different scenarios leading to varying degrees of fiscal responsibility [18][19]. Financial Risks - Japan faces the risk of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency, reminiscent of the 2022 UK Truss crisis, if the government continues with irresponsible fiscal policies [11][13]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance will take measures to stabilize market sentiment, such as adjusting bond purchase strategies [12][14].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent market turmoil characterized by a simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar, while gold and silver prices reached historical highs. The S&P 500 index fell by 0.4%, and the dollar index decreased by 1.9% to 97.5 [2][124] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.7% to $65.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold prices rose by 7.5% to $4936.0 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices surged by 15.4% to $102.9 per ounce [2][49][124] - The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy during its January meeting but revised its 2026 core CPI forecast (excluding fresh food) upward to 1.9% and its GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [2][98][124] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of various stock indices, noting that developed market indices experienced declines, while emerging market indices mostly rose. For instance, the Brazilian IBOVESPA index increased by 8.5% [3][8] - In the U.S. market, most sectors within the S&P 500 saw gains, particularly energy, materials, and communication services, which rose by 3.1%, 2.6%, and 1.1% respectively [8][9] - The Hang Seng Index and its sub-indices, such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Technology Index, all experienced declines, with the former down by 0.7% [14][15] Group 3 - The article notes that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remained stable, while yields on 10-year bonds in developed countries mostly increased, with Italy's yield rising by 10.1 basis points to 3.52% [20][21] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields mostly decreased, with Turkey's yield increasing by 122.0 basis points to 29.29%, while India's yield fell by 1.4% to 6.66% [26][27] Group 4 - The article reports on U.S. consumer spending, indicating that the actual PCE consumption for November rose by 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, reflecting robust holiday season spending [92][93] - The article also mentions that the U.S. unemployment claims for the week ending January 17 were 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000, indicating a stable labor market [101][102] Group 5 - The article discusses President Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum, where he indicated a pause on tariffs and expressed confidence in the U.S. economy, projecting a 5.4% growth rate for Q4 [83][84] - Trump's comments included a commitment to nuclear energy development and a call for Congress to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% for one year, reflecting his administration's economic priorities [84]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 一、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普表态暂缓关税，日央行1月按兵不动 美国股债汇三杀，金银不断刷新历史新高。 当周，标普500下跌0.4%；10Y美债收益率持平；美元指数下 跌1.9%至97.5，离岸人民币升至6.94；布油价格上涨2.7%至65.9美元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨7.5%至 4936.0美元/盎司 COMEX银价格上涨15.4%至102.9美元/盎司。 日央行1月例会按兵不动，上修2026年通胀、经济增速预测。 日央行将2026年核心CPI（不含新鲜食品） 预测上修至1.9%，实际GDP增速预测上修至1.0%；日本12月CPI同比回落至2.1%，但核心通胀仍稳健； 美国11月实际PCE消费环比0.3%，符合市场预期。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：美国股债汇三杀，金银不断刷新历史新高 当周，发达市场股指悉数下跌、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，德国DAX、法国 CAC40、英国富时100分别下跌1.6%、1.4%、0.9% ...

"大财政"系列之二 2026 年 01 月 25 日 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ ——"大财政"系列之二 美国股债汇三杀冲击下，特朗普再度 TACO，撤回对欧洲关税。短期市场冲击虽阶段性缓和，但 债务、地缘等根本矛盾并未解决。随着债务持续扩张，特朗普采取更多"柔性"金融抑制措施。 《财政"锦标赛"：美欧日，谁更积 一、热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ （三）向后看，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施压低实际利率，但不宜期待美联储 YCC 市场往往误认为债务扩张将导致美、日债务崩盘，未来或将暴发债务违约风险。但对发达货币主 权国而言，央行拥有近乎无限的本币发行能力，实质性违约的可能性较低。债务危机在新兴市场 多表现为信用风险，在发达的拥有主权货币的国家则多表现为货币贬值和通胀预期上升。 （一）全球债市恐慌重演，美国上演"股债汇三杀"，特朗普再度 TACO 1 月 20 日，海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"。美欧日国债遭集体抛售，权益等风险资产普跌， 美元走弱，黄金等避险资产走强。日本 40 年国债利率突破 4.0%，10 年美债利率升至 4.3%，30 年英债升至 5.2%，美元跌至 98.54，纳指 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariff threats have led to significant volatility in global financial markets, particularly affecting U.S. assets [1] - U.S. markets experienced a "triple whammy" with all major indices declining: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.76%, the S&P 500 dropped over 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.39% [3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.41%, closing at 98.642, marking its lowest point in about two weeks [3] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by over 6 basis points, reaching 4.29%, the highest level since mid-August of the previous year, indicating a sell-off in the bond market [5] - The rise in bond yields suggests a decrease in bond prices, reflecting a broader trend of asset sell-offs in the U.S. [5] - Increased safe-haven demand led to new highs in international gold and silver prices, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7] Group 3 - Trump's announcement of a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne aims to pressure French President Macron to join a proposed Gaza "peace committee" [7] - Despite Trump's threats, France currently has no intention of accepting the invitation to join the committee, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]

Market Overview - The global market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Trump, leading to significant sell-offs in U.S. stocks on January 20, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 870.74 points (1.76%) to 48,488.59 points, the Nasdaq Composite falling 2.39%, and the S&P 500 declining 2.06% [1][2] Technology Sector Impact - The technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the VIX index rising over 6% and surpassing the 20 mark, indicating deep investor concerns over escalating trade tensions. The index tracking the seven major U.S. tech companies fell by 3.06%, with Nvidia and Tesla both dropping over 4%, and Apple and Amazon declining more than 3% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks are also under pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 1.45% to 7,608.38 points. Notable declines include JinkoSolar down 12.46% to $25.825, and CenturyLink down 10.18% to $9.480. Several other Chinese stocks, including Bilibili and EHang, saw declines exceeding 5% [3][4] Precious Metals Surge - There is a significant influx of capital into the precious metals market, with gold prices rising above $4,760 per ounce and silver futures surpassing $95, both reaching historical highs. Analysts attribute this surge to increased demand for political risk hedging and a weakening dollar [6][7] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.41% to 98.642, marking its worst two-day performance in about a month, reflecting weakened confidence in dollar assets. Concurrently, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.287%, the highest since late August, contributing to a challenging environment for both stocks and bonds [7][8] Geopolitical Tensions - The market turmoil is largely driven by Trump's recent statements regarding Greenland and the imposition of tariffs on imports from several European countries, which are set to increase from 10% to 25%. The potential for a G7 summit proposed by French President Macron is under scrutiny, as Trump's participation remains uncertain, which could influence future trade discussions [9]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo made controversial remarks regarding Taiwan, echoing former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stance that "Taiwan's issues are Japan's issues" [1] - Japan's government debt has reached over 250% of its GDP, significantly higher than the United States, with interest payments consuming a substantial portion of tax revenue [3][4] - Japan's economy has contracted for the first time in a year and a half, with a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for the third quarter [3] Group 2 - The Japanese financial market is experiencing a rare "triple hit" of stock, bond, and currency declines, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping 3.22% and 10-year government bond yields reaching a new high of 1.76% since 2008 [4] - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, falling below 155 against the US dollar and 180 against the euro, exacerbating import costs and pushing companies to relocate production overseas [6] - The Japanese government has proposed a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, equivalent to 3.5% of Japan's GDP, with 17.7 trillion yen needing to be financed through debt [3]

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister, Taro Kono, made erroneous statements leading to heightened tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, prompting China to implement countermeasures such as suspending multiple exchanges and restricting Japanese seafood imports, which indirectly affects Japan's manufacturing supply chain [1] - Market risk aversion has surged, with investors concerned about regional stability, resulting in accelerated capital withdrawal from the Japanese market. Invesco strategist Kinoshita noted that the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations is a significant driver of the "sell Japan" trend [1] Group 2 - On November 21, Kono's cabinet announced a 21.3 trillion yen (approximately 140 billion USD) economic stimulus plan aimed at revitalizing the sluggish economy, which has raised fears of worsening Japan's fiscal situation [3] - Japanese government bonds have faced sell-offs, with bond yields rising for several consecutive days, and the 30-year bond yield reaching a historic high, indicating a potential collapse risk for the world's third-largest bond market [3] - The yen is under devaluation pressure, nearing the 160 mark, which approaches the intervention threshold set by the Bank of Japan [3] - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a significant drop of over 2,500 points in a single week, erasing all gains since Kono took office [3] Group 3 - Investors are worried that Japan may repeat the "mini-budget crisis" seen during former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss's tenure, where aggressive fiscal policies led to a collapse in market confidence [4] Group 4 - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, marking a return to negative growth after the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to weak domestic demand and export challenges from U.S. tariffs [6] - High valuations in technology stocks have led to correction pressures, compounded by fiscal risks, creating a vicious cycle of "sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currency" [6] - Analysts warn that if Kono loses policy credibility, the sell-off could extend to all Japanese assets, indicating that the current "sell Japan" trend is still in its early stages [6] - There is a critical need for the Kono administration to balance fiscal expansion with debt management; otherwise, prolonged diplomatic stalemates could lead to systemic crises [6] - Bloomberg analysis suggests Japan must find a balance between policy credibility and market stability to avoid a repeat of the "lost decade" [6]