| 候选人 | 当地时间 | | 观点言论 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沃勒 | 7/18 | | 美联储理事会成员专注于他们的工作，而非总统的言论。 | | | 7/30 | . | 7 月降息 25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶化后才下调利率。 | | (美联储现任理 | 8/1 | . | 我认为当前这种观望的态度过于谨慎，在我看来，没有正确平衡经济前景的风险，可能导致政策落后 | | 章） | | | 于形势变化。 | | | 8/1 | . | 美联储不应等到劳动力市场恶化才采取行动。 | | 哈塞特 | 7/14 | | 美联储在关税问题上"非常错误"。 | | (白宫国家经济 | 7/16 | ● | 美联储需要重新调整利率的路径,明确利率应当达到的水平。 | | 委员会主任 ) | 8/6 | . | 特朗普的首要任务是维护美联储的独立性。 | | | | . | （被问及美联储职位相关问题时）乐于探讨这一挑战。 | | | 7/17 | . | 如果由一个人领导美联储和财政部，协议会更容易达成。 | | 沃什 (美联储前理事) ...

Group 1 - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1] - China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $756.4 billion, marking the first increase since March, with a rise of $1 million [1] - Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, having increased its holdings by $12.6 billion [1] Group 2 - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, a record high, with a growth rate exceeding expectations [2] - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, it would equate to $280,000 per household and $108,000 per person [3] - The fiscal gap continues to widen due to increased interest payments on the national debt, exacerbated by tax cuts and the lifting of the debt ceiling [3] Group 3 - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with potential impacts on the demand for U.S. Treasuries as economic conditions evolve [5] - Analysts suggest that if stock market momentum weakens, there may be a renewed influx of funds into U.S. Treasuries [5] - The volatility in interest rates and the correlation between assets may affect the "safety premium" associated with U.S. Treasuries [5]

据证券时报，当地时间8月15日，美国财政部官网发布的6月国际资本流动报告（Treasury International Capital Data for June）（下称"TIC报告"）显示， 截至今年6月，外国投资者持 有美国国债总额达到9.1277万亿美元，较上月增加802亿美元。其中，中国持有美国国债规模 7564亿美元，较上月增持 1亿 美元，为今年3月以来首次增持美国国债。 美债后市如何 中金公司研报指出，一旦美股上涨动能弱化，风险偏好可能趋弱，对应流入美债的资金可能会 再度提高。美国经济最终会有所放缓，叠加风险偏好重新调整以及降息预期的抬升，美债需求 可能重新回暖。 截至今年6月， 持有美国国债规模前三的地区分别是日本、英国和中国，并都在6月增持美国 国债。 作为美国国债海外第一大债主，日本目前持有美国国债规模已达到1.1476万亿美元，较上月增 持126亿美元，延续今年以来不断增持美国国债的态势。第二大债主英国目前持有美国国债 8581亿美元，较上月大幅增持487亿美元。 中国截至今年6月持有美国国债规模7564亿美元，较上月增持1亿美元。自2022年4月以来，中 国持有美国国债规模始终低于1万 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 million, marking the first increase since March [1]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $126 million, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $487 million [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors reversing from net selling to net buying of $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in long-term US securities was $192.3 billion, driven primarily by private foreign investors who net bought $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Implications - A report suggests that if the momentum in US stocks weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased investment in US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - The TIC report indicates a significant increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, with China slightly increasing its holdings for the first time since March 2023, reflecting a potential shift in investment strategies among global investors [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China’s holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $756.4 billion, with a slight increase of $1 million, marking the first increase since March 2023 [1][2]. - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, having increased its holdings by $12.6 billion [2]. Group 2: Investment Trends and Economic Outlook - The report highlights that foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities by $192.3 billion in June, driven primarily by private foreign investments [1]. - Analysts suggest that if U.S. stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into U.S. Treasuries [2]. - Concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker U.S. dollar, impacting the demand for U.S. Treasuries [2].

Group 1 - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1] - China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities to $756.4 billion, marking a $1 billion increase, the first increase since March [1] - Japan remains the largest holder of U.S. Treasury securities at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3] Group 2 - The latest TIC report indicates that foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. securities by $77.8 billion in June, with private foreign capital contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign capital contributing $70.5 billion [1] - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of U.S. long-term securities by $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign capital, which net increased by $154.6 billion [1] - Analysts suggest that if U.S. stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased inflows into U.S. Treasuries [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Trump dismissing Powell is considered low due to the high difficulty, low reward, and significant risks involved. Trump is more likely to influence the Federal Reserve by announcing a successor in advance, but the impact on reshaping the Fed may be limited due to internal policy disagreements [1][3]. Group 1 - Trump's criticism of Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety," exacerbated by the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill," which indicates a growing reliance on pro-cyclical deficits, leading to high debt issuance costs and declining long-term bond acceptance [1]. - Pressuring the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "damaging tactic" to address fiscal anxiety, which may have immediate effects but significant side effects, increasing the probability of a "triple whammy" scenario in the stock, bond, and currency markets if investors perceive threats to the Fed's independence and transparency [1]. - The recent stablecoin legislation aims to alleviate the Treasury's debt issuance pressure while stripping the Fed of its authority to issue digital currency, thereby creating a "shadow Fed" represented by stablecoin issuers, which expands the White House's control and regulatory scope over the money supply [1]. Group 2 - Historical experience shows that the credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial. The case of Burns during Nixon's presidency illustrates the risks of political pressure leading to overly accommodative monetary policy, which can create long-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The loss of the Fed's independence and a "stop-and-go" approach to monetary policy could increase the risk of unanchored inflation expectations, making it costly to restore credibility once lost [3]. - The mechanisms designed to ensure the Fed's independence present three significant obstacles for Trump in achieving his rate cut goals [2][5].

Core Viewpoint - The political turmoil in Japan is causing significant ripples in the financial markets, with concerns about the country's fiscal outlook intensifying following the ruling coalition's defeat in the House of Councillors election [1]. Group 1: Political Developments - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition suffered losses in the recent elections, leading to increased calls within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) for his resignation [1][8]. - Several LDP members have publicly demanded Ishiba step down, indicating a loss of support following two election defeats [1][9]. - The LDP is facing its weakest parliamentary position in 70 years, having lost majority seats in both houses, which raises concerns about the party's future leadership [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the election results, the Japanese bond market showed signs of weakness, with prices of 20-year and 40-year government bonds declining and yields rising by 1 and 4 basis points respectively [1][6]. - The Japanese yen depreciated approximately 0.2% against the US dollar, trading at 147.7, while the stock market also faced pressure [1][5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn of a potential "triple decline" scenario for the yen, bonds, and stocks due to political uncertainty, which could lead to higher bond yields as Ishiba may need to make fiscal concessions to appease opposition parties and voters [5][7]. - The weak performance of the bond market reflects investor concerns over government fiscal expansion, with expectations of a steepening yield curve, particularly for long-term bonds [6][10]. - The ongoing political instability may hinder Japan's ability to effectively negotiate in international trade discussions, particularly with the US, which has threatened to impose tariffs on Japanese exports [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].