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第一上海:维持中国神华“买入”评级目标价47.7港元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 07:35
Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shenhua (01088), projecting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 58.8 billion, 58.7 billion, and 58.9 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 47.7 HKD [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - Overall performance meets expectations, showing positive signals of improvement quarter-on-quarter [1] - Due to the oversupply in the coal industry, the company's performance in the first three quarters was under pressure, with revenue of 213.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.37 billion yuan, down 13.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coal Business Analysis - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to the core coal business, with coal sales volume at 316.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [1] - In the third quarter, the company produced 86 million tons of commodity coal and sold 112 million tons, indicating some inventory reduction or external coal purchases [1] Group 3: Non-Coal Business Growth - Amid challenges in the coal sector, the company's electricity, railway, and port businesses demonstrated strong "ballast" effects [1] - The electricity segment benefited from a 7.8% year-on-year decrease in fuel costs due to falling coal prices, significantly improving profitability in this segment [1]