Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in first-tier cities is experiencing unprecedented declines, with secondary housing prices dropping significantly, indicating a loss of confidence among investors and homeowners [1][3]. Group 1: Price Decline Data - In June, the average price of second-hand homes in 100 cities fell by 0.75% month-on-month and 7.26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities showing a more alarming trend [1]. - The month-on-month decline in first-tier cities increased from 0.36% in May to 0.56% in June, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 0.81% and 0.76%, respectively [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Price Decline - The surge in second-hand housing listings is notable, with Beijing exceeding 150,000 listings and Shanghai surpassing 200,000, indicating a lack of confidence among speculators and resulting in oversupply [5]. - Market expectations have reversed, with buyers hesitant to purchase due to continuous price drops, creating a vicious cycle where falling prices lead to decreased transaction volumes, further driving down prices [6]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has reached 40 times, far exceeding residents' purchasing power, necessitating a return to more rational pricing, which forces landlords to lower prices significantly [7]. Group 3: Landlord Sentiment - Landlords in first-tier cities have shifted from a position of arrogance to one of resignation, as the rising number of listings reflects a collapse in owner sentiment [8]. - Many landlords are now opting to sell below market value to mitigate further losses, leading to a harsh reality in the market [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant decline, with all 100 cities reporting a month-on-month drop of 0.75% and a year-on-year drop of 7.26% in June [1][3] - First-tier cities are seeing an increasing rate of price decline, with June's drop reaching 0.56% compared to May's 0.36%, raising concerns among homeowners [1][3] - The overall trend indicates that even with short-term recovery measures, the long-term downward trend in the real estate market remains unchanged, as evidenced by previous policy impacts that only provided temporary relief [5] Group 2 - The surge in second-hand housing listings in first-tier cities, such as over 150,000 in Beijing and 200,000 in Shanghai, reflects a lack of confidence among investors and increasing downward pressure on prices [5][9] - A shift in market expectations is evident, with potential buyers becoming hesitant to purchase as they anticipate further price drops, creating a vicious cycle of declining prices and reduced demand [9][11] - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has reached 40, indicating that housing prices are unsustainable for local residents, leading to significant price reductions during negotiations [9][11]