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北上深,为何仍不彻底“取消限购”?
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-28 02:50
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting approaches of Guangzhou and the "North-South" cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen) regarding the lifting of housing purchase restrictions, highlighting Guangzhou's aggressive stance compared to the cautious approach of the latter cities [1][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Differences - Guangzhou has announced a complete removal of purchase restrictions by September 30, 2024, aiming to stabilize its declining housing market [2][4]. - In contrast, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are taking a gradual approach, with Beijing expected to lift restrictions by August 2025, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen [2][5]. Group 2: Market Pressures - Guangzhou's decision to lift restrictions is driven by significant market pressure, with a reported decline of over 12% in second-hand home prices within a year and a prolonged inventory turnover period exceeding 24 months in some areas [7][9]. - The reliance on land finance in Guangzhou, which exceeds 40%, has also pressured the city to stimulate the housing market through the removal of restrictions [9][10]. Group 3: Demand Structure - The demand structure in Guangzhou is primarily local, with 75% of housing priced below 5 million, contrasting with the broader appeal of properties in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen to national wealth [10][20]. - The gradual lifting of restrictions in Guangzhou has been accompanied by measures to mitigate speculative buying, such as price registration mechanisms and property tax trials [11][12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While a complete removal of restrictions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely in the long term, it is deemed difficult in the short term due to the need for multiple conditions to be met [4][25]. - The article suggests that the future approach for these cities will likely involve incremental adjustments rather than an outright removal of restrictions, maintaining a cautious stance to prevent market overheating [26][27].
“鬼城”又添一座!房价从“2万多跌到4000元”,却依旧无人问津
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 05:56
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Langfang has experienced a dramatic decline, with prices dropping from over 20,000 yuan per square meter to around 4,000 yuan, reflecting a significant downturn in the once-thriving property market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Historical Context - Langfang was once considered a "pearl of the Beijing-Tianjin corridor," attracting many young professionals due to its proximity to Beijing and significantly lower housing prices [1]. - Between 2014 and 2017, the housing market boomed, with prices rising from 8,000 yuan per square meter to 15,000 yuan by the end of 2016, and some areas even exceeding 20,000 yuan [3]. - The introduction of strict purchase restrictions in March 2017, requiring non-local buyers to have three years of social security or tax payments, led to a sharp decline in demand and subsequent price drops [3][5]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - As of 2024, housing prices in Langfang's main urban areas are generally between 4,000 and 5,000 yuan per square meter, with some remote areas dropping to over 3,000 yuan [3][5]. - In Yanjiao, prices have plummeted from nearly 40,000 yuan per square meter to just over 10,000 yuan, representing a decline of over 70% [5]. - Many properties remain unoccupied, with high vacancy rates observed in new developments, as many owners have never moved in or even renovated their units [5]. Group 3: Economic and Social Factors - Langfang's economic foundation is weak, primarily relying on traditional manufacturing industries, which offer limited job opportunities and lower salaries compared to Beijing [5]. - The average salary in Langfang is over 30% lower than in Beijing, contributing to a slowdown in population growth and even negative growth in some areas [5]. - Commuting issues exacerbate the situation, with long travel times to Beijing leading to decreased quality of life for residents [7]. Group 4: Market Stimulus Efforts - To stimulate the housing market, various promotional strategies have been employed, such as low down payments and incentives like free parking and renovations [7]. - Current rental prices for a 100 square meter apartment in Langfang are around 2,000 yuan per month, while property prices range from 400,000 to 500,000 yuan [7].
一线房价也扛不住了!从傲娇到低头,业主心态崩了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 04:59
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a significant decline, with all 100 cities reporting a month-on-month drop of 0.75% and a year-on-year drop of 7.26% in June [1][3] - First-tier cities are seeing an increasing rate of price decline, with June's drop reaching 0.56% compared to May's 0.36%, raising concerns among homeowners [1][3] - The overall trend indicates that even with short-term recovery measures, the long-term downward trend in the real estate market remains unchanged, as evidenced by previous policy impacts that only provided temporary relief [5] Group 2 - The surge in second-hand housing listings in first-tier cities, such as over 150,000 in Beijing and 200,000 in Shanghai, reflects a lack of confidence among investors and increasing downward pressure on prices [5][9] - A shift in market expectations is evident, with potential buyers becoming hesitant to purchase as they anticipate further price drops, creating a vicious cycle of declining prices and reduced demand [9][11] - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has reached 40, indicating that housing prices are unsustainable for local residents, leading to significant price reductions during negotiations [9][11]