Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is facing renewed oversupply pressure, leading to a five-day decline in oil prices due to OPEC's withdrawal of production cuts, U.S. tariffs impacting demand, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Oil prices have dropped for five consecutive trading days, with WTI crude settling at $64.35 per barrel, down 1.24%, and Brent crude at $66.89 per barrel, down 1.11% [1][2] - The market is reacting to uncertainty regarding U.S. President Trump's potential measures to restrict Russian energy exports, which has exacerbated the already unclear supply-demand signals [2][4] Group 2: OPEC and Supply Dynamics - OPEC has fully withdrawn its voluntary production cuts, leading to a resurgence of global oil supply surplus pressure, particularly as the U.S. summer travel season ends and seasonal demand weakens [3][4] - Saudi Arabia has increased the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude for September shipments to Asia by $3.20 per barrel above the Oman/Dubai average, compared to an increase of $2.20 per barrel in August [2][3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The planned meeting between Trump, Putin, and Ukrainian President Zelensky raises concerns about potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports, adding to market uncertainty [4] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, effective in 21 days, which could suppress emerging market oil consumption and further weaken demand [3][4] Group 4: Market Mechanisms and Signals - The EIA reported a larger-than-expected draw of 3 million barrels from U.S. crude oil inventories, yet oil prices showed little reaction, indicating a disconnect between market fundamentals and price movements [4] - The current situation reflects a "attention shift" phenomenon where macro uncertainties overshadow positive fundamental signals, leading to potential volatility in oil prices [4]