Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The situation in the Middle East may further escalate, with the supply side remaining tight due to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Oil prices are highly volatile driven by news, and bullish call spreads are recommended [6] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $93.31, closing at $101.18, with a 7.09% increase and a trading volume of 34.06 million lots. Brent's opening was $100.64, closing at $106.29, up 4.32% with 42.95 million lots traded. SC's opening was 756 yuan/barrel, closing at 763.5 yuan/barrel, up 3.11% with 10.26 million lots traded [5] - **News**: Iran is considering a management model for the Strait of Hormuz similar to the Suez Canal and charging tolls. The US will suspend attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure until April 6 but continues to strengthen military deployment in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz transport is interrupted, and cumulative production cuts may reach 8 million barrels per day [5][6] - **Suggestion**: Consider bullish call spreads due to high price volatility [6] 2. Industry News - Ukraine may slow down attacks on the Russian oil industry if Russia stops attacking its energy facilities [7] - Iran has no direct dialogue with the US, only communicating through intermediaries [7] - The Mandeb Strait has become an important channel for Middle - Eastern crude oil transportation, with 4.14 million barrels per day passing through in March, up from 2.95 million barrels per day in February [7] - Asian buyers are seeking alternative pricing mechanisms for Saudi oil. The premium of Saudi's flagship Arab Light crude oil is expected to soar to about $40 per barrel in May, compared to $2.50 in April [7][8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, and various oil price and consumption data, but specific data values are not described in detail [10][15][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, significantly impact the energy and commodity markets. Central bank policies and economic data also influence market sentiment and asset prices. Summary by Directory Overnight Night Market Trends - **Energy Futures**: WTI crude oil futures rose 5.39% to $105.01 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.26% to $108.75 per barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and global energy supply issues supported the price increase [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.36% to $4540.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.55% to $70.18 per ounce. Geopolitical tensions and central bank policies boosted prices [5]. - **Base Metals**: Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum up 4.52% at $3445.0 per ton, LME zinc up 2.15% at $3182.0 per ton, etc. [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: Domestic futures contracts mostly declined, with palm oil up over 2% and ethylene glycol up over 1%. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and PVC fell over 3%, and others also had significant drops [7]. Important News Macro News - US President Trump made statements about Iran, including the desire to "seize Iran's oil resources" and threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities if negotiations fail [9][11]. - Iran is considering withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and implementing stricter regulations on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [9]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) rose 3.5% to 1752.54 points [10]. - Fed officials expressed views on inflation, interest rates, and the balance sheet, and market pricing shifted to expect rate cuts this year [13][14]. - Iran's parliament passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is pressuring the Houthi rebels [14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Mandeb Strait is becoming an important channel for Middle East crude oil transportation, with 4.14 million barrels per day passing through in March, up from 2.95 million barrels per day in February [16]. - Saudi Aramco is finalizing the cost of oil for May shipments, and the premium for its flagship Arab Light crude is expected to soar to about $40 per barrel [16]. Metal Futures - An Indonesian stainless steel producer raised its opening price by $30 per ton [19]. - The market regulator announced measures to address "involutionary" competition in key industries [19]. - Indonesia plans to raise the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore [19]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted margin ratios and price limits for some contracts during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival [19]. - An aluminum plant in the UAE was attacked, and three aluminum plants are expected to cut production by a total of about 2.63 million tons [20]. Black Futures - Tangshan lifted the heavy pollution weather emergency response [22]. - Global iron ore shipments decreased, while Chinese port arrivals increased [24]. - Silicon manganese plants plan to cut production by about 30% starting April 1, and the national manganese alloy enterprise monthly emission reduction is expected to be 221,000 tons [24]. Agricultural Futures - Rain in Argentina helped improve the soybean crop rating, and the harvest is expected to start soon [26]. - Soybean压榨量 has decreased slightly in recent weeks, and the full - month forecast is 8.2 million tons [26]. - Cotton planting intentions in Xinjiang may decline by 3% - 5% [26]. - Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel mixing policy [28]. - National soybean oil and palm oil inventories decreased [28]. - The state has started central frozen pork reserve purchases to support pig prices [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in March 1 - 20 increased by 0.92% [28]. - More sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - cane crushing season [29]. - Brazil's soybean and corn production forecasts were adjusted [29]. - US soybean export inspections were lower than expected [29]. - Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 74.3% as of March 28 [31]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.24%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down. The market turnover increased [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index hit a new low. Four new stocks were listed [33]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission plans to implement a paper - less securities market system in November [34]. - Multiple ETF products were approved for listing [35]. - A well - known fund manager's portfolio changes and outlook were disclosed [35]. - iQiyi applied for listing in Hong Kong and plans to repurchase shares [37]. Industry - The market regulator addressed "involutionary" competition in key industries [38]. - Multiple departments issued the "Intelligent Shipping 2030 Action Plan" [38]. - China's commercial space achieved a milestone with the successful launch of the Lijian - 2 rocket [38]. - Hangzhou adjusted its housing provident fund policy [38]. - A Chinese motorcycle brand achieved a historic breakthrough in a world - class motorcycle race [39]. Overseas - US officials made statements about Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and military plans [41]. - Fed officials had different views on interest rates in the context of the Middle East conflict [42][43]. - The Japanese central bank governor and government took measures related to interest rates and budgets [45]. - South Korea started a financial emergency response mechanism [45]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.11% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down. European stocks rose, and Asia - Pacific stocks fell [46][47]. - Nasdaq reformed the Nasdaq 100 index access rules [48]. Commodities - G7 officials met to assess the impact of the Middle East situation on energy markets and planned to take coordinated actions [49]. - Energy and precious metal prices rose, and base metals mostly increased [49][50]. Bonds - The Chinese inter - bank bond market heated up, and US Treasury yields fell. The US Treasury plans to discuss private credit market risks [51][53]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, and the Indian central bank implemented new foreign exchange regulations [54].

Group 1 - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is nearing a blockade, leading Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, to begin cutting oil production, following similar actions by the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq [1][3] - Saudi Arabia's daily oil production is approximately 10 million barrels, with an export volume of about 7 million barrels. Due to the blockade, Saudi Aramco has rerouted some oil exports to the Red Sea, but pipeline capacity is insufficient to handle the full export volume [3][4] - The price of WTI crude oil surged over 30%, reaching a peak of $119.48 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose nearly 29%, hitting $119.5 per barrel [4] Group 2 - Brent crude oil's recent contract premium over six-month forward contracts exceeded $36, marking a historical high due to supply tightness caused by the Iran conflict [5] - The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-essential government personnel from Saudi Arabia due to security risks, advising remaining staff to shelter in place [5][6] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have destroyed a U.S. military helicopter base in Kuwait, indicating escalating military tensions in the region [7]

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price of crude oil to Asia for April, marking the first price increase in five months, with Arab Light crude oil's price anticipated to rise by approximately $1 per barrel, returning to levels seen in December of the previous year [1] - The price adjustment is driven by two main factors: increased Indian demand for Middle Eastern crude to replace some Russian supply due to disruptions in Russian energy infrastructure, and escalating military tensions between the US and Iran, raising concerns over potential oil supply interruptions [1] - Saudi Arabia is preparing for possible supply disruptions by increasing oil production and export levels, with data showing that the average daily crude oil transport volume reached 7.3 million barrels in the first 24 days of February, the highest level since April 2023, and up by over 400,000 barrels from January [1] Group 2 - As a key supplier in the global oil market, Saudi Arabia's pricing decisions directly impact the procurement costs for Asian refiners, and the upcoming price increase indicates a shift in Saudi Arabia's outlook on Asian oil demand [2] - The OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this Sunday will further clarify the production policies for April, providing more insight into the arrangements of oil-producing countries [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The current situation is an off - season for crude oil demand. Due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories also decreased significantly, leading to a continuous reduction in overall oil product inventories. However, global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. With multiple geopolitical uncertainties and the weakening of the current cold snap, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm led to an unexpected reduction in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global crude oil floating storage is high, and the market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia in March 2025 by 30 cents per barrel. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiations in Muscat have "temporarily" ended, and there are uncertainties in the Iranian geopolitical situation. The U.S. has adjusted tariffs on India, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The Russia - Ukraine - U.S. talks have not made substantial progress on core issues, and the U.S. is seeking a cease - fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 0.91% to 476.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 471.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 478.8 yuan/ton, and an increase in open interest of 1649 to 45913 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars per barrel to 52.21 dollars per barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. On the evening of February 4, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 30, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day. Due to the winter storm, U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels per day to 13.215 million barrels per day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels per day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Among them, gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% month - on - month to 8.153 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.262 million barrels per day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% month - on - month to 4.31 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 4 million barrels per day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel and other oil products rebounded significantly month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% month - on - month [4].

Group 1: Gold Market - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term will end in May, raising concerns about the future monetary policy under his successor, Walsh, with investors worried that the rate-cutting path may come to an end [2] - Goldman Sachs believes the market may misinterpret Walsh's actual stance, suggesting a combination of rate cuts and balance sheet reduction to mitigate financial environment impacts, while still considering rate cuts and quantitative easing [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points in June and September, and does not expect a significant reduction in the balance sheet [2] - Gold experienced a significant drop last week but has rebounded this week, although there are warnings about potential tail risks in the downward movement [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Recent talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi did not yield breakthroughs, with both sides agreeing to exchange 157 prisoners, indicating ongoing tensions [4] - Saudi Aramco has reduced the price of "Arab Light" crude oil sold to Asia by $0.30 per barrel, marking the lowest price cut since 2020, suggesting that global oil supply exceeds demand [4] - The relationship between the U.S. and Iran is under scrutiny, with increasing tensions and U.S. military presence in nearby waters, indicating potential risks in the oil market [5] - Oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on maintaining a trading range between $61.50 and $66.45, and a potential further decline if prices break below $62.80 [5] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices fell significantly last week due to a sell-off in precious metals, breaking below the $5.64 support level, indicating a high probability of further declines [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is showing a bullish trend on the daily chart, with a recent upward movement in the hourly chart, indicating a potential support level at 52,780, with a further drop to 51,500 if this level is breached [8]

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, is expected to set the March price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers at a discount for the first time since December 2020 [1] - The decision comes amid ample supply in the market, indicating a shift in pricing strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have declined due to global supply abundance and uncertainties surrounding Venezuela's situation, indicating both short-term risks and long-term growth potential for the country's oil sector [1] Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Supply - Recent developments have introduced further downside risks to Venezuela's oil supply in the short term [1] - Long-term growth potential exists for Venezuela's energy sector, contingent on significant investments [1] Group 2: Investment Environment - The need for substantial investment in Venezuela's energy industry is highlighted, but foreign companies may be reluctant to invest unless the investment environment becomes more attractive or some form of assurance is provided [1] Group 3: Saudi Arabia's Pricing Strategy - Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has reduced the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, for the third consecutive month for Asian markets [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions have recently increased due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but risk aversion has cooled after several days of market digestion [1] - The world's largest gold ETF has reduced its holdings twice recently, with a significant cut of 5.43 tons on January 2, bringing total holdings to 1065.13 tons, indicating a slight decline in bullish sentiment towards gold [1] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihao believes that expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have driven gold prices higher, but the likelihood of a rate cut in January is low, suggesting investors should be cautious of short-term price corrections [1] - On the technical front, the market has shown strength with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $4416 and resistance at $4500 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil sales prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, with the price of its flagship Arab Light crude reaching a five-year low, indicating weak demand from Asian buyers [2] - The price spread between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to the highest level since August, reflecting an oversupply in the market [2] - Since April 2025, OPEC+ has been increasing production, leading to a situation where global supply exceeds demand, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) warning of significant oversupply pressures on oil prices [2] - On the technical side, the market has shown strong upward movement with a bullish daily close, and prices are above the 20-day moving average, with support at $57 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar is showing weakness, with potential to break previous lows, as geopolitical risks provide limited support and a rate cut cycle looms [3] - The U.S. job market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising from 4% at the beginning of last year to 4.6% in November, with projections indicating it may exceed 5% soon [3] - Employment market pressures may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, with potential cuts of up to 125 basis points to 2.25% by year-end if labor market conditions worsen [3] - Technically, the dollar index has formed a bearish pattern with a long upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating a failed challenge at key resistance levels [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong upward movement recently, breaking out of a previous consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains [4] - The market is expected to test support at the 52214 level during any pullbacks [4] Group 5: Copper Market - The copper market is exhibiting strong upward momentum, with indicators showing a bullish trend following a golden cross between the 20-day and 62-day moving averages [5] - There is potential for further price increases, with support at the 5.92 level [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about a potential oversupply of global crude oil that could depress prices, while allowing Asian traders to overlook developments in Venezuela [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Dubai benchmark crude's discount to Brent futures reached its widest level since August, indicating ample supply [1]. - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has reverted to a contango structure, characterized by recent contract prices being lower than future contracts, signaling bearish sentiment [1]. - The price differential between spot and Dubai benchmark prices is rapidly narrowing, suggesting weak demand [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The premium for Oman crude, preferred by major importing countries like China, has dropped from nearly $1 per barrel at the end of last month to near parity with Dubai benchmark prices [1]. - The price of UAE's Upper Zakum crude has been set at a discount of $0.35, marking the weakest level since December 2023 [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply has consistently exceeded demand due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries, leading to concerns in the market [5]. - Brent futures fell 18% last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2020, with several banks predicting further declines in oil prices [5]. - Saudi Aramco has lowered prices for its flagship Arab Light crude for the third consecutive month, reaching a five-year low in pricing differentials for major Asian customers [5]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical Events - U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of Maduro and partial blockade of oil tankers, could have disrupted Venezuelan oil exports, but the ample supply from the Middle East has alleviated such concerns [5]. - Chinese refineries, typically major buyers of Venezuelan crude, have not shown signs of urgently seeking alternatives like Iraqi Basrah crude [5]. Group 5: Sales and Inventory Issues - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for February shipment remain unsold, including grades like UAE's Upper Zakum and Qatar's Al-Shaheen, which is unusual as such transactions typically conclude by the end of December [6]. - The backlog of unsold oil indicates that Arabian Gulf crude has failed to find buyers for the fourth consecutive month, despite the region's historical ability to sell most of its crude supply [6].