与此同时，北京却上演了一出截然相反的"反转剧"。中国炼油商几乎在同一时间收到风控部门的通知："所有额度放开，有多少收多少！"山东地方炼油厂的 采购经理连夜飞往莫斯科，中石油甚至重启了尘封十年的西伯利亚输油管道调度协议。数据不会说谎：8月份中国装运的乌拉尔原油日均突破7.5万桶，比年 初暴涨两倍多！更令人震撼的是预订量——十月到十一月还有整整15船原油正在穿越北极航线！ 然而，平静之下暗流涌动。美国制裁的靴子最终落下，对印度能源命脉造成沉重打击。印度四大国营炼油厂（IOCL、HPCL、BPCL、MRPL）连夜召开紧 急会议，气氛凝重。印度斯坦石油公司的采购总监脸色铁青，当即宣布停止采购乌拉尔原油，转而紧急采购沙特原油作为替代。要知道，仅仅两个月前，他 们还沉浸在以折扣价购买俄罗斯石油带来的喜悦中，每日节省高达800万美元的成本。 制裁令一下，俄罗斯对印度的石油日出口量从118万桶断崖式下跌至不足40万桶，瞬间撕开了170万桶的巨大缺口，震动全球能源市场。 能源棋局：制裁下的弃子与赢家 2025年，一幕由美国制裁引发的能源格局巨变正在上演。起初，美国政府宣布对部分印度进口商品加征关税，市场随即对此保持高度警惕。尽 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil and gas industry is experiencing structural changes, shifting from fuel-based refining to chemical-based refining due to declining demand for traditional fuel products and the push for renewable energy [2] - The government is implementing policies to limit the growth of domestic refining capacity and accelerate the elimination of outdated small refining units, while promoting the replacement of advanced low-emission new capacities [2] - Leading refining companies are expected to enhance their product structure by increasing the yield of chemical raw materials like propylene and ethylene, which will reduce carbon emissions and improve product value [2] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index accounted for 65.78% of the index, with major companies including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC [3] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2][3] - The oil and gas ETF closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, indicating a positive market trend with a recent increase of 0.68% [1]

【冠通研究】 原油：高开下行 制作日期：2025年8月7日 【策略分析】 原油仍处于季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，EIA数据显示原油及汽柴油库存下降，只 是航空煤油及其他油品库存增加较多，整体油品库存有所增加。8月3日，OPEC+自愿减产8国决定9月 增产54.8万桶/日，这样提前一年解除2023年11月实施的220万桶/日自愿减产措施。不过，夏季消费 旺季下，沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油9月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高 出3.20美元，较8月上涨1美元。IEA调高了2025年全球原油过剩量，但也表示近期旺季偏紧。7月29日， 特朗普表示对普京已经失望透顶，将原先设定的50天最后通牒期限大幅缩减到10天，此外，特朗普 称要对采购俄罗斯能源和武器的印度进行罚款，同时美国财政部对伊朗沙姆哈尼控制的国际航运网 络等进行制裁，市场担忧俄罗斯和伊朗原油供给下降。不过，美国7月新增就业远低于预期，6月和5 月新增就业大幅下调，引发市场对于美国经济的担忧，另外，8月3日的OPEC+计划9月增产54.8万桶/ 日，将加剧四季度的原油供给过剩。目前特朗普称中东特使威特科夫与俄罗斯总统普京之间的会谈 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - The crude oil market is expected to experience volatile price movements. The market is influenced by factors such as the seasonal peak travel season, changes in US crude oil inventories, OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the US economy [1]. Group 3: Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is range-bound trading. The seasonal peak travel season has led to low US crude oil inventories. However, the latest EIA report shows a larger-than-expected decline in gasoline inventories and a significant unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, resulting in an overall increase in refined oil inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September, which may impact the supply - demand balance. Concerns about reduced supply from Russia and Iran due to geopolitical factors and worries about the US economy also affect the market [1]. Group 4: Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main futures contract (2509) of crude oil dropped by 1.55% to 508.8 yuan per ton, with a lowest price of 502.2 yuan per ton and a highest price of 513.2 yuan per ton. The open interest increased by 24 to 28,256 lots [2]. Group 5: Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the expected increase in global oil inventories in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA reduced the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil inventories increased by 7.698 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels [3]. Group 6: Supply and Demand - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, while its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 41,000 barrels per day to 13.314 million barrels per day in the week of July 25. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.801 million barrels per day, 2.52% higher than the same period last year. However, the single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 1.76% month - on - month due to a significant decrease in other refined oil products, despite increases in gasoline and diesel demand [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies [4][9][10] - Asphalt: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading [4][60][62] - PVC: Bearish outlook, suggesting selling on rallies or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][112][113] - L&PP: Neutral outlook, recommending range trading or 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [4][154][155] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: The cease - fire between Iran and Israel eased supply concerns. OPEC+ will increase production in August and September. Although in the peak season, demand will weaken over time, causing prices to face pressure in August [9] - Asphalt: Supply is expected to decrease in August, but downstream demand will be affected by funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. The potential increase in Venezuelan diluted asphalt raw materials may lead to a sideways movement [61] - PVC: Upstream calcium carbide prices are weak. Supply is still at a relatively high level, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. It is expected to decline with short - selling opportunities [112] - L&PP: August is the traditional maintenance season, but production remains high due to new capacity. The downstream is in the off - season, but demand is expected to improve. It is expected to move sideways [154] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Prices rose in July, affected by geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production decisions, and Saudi price adjustments [12] - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: WTI non - commercial net long positions declined in July, and Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts decreased [16] - **Production**: OPEC production increased in June, and OPEC+ will raise production in August and September. US production decreased in the week of July 18 [20] - **Drilling Rigs**: US oil drilling rigs decreased in July [24] - **US Imports and Exports**: US crude imports decreased, and exports increased in the week of July 18 [28] - **China's Processing and Imports**: China's crude processing and imports increased in June [32] - **US Economic Data**: US CPI rose in June, and the European Central Bank maintained interest rates [36] - **Crack Spreads**: US and European gasoline and diesel crack spreads increased in July [40] - **US Demand**: US gasoline demand increased, and diesel demand decreased in the latest data [45] - **Inventory**: US crude, gasoline, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories decreased in the week of July 18 [49][53] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Houthi rebels upgraded their maritime blockade, and the Gaza cease - fire negotiation is back on track [55] Asphalt - **Market Review**: The asphalt/ crude ratio decreased in July, and the basis declined [69][73] - **Production and Capacity**: Asphalt production decreased in June, and the expected production in August will decline slightly [61][81] - **Consumption and Shipment**: Apparent consumption increased in May, and the national shipment increased in the week of July 25 [85] - **Profit and开工率**: The开工率 decreased at the end of July, and the spot - end profit loss in Shandong expanded [89] - **Imports and Exports**: No detailed analysis of the trend was provided in the report [93][96] - **Downstream Situation**: Road transport investment increased in the first half of 2025, and the asphalt downstream开工率 increased in the week of July 25 [101][106] PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in the report [114] - **Upstream Situation**: Calcium carbide prices fell in July, with slightly improved profitability, and semi - coke prices and profitability decreased [121] - **Production and开工率**: PVC production decreased slightly in June, and the开工率 decreased in the week of July 25 [125][129] - **Imports and Exports**: Imports increased in June, exports decreased but remained high, and anti - dumping tax delays may stimulate exports [137] - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate is still in adjustment, with continued year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas in the first half of 2025 [141] - **下游开工率**: PVC下游开工率 increased slightly in the week of July 25 but remained at a low level [144] - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory increased in the week of July 24 [148] Polyolefins (L&PP) - **Market Review**: The basis of plastics and PP decreased, falling to a low level [166][170] - **Production and开工率**: PE and PP production were at high levels in June, and the开工率 increased recently [175][182][186] - **Imports and Exports**: PE and PP imports decreased in June, and exports were at high levels. Net imports are expected to decline [192][199] - **下游情况**: Plastic product production increased in the first half of 2025, and exports turned positive in June. The downstream开工率 of PE and PP decreased slightly in the week of July 25 [203][207] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased on July 25 but remained at a relatively high level [211] - **Profit**: Coal - based and oil - based PE profits decreased in July, and coal - based PP remained profitable [216]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise its official crude oil prices for Asian buyers for the second consecutive month, with September prices potentially reaching a five-month high [1] Pricing Expectations - The official price for Saudi Arabia's flagship Arab Light crude oil is projected to increase by 90 cents per barrel compared to August, reaching a range of $3.10 to $3.25 per barrel, marking the highest level since May of this year [1] - Other grades of crude oil, including Arab Extra Light, Medium, and Heavy, are anticipated to see price increases of 80 to 95 cents per barrel in September compared to August [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has alleviated concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, but uncertainties remain in the post - ceasefire situation [1] - The market has factored in OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025, yet the market is tight during the peak season [1] - Considering the peak consumption season and potential threats to Russian oil supply, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Suggest a strategy of buying on dips [1] - The retaliatory action by Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have cooled down geopolitical risks, but issues such as the cease - fire implementation, Iran's nuclear materials, and US sanctions on Iran's oil exports need attention [1] - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak, with US crude oil inventories at a low level, but overall oil product inventories have increased [1] - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, and is discussing a pause in further production increases from October [1] - OPEC has lowered the global oil demand forecast for the next four years, indicating less optimism about future demand [1] - Trump has postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1st, and attention should be paid to US trade negotiations [1] - The US sanctions on Russia pose a threat to Russian oil supply, and combined with the peak season in the downstream, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2508 fell 0.08% to 516.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 509.1 yuan/ton and a high of 520.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2032 to 12,929 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA has lowered the forecast of US crude oil production in 2025 by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the forecast of global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 [3] - IEA has lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - OPEC has maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 and 2026 [3] - US EIA data shows that crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased more than expected in the week ending July 11 [3] Supply - side and Demand - side - OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day, and production in June 2025 increased by 219,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production decreased by 10,000 barrels per day in the week ending July 11 [4] - US crude oil product supply decreased, with gasoline and diesel demand decreasing on a weekly basis [4]

Group 1 - The oil market started the week positively, with prices rising by 2% despite fluctuations due to Trump's new tariff policies and a rebound in the dollar, indicating a favorable market outlook despite OPEC+'s unexpected production increase in August [1] - OPEC+ decided to increase daily supply by 548,000 barrels in August, with expectations for further acceleration in September, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the oil market fundamentals [1] - Saudi Aramco announced a $1 per barrel price increase for its flagship Arab Light crude oil, indicating strong demand in the spot market and that new oil inventories can be absorbed [3] Group 2 - ExxonMobil warned of a $1.5 billion reduction in earnings due to commodity price volatility, with oil and gas prices expected to decline by approximately $1 billion and $500 million respectively compared to the previous quarter [5] - Shell also projected a significant decline in trading profits for the second quarter, influenced by weak performance in its oil and gas trading business, leading to a drop in its stock price [7] - The oil industry outlook appears bleak, with companies struggling to generate sufficient free cash flow for dividends and stock buybacks after record profits in 2022, amid ongoing price volatility and geopolitical tensions [7] Group 3 - There are concerns about a potential oversupply in the second half of the year due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase, which could lead to further downward pressure on oil prices [9] - The traditional summer travel season in the U.S. has not yet shown significant increases in oil demand, raising worries about weakening seasonal demand [9] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their potential impact on economic outlook and oil demand continues to create volatility in oil prices [9]

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, indicating confidence in demand resilience during the summer peak season, leading to a rise in international oil prices [1][2][3] - The OPEC alliance agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, significantly higher than the previous three-month increase of 411,000 barrels, with nearly 80% of the voluntary daily cut of 2.2 million barrels returning to the market [2][3] - The increase in oil prices was also influenced by a decrease in U.S. crude and fuel inventories and a weaker dollar, which shifted market attention to fundamentals and supported summer demand [3] Group 2 - Saudi Arabia's pricing strategy, which includes a combination of production cuts and price increases, aims to balance short-term profits with long-term market share, showcasing its soft power in the global oil market [1][3][4] - The geopolitical and policy risks, particularly related to U.S. tariffs, continue to create uncertainty in the market, affecting demand expectations for the second half of 2025 [2][4] - Saudi Arabia is focusing on long-term strategies, including technological upgrades and gradual reforms, to maintain its resource value while navigating internal and external challenges [4]