近期，受到美国对俄罗斯两大石油生产商制裁影响，伊拉克国家石油营销组织SOMO已取消3批卢克石 油公司原定于11月装船的原油货物。印度两家国企HPCL、MRPL通过招标从美国、中东采购约500万桶 原油，包括阿布扎比Murban原油。近期俄罗斯到印度原油物流出现扰动，初步出口数据显示，10月俄 罗斯原油出口环比下滑5%，但较去年同期仍高约10%。印度信实集团、MRPL、HMEL集团已经停止对 俄罗斯原油采买，目前约80万桶/日俄罗斯原油供应受到威胁。 ■"欧佩克+"确定产量计划 11月2日，"欧佩克+"宣布12月将小幅增产13.7万桶/日，并暂停2026年第一季度进一步增产计划。"欧佩 克+"成员国将于11月30日举行下一次会议，商讨2026年的产量水平。届时该组织将评估暂停增产对市场 实际效果、全球需求情况以及地缘政治局势发展。另一方面，沙特下调12月销往亚洲官方销售价格，其 中阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲售价每桶下调1.2美元，较阿曼/迪拜原油均价升水1美元/桶，此外中质与重质 原油每桶调降1.4美元。 来源：中国能源网 ■美洲产量预期强劲 夏季需求旺季结束，全球原油供需压力加大，水上浮仓飙升。10月，美国制裁俄罗 ...

发布日期：2025年11月18日 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡下行 【行情分析】 11月2日，欧佩克+八国决定12月增产13.7万桶/日，与此前10月、11月增产计划一致，明年第一 季度暂停增产，欧佩克+八国下一次会议将于11月30日举行。这将加剧四季度的原油供应压力，但对 于明年一季度的供应压力意外减轻。沙特阿美全面下调12月销往亚洲的原油官方售价，其中旗舰产 品阿拉伯轻质原油价格被下调每桶1.20美元。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国原油累库幅度超 预期，成品油库存去库幅度不及预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量继续刷新历史最高位。 美国对俄罗斯态度转变，美国财政部制裁俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公 司及其子公司，俄罗斯原油出口预期受限，只是特朗普最新表示，希望继续在布达佩斯与普京会晤。 印度有与美国达成新的关税协议而同意逐步减少对俄罗斯石油进口的可能。乌克兰对俄罗斯炼厂袭 击，欧洲汽柴油持续上涨，关注俄罗斯原油的出口情况。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，福特号打 击群到达加勒比海。利比亚首都的黎波里附近爆发武装冲突。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应 中断担忧。但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [3] - The supply surplus pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, with OPEC adjusting the global oil situation in Q3 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA predicting that oil demand growth will slow down in Q4 while supply will further increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increase will be suspended in Q1 next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. This will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in Q1 next year [3] - Saudi Aramco comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, being cut by $1.20 per barrel [3] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. US crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [3] - The US has changed its attitude towards Russia. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, which is expected to limit Russia's crude oil exports. However, Trump has recently stated that he hopes to continue the meeting with Putin in Budapest. India may reach a new tariff agreement with the US and agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous rise in European gasoline and diesel prices. Attention should be paid to Russia's crude oil export situation [3] - The military stand - off between the US and Venezuela has escalated, with the Ford Strike Group arriving in the Caribbean Sea [3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the month - on - month decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and its continuous contraction for eight months have raised market concerns about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and exports from the Middle East are increasing, so the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus pattern [3] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 2,842,700 barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,846,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [14] - OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [14] - US crude oil production in the week of November 7th increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1,386,200 barrels per day, continuing to reach a new historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels month - on - month to 410.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 16 consecutive weeks [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts - Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts [18] - Milan: The data supports an interest rate cut, and the Fed should be more dovish [18] - Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; concerns about inflation go far beyond the tariff issue [18] - Former Fed Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning [18] Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the same period last year, and the decline compared to the same period last year has narrowed [29] - The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 1.74% to 9.028 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.82 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year [29] - The weekly demand for diesel increased by 8.30% to 4.018 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.789 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel demand drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 2.03% month - on - month [29] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the early morning of November 14th, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 7th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels and 4.01% lower than the five - year average [37] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.888 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.028 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 346,000 barrels [37] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [37] Geopolitical Risks - On the 14th local time, Israeli fighter jets carried out two air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza [43] - After a two - day suspension, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday [43] - Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no ongoing uranium enrichment activities and no undeclared uranium enrichment facilities [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in a supply - surplus situation, with the price expected to experience weak and volatile fluctuations. The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and rising exports from the Middle East all contribute to the supply - surplus situation. The adjustment by OPEC from a shortage to a surplus in Q3 2025 and the IEA's prediction of slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 further solidify this view [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil to Asia in December. The end of the demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a record - high US crude oil production all add to the supply pressure. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies, potential changes in India's oil imports, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela also impact the market. The market is concerned about weakening demand due to factors like the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1]. - The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.66% to 457.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.9 yuan/ton and a high of 462.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 7,385 to 11,067 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC adjusted the Q3 2025 global oil situation from shortage to surplus and the 2026 situation from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. IEA raised the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - As of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. OPEC's September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day, while its October production increased mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production decreased in October compared to September. US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.38%. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand increased, driving a 2.03% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will intensify the Q4 supply pressure but unexpectedly relieve the Q1 2026 supply pressure [1] - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil price cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak demand season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory increased slightly [1][3] - The U.S. production of crude oil continued to reach a new historical high. The U.S. sanctioned two major Russian oil companies, which is expected to limit Russian crude oil exports. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil [1] - The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated, and the Ford Strike Group has reached the Caribbean Sea [1] - The consumption peak season has ended, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October decreased month - on - month and contracted for the eighth consecutive month. The market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and Middle - East exports are rising, resulting in a supply - surplus pattern [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 fell 3.66% to 449.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.9 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 464.1 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4417 to 18,452 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report predicts that the global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - The OPEC monthly report adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day in 2026 to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the global crude oil demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively [3] - The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while it previously expected global oil demand to peak in 2030 [3] - EIA data on November 5th showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory for the week ending October 31st increased by 5.202 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 603,000 barrels and was 5.34% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.14 million barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 64,300 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 196,900 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4] - The U.S. crude oil production in the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day, reaching a new historical high [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The overall single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate in the near term [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 2nd, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be on November 30th. This will increase the supply pressure in Q4 2025 but unexpectedly relieve it in Q1 2026 [1] - Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, cut by $1.20 per barrel [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the gasoline inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, but the U.S. crude oil inventory build - up also exceeded expectations, with the overall refined product inventory slightly increasing [1][3] - The U.S. crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [1][3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in October, and continued contraction for eight months have led to market concerns about crude oil demand [1] - The U.S. has changed its attitude towards Russia, sanctioning two major Russian oil companies and their subsidiaries. However, Trump said he hopes to meet Putin in Budapest. The military confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela has escalated [1] - After the Russian crude oil discount widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil, but there is a possibility that it will gradually reduce imports due to a new tariff agreement with the U.S. Indian oil companies have different attitudes after the sanctions [1] - After the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, European gasoline and diesel prices have continued to rise. Currently, the Russian crude oil export volume remains high [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, rose 1.52% to 466.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.7 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 470.4 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,619 to 22,279 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of U.S. crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of November 5th, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending October 31st, the U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected: 603,000 barrels), 5.34% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory decreased by 4.729 million barrels (expected: 1.14 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 643,000 barrels (expected: 1.969 million barrels). Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 30,000 barrels [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its August 2025 crude oil production was revised down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. U.S. crude oil production for the week ending October 31st increased by 700 barrels per day to 13.651 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Demand Data - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year, changing from being higher to lower than the same period last year [4] - The weekly gasoline demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 8.677 million barrels per day, a 2.08% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The weekly diesel demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day, with the four - week average demand at 3.843 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year [4] - The decline in gasoline demand and larger drops in other refined products led to a 4.35% decrease in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The OPEC+ eight - country decision to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter, but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December. With the end of the peak demand season, the overall oil product inventory has slightly increased. The market is worried about crude oil demand. Although the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela are at play. US - China relations have not fundamentally changed, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate in the near term [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, the OPEC+ eight - country decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. The production increase will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. The end of the crude oil demand peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the acceleration of OPEC+ production increase have all contributed to the supply - surplus situation. The US has sanctioned Russian oil companies, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has escalated. There is a possibility that India will gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. The meeting between the leaders of China and the US is in line with market expectations, and it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.30% to 458.8 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 457.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 462.1 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,784 to 23,898 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA expects the global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It has also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. As of the week ending October 31st, US crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.729 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 643,000 barrels. OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day, while its September production increased by 524,000 barrels per day. US crude oil production reached a new high of 13.651 million barrels per day in the week ending October 31st [3] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.344 million barrels per day, a 2.20% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 0.56% to 8.874 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.63% to 3.71 million barrels per day. The single - week supply of US crude oil products decreased by 4.35% month - on - month [4]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 关注资本市场的估值切换行情 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.82%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 0.48%；焦煤期货 本周下跌 1.31%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 3.95%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 1BP 至 1.01%；十年国债 收益率上行 2BP 至 1.81%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.17%。 资产配置建议 本期观点（2025.11.9） | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一个月内 | = | 关注国内稳增长政策的落地情况 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注中美经贸磋商进展及其释放的重要信息 | 不变 | | 一年内 | = | 地缘关系仍有较大不确定性 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 关注"增量"政策落实情况 | 超配 | | 债券 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overnight crude oil failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined, ending the session slightly lower. Saudi Aramco's reduction of the official selling price to Asia dampened some of the market's optimistic sentiment. The impact of sanctions on Russia has begun to show, but it is weak and its sustainability remains to be seen. It is estimated that Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November will slightly decline, but still remain close to recent historical highs. In the short term, there is not enough support for a significant increase in oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: After the US imposed a new round of sanctions on major Russian oil producers, major refineries in India and China reduced their purchases, causing the trading price of Russian oil in Asia to show the largest discount to Brent crude in a year. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. The overall assessment is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.95 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.51 per barrel. The basis was 30.99 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 31, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.521 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 30 barrels. As of November 6, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.47 million barrels, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of the WTI crude oil main contract increased, and as of October 28, the long positions of the Brent crude oil main contract also increased, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the SC2512 contract trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Saudi Arabia's Pricing Adjustment**: Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. It also cut the prices of medium and heavy crude oils by $1.40 per barrel and the prices of ultra - light and extra - light crude oils by $1.20 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and some major OPEC+ members announced that they would suspend production increases in the first quarter to balance market share competition and potential supply gluts. London market crude oil has fallen nearly 15% this year and is currently trading below $65 [5] - **US Employment Situation**: Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors. The number of announced layoffs soared by 37% to 43,600 in October, and the planned layoff number in October soared by 183% to 153,074, the highest in the same period in 22 years [5] - **Fed's Stance**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further interest rate cuts, and she is worried that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with current inflation [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals in Sino - US trade negotiations, the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified in the short term, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.29%, - 0.35%, and - 1.43% respectively [7] - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.96%, - 0.29%, - 1.65%, - 0.67%, and - 1.37% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending October 31. API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels [3][10][12] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249 [16] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 119,046 [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial market, including stock markets, commodity markets, bond markets, and foreign exchange markets, as well as important macro - economic and industry - related news. It reflects the current market trends, such as the decline in major global stock indices, fluctuations in commodity prices, and changes in bond yields. Additionally, it covers significant events like corporate mergers, policy announcements, and international cooperation initiatives. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - US major stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.84% at 46912.3 points, the S&P 500 down 1.12% at 6720.32 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.9% at 23053.99 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed lower, with the German DAX down 1.29% at 23740.38 points, the French CAC40 down 1.36% at 7964.77 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.42% at 9735.78 points [6] - US Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2 - year yield down 7.20 basis points to 3.553%, and others also showing declines [6] - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold down 0.20% at $3984.80 per ounce and COMEX silver down 0.37% at $47.85 per ounce [7] - US oil and Brent crude futures declined slightly, with US oil down 0.12% at $59.53 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.08% at $63.47 per barrel [9] - Most London base metals rose, with LME copper down 0.1% at $10687 per ton, and others showing various changes [9] Important News Macro - economic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the strategic goal of building the Hainan Free Trade Port to be an important gateway for China's opening - up in the new era [11] - The Ministry of Commerce reported on the results of China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, including issues such as fentanyl, tariffs, and agricultural trade [11] - China is actively promoting its accession to the CPTPP [11] - As of November 5, 2025, the annual customs clearance volume of the Ceke Port exceeded 26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%, and it is expected to exceed 30 million tons in 2025 [12] Industry News - For the soda ash industry, this week's shipments, production, and overall inventory in China showed certain changes [14] - In Japan, commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, while kerosene inventory decreased, and the refinery's average operating rate rose slightly [14] - In Singapore, fuel oil and light distillate inventories decreased, while middle distillate inventories increased [15] - In the US, the natural gas inventory increased by 33 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 31, 2025 [15] Metal Futures - A polysilicon restructuring "consortium" platform is being planned, with a proposed fund size of about $70 billion [17] - As of this Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's total production capacity and operating rate showed some changes [19] - Global gold ETFs had five consecutive months of capital inflows, with significant growth in asset management scale and trading volume in October [19] - The mining rights transfer income assessment report of a mine in Jiangxi is being publicly announced [19] Black - series Futures - For rebar, production, apparent demand decreased, and factory and social inventories continued to decline for four weeks [21] - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, and there were changes in coal production and inventory [21] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants showed different levels in different regions [21] Agricultural Futures - In southern Mato Grosso, Brazil, the soybean and corn yields increased significantly, and the second - season corn output is expected to rise substantially [24] - As of November 5, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in China's main producing areas decreased year - on - year [25] - In Malaysia, palm oil production increased in the first five days of November [25] - Brazil's November exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn are expected to be higher than last year [25] - India may double its sugar export quota in the new year [26] Financial Market Financial - A - shares rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 4000 points, and some sectors and concepts showed different trends [28] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices rose, and there were new stock listings and performance [29] - MSCI announced the November index adjustment results [29] - The China Securities Index Company will launch new indices [30] - The Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange accepted the IPO application of Core Medical [30] - Hong Kong is promoting dual - currency trading of some local stocks and related measures [30] - The second - batch of long - term investment pilot insurance funds has made progress [30] - Guizhou Moutai held a performance briefing [31] - DeepWay submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [32] Industry - The polysilicon industry may undergo major integration [33] - The financial regulatory authority is formulating guidelines for the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [33] - China will promote international cooperation in the new - energy storage field [33] - The construction machinery industry's October operating rate showed certain changes [33] - Chongqing issued policies to support the high - quality development of innovative drugs [34] Overseas - US President Trump reached an agreement on GLP - 1 weight - loss drugs, and there are investment and factory - building plans [35] - The US employment situation is severe, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [35] - The US government shutdown affects official inflation data and policy - making [35] - Some Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [36] - The US government shutdown affects the aviation industry, with flight capacity cuts [36] - The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4%, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut increased [36] - Japan plans to allocate about $6.5 billion annually to support the local chip and AI industries [38] - Japan's nominal wages increased in September, which may affect the central bank's policy [38] - Germany's industrial output showed a certain recovery in September [39] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed lower, with some individual stocks performing poorly, and there were concerns about Trump's tariff policies [40] - European major stock indices closed lower, affected by multiple factors [40] - Multiple valuation indicators of the US stock market are at high levels [41] - Nissan had a net loss in the first half of fiscal year 2025 and plans to sell its headquarters building [42] - Airbnb's third - quarter performance was good, and its after - hours trading price rose [42] Commodities - International precious metal futures declined [43] - Oil prices fell due to concerns about supply and demand [43] - Most London base metals rose [43] - Indonesia stopped approving applications for some nickel ore processing plants [43] - Saudi Aramco lowered the December crude oil price for Asia [45] - The US included copper in the 2025 key minerals list [45] Bonds - The Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, with high subscription rates [46] - The strength of A - shares put pressure on the bond market, and there were changes in bond yields and prices [46] - The real estate industry's bond financing in October increased year - on - year [46] - US Treasury yields fell [47] - Berkshire Hathaway may issue yen bonds [48] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the RMB was added as a settlement currency by the IATA [50] - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies showed different trends [50]