意大利时间上午10:30左右，布伦特原油期货上涨80美分，涨幅1.2%，报每桶65.33美元；美国西德克萨 斯中质油（WTI）上涨76美分，涨幅约1.3%。 因持续担忧供应过剩问题，OPEC+昨日宣布自11月起日产量增加137,000桶，维持与10月相同的增产水 平。会议前有消息称，尽管俄罗斯支持137,000桶的增产以避免价格压力，沙特阿拉伯仍倾向于增产幅 度为两倍、三倍甚至四倍，以快速夺回市场份额。与此同时，沙特对亚洲市场的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售 价保持不变。 尽管路透社采访的消息人士预计会有小幅增产，但上周中东原油供应增加的担忧导致该地区溢价降至22 个月低点，市场预期随之下降。短期内，一些分析师预计即将在中东开始的炼油厂检修季将有助于抑制 油价。第四季度需求基本面疲软的预期也是限制市场上涨潜力的另一因素。 10月6日，据路透社报道，由于OPEC+（石油输出国组织及其盟友）宣布11月增产幅度低于预期，原油 价格上涨逾1%，缓解了市场对供应过剩的部分担忧，但需求前景不佳可能在短期内限制价格上涨空 间。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend shorting on rallies [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand balance of crude oil has weakened, with supply increasing and demand facing uncertainties, so it is advisable to short on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Factors - Iraq's Oil Ministry will restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdish region on Tuesday, which is expected to increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, and plans to continue to lift the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day after lifting the first - layer additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Kpler expects OPEC+ maritime exports to increase by more than 1.1 million barrels per day in September [2] - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day from October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - The United States' crude oil production is basically stable, and new production capacities in countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway have been put into operation, leading to a continuous increase in crude oil supply [2] Demand - side Factors - The peak season for crude oil travel is basically over. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.285 million barrels unexpectedly, but refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. The U.S. refinery's operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [3] - The weak U.S. non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about crude oil demand [4] Other Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September meeting, but Powell is still cautious about further rate cuts, and the macro - situation is temporarily stable [4] - The EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting a crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and Russia's crude oil export situation [4] - Chinese independent refineries have reduced ESPO purchases due to uncertain quotas [4]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Wang Jing (F0235424/Z0000771), Su Miaoda (F03104403/Z0018167) [1] Market Summary Futures Market Performance - As of September 23 closing, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Beans No. 2, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, and caustic soda dropped over 3%; palm oil, polysilicon, and soda ash fell over 2.5%. Shanghai gold and silver rose over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.25%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.26%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) dropped 0.78%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.16%. 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.05%, 5-year (TF) fell 0.13%, 10-year (T) fell 0.21%, and 30-year (TL) fell 0.67% [6] Capital Flow - As of 15:15 on September 23, in terms of capital inflow to domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 5.797 billion, Shanghai Gold 2512 had 3.357 billion, and CSI 300 2512 had 3.343 billion. In terms of outflow, Rapeseed Oil 2601 had an outflow of 789 million, Soybean Oil 2601 had 489 million, and Palm Oil 2601 had 429 million [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, oscillating weakly. Supply of copper ore and refined copper is tight. As of September 19, China's spot TC was -40.64 dollars/dry ton, RC was -4.05 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. Many smelters had maintenance in September, with small and medium - sized ones under profit pressure. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, a 0.24% MoM decrease but a 15.59% YoY increase. Affected by policies, scrap copper supply will decline significantly in September, and electrolytic copper output is expected to drop sharply. In August, imported copper quantity decreased to 307,200 tons, a MoM decrease of 27,300 tons. Demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, reducing SHFE inventory. Fundamentals are tight, demand is resilient, but overseas macro factors still impact Shanghai copper, leading to narrow price fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil has ended. EIA data shows a significant unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories, but a larger - than - expected build in refined oil inventories, increasing overall oil product inventories and reducing US refinery operating rates by 1.6 percentage points. Starting from October 2025, OPEC+ will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, increasing pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arabian Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by 1 dollar/barrel. With geopolitical risks not escalating further, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase, it is recommended to short on rallies [11][12] Asphalt - Last week, asphalt operating rate dropped 0.5 percentage points to 34.4%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In September, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.686 million tons, a MoM increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a YoY increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). Downstream operating rates rose, but road asphalt operating rate is still at the lowest level in recent years due to funds and weather. National shipments increased 31.10% MoM to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level. Refinery inventory decreased but is still at a low level in recent years. With new production and weather and fund constraints, supply surplus is intensifying, and with the recent decline in crude oil futures prices, asphalt cost support is weakening, and its futures price is expected to decline [13] PP - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.59 percentage points to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. On September 23, new maintenance devices increased, and PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 80%, at a neutral - low level. The proportion of standard - grade拉丝 production remained around 24.5%. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, increased US distillate inventories, and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices fell. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have increased recently. Although downstream is entering the peak season, current peak - season demand is lower than expected, and there is no large - scale centralized procurement. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] Plastic - On September 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained around 85%, at a neutral level. PE downstream operating rate rose 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, with increasing orders and raw material inventories but at a slower pace. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. With the Fed's rate cut and expected increased Iraqi crude oil exports, crude oil prices declined. New capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has decreased. Although the agricultural film peak season is coming, the peak - season effect is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [16] PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region is stable. PVC operating rate decreased 2.98 percentage points to 76.96%, at a neutral - high level in recent years. In the peak season, PVC downstream operating rate continued to increase, exceeding last year's level but still low compared to other years. India postponed the BIS policy for six months to December 24, 2025. Chinese PVC exports are expected to weaken in Q4, but export orders have increased recently. Social inventory continued to rise and is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment. New capacity has been put into operation. With cost support strengthening and pre - holiday downstream stocking, but new production resuming and a low basis, PVC is expected to face downward pressure [18] Urea - Urea opened low and moved high, closing flat. The spot market remains weak, with limited improvement in sales after price cuts. Urea daily output has returned to over 190,000 tons. Before the holidays, downstream buyers stock up at low prices, and industrial demand is mainly for rigid needs. The compound fertilizer factory operating rate increased but at a slower pace, with high finished - product inventory. Urea factory inventory is increasing and is much higher than in previous years. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and it is necessary to monitor the progress and intensity of pre - holiday stocking [19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]

原油：原油震荡上行 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025年9月16日 【策略分析】 观望 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季，目前EIA数据显示美国原油、汽油超预期累库，精炼油累库幅度 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加，不过，美国炼厂开工率小幅回升0.6个百分点，仍然较高。9月7日， OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的原油库存水平上）， 八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整，该调整 将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢复，且将以循序渐进 方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原油压力，IEA最新月报 再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元 /桶。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度和美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续 俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情况。后续消费旺季即将结束，美国非农就业 数据疲软令市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+加速增产。原油供需将转弱，建议中长期逢高做空为主。短期 ...

路透社9月9日报道，石油输出国组织（OPEC+）同意增产的第二天，世界最大石油出口国沙特阿 拉伯下调了向亚洲销售的阿拉伯轻质原油的官方售价。据该社看到的文件显示，沙特将 10 月份的原油 价格定为每桶比阿曼/迪拜平均价格高出 2.20 美元，比 9 月份价格低 1 美元，降幅超过市场预期。（驻 伊朗使馆经商处） （原标题：路透社编译版：沙特阿拉伯下调10月份对亚洲的石油售价） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although they were initially driven up by geopolitical factors, they dropped significantly after the release of US inflation data. Currently, the supply side in the commodity attribute remains loose due to OPEC+ production increases, and the consumption side has poor expectations due to weak US economic data. This combination makes it difficult to boost oil prices. Financially, the expected 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut this week may not significantly lift commodity prices. Politically, geopolitical conflicts centered around Israel are intense, which may further amplify short - term oil price fluctuations. Overall, oil prices may remain high in the short term with some upward potential, but will face pressure in the long term [70]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices first rose due to geopolitical factors, then回调 on Thursday due to US inflation data, and recovered over the weekend. This week, oil prices are expected to be more volatile under the influence of major economies' interest rate decisions and geopolitical factors, with some upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of 460 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - term investors can take a cautiously bullish approach, while a bearish view is advisable for the long term [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices rose in the first half due to Middle East geopolitical tensions. On Thursday, they dropped sharply due to the impact of higher - than - expected US CPI data and market pessimism about future consumption. Over the weekend, they rebounded due to geopolitical factors and news of Western sanctions on Russia [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Factors - **Fed Rate Cut**: The market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this Thursday, with a 7% chance of a 50 - basis - point cut. There is a higher probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year. However, institutions are pessimistic about the Fed's rate - cut motives and the post - cut economic situation, so the rate cut may have limited impact on commodity prices [25]. - **Super Central Bank Week**: This week is a super central bank week. The Bank of England is expected to keep the interest rate at 4.0%, with the focus on signals about future rate cuts. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday due to a weak job market, concerns about US trade tariffs, and controllable inflation. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain the previous rate decision [28]. - **Geopolitical Fluctuations**: Last week, Israel's attacks on multiple countries in the Middle East and NATO's actions in Poland, along with Ukraine's call for new sanctions on Russia, have increased market concerns about geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and affected confidence in Russian oil exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ increased production in August. OPEC's production rose from 27.47 million barrels in July to 27.948 million barrels in August, an increase of 478,000 barrels. The total OPEC+ production increased by 509,000 barrels from 41.891 million barrels to 42.4 million barrels [36]. - **Saudi Price Cut**: Saudi Arabia cut the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian markets by $1/barrel in October, which is seen as an attempt to grab market share and may lead to more determined OPEC+ production increases [38]. - **Continuous Production Increase by Saudi and Russia**: Saudi Arabia and Russia have been increasing production, which contributes to the supply - side expansion [41]. - **Iraq's Production Recovery**: Iraq's oil production has been recovering [44]. - **Stable US Production Recovery**: US oil production has been steadily recovering [47]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Slight Improvement in Consumption Expectations**: OPEC maintains its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 105.14 million barrels per day. The IEA raises its 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and the demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. However, the market still faces a high supply - surplus situation [50]. - **Weak Manufacturing in China and the US**: The manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have not shown significant improvement, which may limit oil demand [53]. - **Shift to Diesel Production**: The market is shifting towards diesel production, with gasoline consumption declining and diesel consumption expected to increase [58]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Continuous Crude Oil Inventory Build - up**: US API and EIA crude oil inventories increased in the week ending September 5, exceeding market expectations of inventory reduction. This is due to higher - than - expected US production and lower - than - expected exports, and the situation may not improve with OPEC+ production increases and Saudi price cuts [60]. - **Weak Gasoline Production**: US gasoline inventory increased in the week ending September 5, while refined oil inventory also rose. The market is in a seasonal phase of reducing gasoline production and increasing diesel production, which may support fuel oil prices [64]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - Short - term oil prices may remain high with some upward potential, but long - term prices are under pressure due to supply - side expansion, weak consumption expectations, limited impact of the Fed rate cut, and intense geopolitical conflicts [70].

【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡下行 制作日期：2025年9月12日 【策略分析】 空单暂时逐步止盈离场 原油逐步退出季节性出行旺季，目前EIA数据显示美国原油、汽油超预期累库，精炼油累库幅度 超预期，整体油品库存继续增加，不过，美国炼厂开工率小幅回升0.6个百分点，仍然较高。9月7日， OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的原油库存水平上）， 八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶的产量调整，该调整 将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢复，且将以循序渐进 方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原油压力，IEA最新月报 再度提高原油过剩幅度。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元 /桶。美国对印度商品额外征收25%的关税，印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油，将导致全球原油贸易流变 动，造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度和 美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's sanctions against Nayara Energy have led to a halt in crude oil supplies from Saudi Aramco and Iraq's SOMO, resulting in Nayara relying solely on Russian oil imports [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Chain Impact - Following the EU sanctions in July, Nayara Energy's crude oil imports in August were entirely dependent on Russia, with no shipments received from Iraq or Saudi Arabia [1]. - Typically, Nayara would receive approximately 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude and 1 million barrels of Saudi crude monthly, but it received none in August [1]. - The last shipment of Basra crude from SOMO was delivered on July 29, and the last shipment of Saudi crude was on July 18, totaling 1 million barrels of Arab Light crude [2]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Due to sanctions, Nayara is facing payment difficulties when procuring oil from SOMO, impacting its operations [1]. - Nayara's refinery, located in Vadinar, has a processing capacity of 400,000 barrels per day but is currently operating at only 70%-80% capacity due to challenges in selling refined products [2]. - Nayara's refining capacity accounts for approximately 8% of India's total refining capacity, which averages 5.2 million barrels per day [2]. Group 3: Management Changes - Nayara Energy's CEO resigned in July, and the company has appointed a new CEO from Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR [3].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant shift in the global energy landscape due to U.S. sanctions, particularly affecting India's oil imports from Russia and leading to a drastic reduction in supply [1][4] - India's four major state-owned refineries have halted purchases of Urals crude oil from Russia, switching to Saudi oil instead, resulting in a loss of $800,000 daily savings previously enjoyed from discounted Russian oil [1][4] - In contrast, China has capitalized on the situation, increasing its imports of Urals crude oil significantly, with daily shipments surpassing 75,000 barrels, and securing long-term contracts at lower prices [3][7] Group 2 - The article highlights the financial implications of the energy trade, noting that China has established a "petro-yuan" settlement network, which has led to a 42% increase in crude futures holdings on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange [3][6] - The geopolitical dynamics are shifting, with China being recognized as a key energy partner by Russia, binding 62% of Russian crude production to the Chinese market [7] - India's reliance on U.S. strategy has resulted in increased costs for alternative oil sources, with Saudi Arabia charging a $6 per barrel risk premium, illustrating the high price of dependency on U.S. policies [4][6]