1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC industry faces a complex situation. The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased, while the downstream start - up rate increased slightly. Social inventory continued to grow with high pressure. The cost of the calcium carbide method increased, and both the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes are in a state of continuous loss. In the short - term, there are no planned new maintenance devices, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week. In the long - term, new production capacity will increase supply pressure. PVC demand is expected to weaken marginally, and the terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Social inventory pressure is high and difficult to reduce. Calcium carbide prices are expected to remain stable, and the cost of the ethylene method is expected to change little. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4830 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC decreased by 47 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 848,608 hands, an increase of 23,698 hands. The open interest decreased by 2,075 hands. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,124,135 hands, an increase of 1,045 hands; the short position decreased by 950 hands; the net long position was 947,399 hands, a decrease of 102,368 hands [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China remained unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 700 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Northwest Europe remained unchanged. The basis of PVC was 710 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central region increased by 50 yuan/ton, in the northern region was 2,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 41.67 yuan/ton, and in the northwestern region increased by 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 2,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 509 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 37 US dollars/ton. The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price remained unchanged, and the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 189 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The start - up rate of the calcium carbide method was 76.96%, a decrease of 2.5%, and the start - up rate of the ethylene method decreased by 4.19%. The total social inventory of PVC was 771,200 tons, an increase of 0.3%. The total social inventory in the East China region was 3,800 tons, and in the South China region was 482,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index decreased by 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 93.05 million square meters, an increase of 4.595 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 43.7794 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 643.10894 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC remained unchanged, and the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.81%, a decrease of 0.08%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options of PVC both decreased by 0.1% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%. The PVC downstream start - up rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%, among which the pipe start - up rate increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the profile start - up rate increased by 0.21% to 39.43%. As of September 18th, PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a 2.03% increase from the previous week. From September 13th to 19th, the weekly average cost of the calcium carbide method increased to 5,230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5,631 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of the calcium carbide method decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the US, the soybean situation is complex with increased inventory but lower - than - expected planting area. Domestically, the supply of rapeseed meal is affected by the increase in imported soybeans and the rise in oil - mill operating rates, while the demand is boosted by the aquaculture season but weakened by the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the international market is influenced by factors such as the MPOB report, international biodiesel policies, and international oil prices. Domestically, it is in the off - season for consumption, with a loose supply and high inventory pressure. However, the decrease in oil - mill operating rates and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may have an impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9548 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2579 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 719.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5058 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 56 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 264 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19088 lots, down 5701 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 12451 lots, down 7960 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 15218, down 1014 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9750 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9782.5 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5148.66 yuan/ton, down 9.02 yuan [2]. - Price differences and ratios: The oil - meal ratio is 3.77, down 0.04. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 143 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 79 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rates: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 11.15 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.1 million tons, up 0.09 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 61.59 million tons, down 1.46 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.9 million tons, up 0.07 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.1 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3 million tons, up 0.19 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 3.48 million tons, up 0.61 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production and consumption: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail sales of catering revenue is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied and historical volatilities: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.94%, down 1.59%; that of put options is 16.93%, down 1.6%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 14.43%, up 0.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 19.26%, down 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil is 12.77%, up 0.52%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.1%, up 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 13.89%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Canadian rapeseed futures: On Friday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) traded in a narrow range, with closing prices mixed. The 11 - month contract rose 0.2 Canadian dollars to 719.70 Canadian dollars/ton; the 1 - month contract was flat at 727.40 Canadian dollars/ton; the 3 - month contract fell 0.5 Canadian dollars to 732.90 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - US soybean situation: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, a 4% increase from the same period last year, higher than the analyst's expectation of 980 million bushels. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.38 million acres, lower than the March forecast of 83.5 million acres and the analyst's estimate of 93.655 million acres, a 4.2% decrease from the same period last year [2].