请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给压力逐渐上升，油价承压偏弱。从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开 | | 原油 | 偏弱 | 始正式增产，计划增产量要显著高于需求增量，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上 | | | | 升，油价下行压力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。 | | | | 策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【500-520】 | | | | 成本回落，供给充足，液化气走势偏弱。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承 | | LPG | 偏弱 | 压，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；下游燃烧需求处于淡季，化工需 | | | | 求有所下降，PDH 开工率连降两周。策略：走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。 | | | | PG【4120-4220】 | | | | 供需双弱，现货跟随盘面涨价，华北基差为-129（环比-21）。近期装置检 修力度加强，新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解，本周产量小幅下滑， | | L | 空头反弹 | 预计后市仍存下跌预期。关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/11 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/07/0 4 | 801 | 2455 | 2465 | 2495 | 2550 | 2445 | 2610 | 277 | 340 | 58 | 35 | -1219 | | 2025/07/0 7 | 801 | 2437 | 2448 | 2485 | 2550 | 2445 | 2585 | 277 | 340 | 36 | 25 | -1219 | | 2025/07/0 8 | 801 | 2402 | 2428 | 2475 | 2540 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 增产压力逐渐上升 VS 短期旺季存支撑。7 月 6 日，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉 克等 8 个 OPEC+国家计划于 8 月份增产 54.8 万桶/日；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压 力较大，重点关注供给端 OPEC 实际增产量与美国产量。策略：轻仓试空 并购买看涨期权保护。SC【510-530】 LPG 空头盘整 跟随成本端油价盘整。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承压，沙特下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利 好，厂内和港口库存均下降。策略：走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。PG 【4150-4250】 L 空头反弹 成本支撑好转，供需双弱，下游淡季成交偏弱，华北基差为-98（环比-53）。 近期装置检修力度加强，新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解，预计本周 产量降至 60.5 万吨。需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力 度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：短线反弹，卖保择机介入。L【7250-7400 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5100 on the daily K - line of V2509 [3]. - In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Although some plants are planned to be put into production, the exit of backward production capacity driven by policies is expected to relieve supply pressure [3]. - It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July [3]. - The impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production. The lifting of the export restriction on ethane to China by the US may drive down the cost of the ethylene - based method in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 77 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1242330 lots, an increase of 267395 lots, and the open interest is 932779 lots, a decrease of 34594 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 23605 lots, an increase of 6984 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4822.31 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4860 yuan/ton, up 18.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67 yuan/ton; in the Northwest, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Southeast Asia is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 37.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons. The inventory in East China is 33.03 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons, and the inventory in South China is 4.28 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 14.54%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.28%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.11%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.1%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 10, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in East China increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4830 to 4920 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 28 to July 4, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the previous period [3]. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% month - on - month to 59.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4963 | 69 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 974935 | 240750 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 967373 | 32878 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 752850 | 31297 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 736229 | -11537 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 16621 | 42834 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4970 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4792.31 | -0.77 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4945 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 48 ...

H > 卡玛利拉 斐波纳契 经典 平行通道 楔形 谐波形态 行情异动复盘 期货盯盘神器早盘分享：铁矿石尾盘出现主买资金炸弹，关注行情延续性；焦煤出现新的多头堆积带，一图了解苹果、纯碱、 PVC、液化石油气（LPG）等热门品种出现的关键市场信号。 铁矿石主力合约在9:55、9:57引爆资金炸弹，主买 成交占比分别为69.88%、56.13%，成交额超11亿 元;此外,在11:29引爆一个主买资金占比高达 84.75%的资金炸弹,关注午盘行情延续性。 日 日 日 == E E E 3 G 。 年 百日见 第四 E R B R B S E N B B B . 第 第 第 第 日 8 第 日 0 - 最新发展出血 日 第二日 第 E 8 - 8 器 装 品 品 品 。 。 出 中 品 品 年 员 K 第 B 등 5 展出品展出品 聚氯乙烯（PVC）主力合约在10:03、10:05、10:07 引爆多个资金炸弹,主卖资金占比均超50%，并推 动行情快速下挫。 圆 订单流 ▼ 577 高:7672 低:7652 开:7664 收:7652 苹果主力合约在10:56、10:58、11:00、11:02、 11:04引爆多个 ...

2025年07月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：PTA新装置投产在即，PX供需仍偏紧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA止盈，月差反套 | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市，月差逢低正套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：震荡上行，估值下修 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏弱震荡 | 11 | | PP：现货下跌，成交平淡 | 13 | | 烧碱：液氯降价，成本抬升 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 18 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 19 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 21 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 23 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 26 | | PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 29 | | 燃料油：夜盘跟随原油价格上涨，短期波动或再次放大 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：强势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差高位震荡 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 32 | ...

添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.04」 聚氯乙烯市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员：徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 价格：本周PVC期货主力价格在4807-4956区间震荡。截至2025年7月4日收盘，V2509合约报收于4906元/ 吨，较上周收盘下跌0.26%。 基本面：供应端，本周受宁夏英力特、内蒙三联等装置停车检修影响，PVC产能利用率环比-0.65%至 77.44%。需求端，本周PVC下游开工率环比+0.1%至42.88%，其中管材开工率环比+0.94%至39.5%，型 材开工率环比-0.25%至34.75%。库存方面，本周PP商业库存环比-0.09%至78.51万吨，处于近三年同期中 性水平。成本方面，本周电石法全国平均成本窄幅上升至5109元/吨，乙烯法全国平均成本上升至5647元/ 吨。本周电石法、乙烯法工艺亏损出现不同程度加深。 展望：7月国内PVC装置 ...

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边震荡市 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货震荡，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：窄幅震荡 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 28 | | 燃料油：短期弱势调整为主，盘面波动低位 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：08震荡整理；10空单轻仓持有 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片：短期 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4821 | -68 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 977340 | 184615 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 982274 | 56201 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 748348 | 31094 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 780566 | 44342 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -32218 | -13248 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4965 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4817.31 | 0 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4965 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4889.69 | -4.06 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价(日, ...