Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the bearish domestic supply - demand situation and the weakening marginal benefits of exports [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the trading volume decreased by 197,035 hands; the open interest decreased by 40,159 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 25,362 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,262.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 221.85 yuan; the price of ethylene - based PVC in South China was 5,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China decreased by 148.75 yuan; the CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia was 1,060 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of PVC was - 2 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in North China was unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased by 49.5 yuan; the mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was unchanged; the CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 999 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of VCM increased by 30 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 85.24%, an increase of 0.8%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.53%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC increased by 1.46%; the total social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.03 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in East China decreased by 0.69 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in South China decreased by 0.34 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.45; the cumulative value of new housing construction area decreased by 53,686.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 535,372.16 - 124,518.13 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 2,871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.49%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC decreased by 6.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC decreased by 6.9% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.92%, an increase of 0.80% compared with the previous period; from March 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 4.3% to 45.96%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 3.04% to 37.39%; as of March 26th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.374 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 70.63%; from March 20th to March 26th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 2.62% to 5,533 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 7.84% to 7,867 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 228 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 322 yuan/ton to - 778 yuan/ton [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent surge in crude oil prices, driven by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, is expected to positively impact coal prices. The demand from domestic power plants and chemical industries remains strong, with expectations for coal prices to rise [6][29] - The coal sector has shown resilience, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with a slight decline of 1.25% compared to a 1.41% drop in the index [2] - Key coal production and sales data indicate a steady increase in average daily coal sales and production, with significant year-on-year growth [2][27] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of March 27, 2026, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises reached 7.72 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.4% and a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The average daily production was 7.77 million tons, up 4.1% week-on-week and 8.4% year-on-year [2] - The total coal inventory stood at 24.88 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 29.9% [2][27] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim reached 688 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The import price index for thermal coal was 969 RMB/ton, up 4.76% week-on-week [3] - Coking coal prices also saw increases, with main coking coal prices at 1,720 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 7.5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies, coal chemical companies, and flexible coking coal companies. Notable companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining [6][29] - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise due to strong downstream demand and the need for inventory replenishment in the coking and thermal coal sectors [6][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downstream industry's resistance to high prices, PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. As of March 27, 2026, V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua restarted and some device loads were adjusted upwards. The PVC production capacity utilization rate increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 80.92%. The calcium carbide process start - up rate increased by 0.52% week - on - week to 85.24%, and the ethylene process start - up rate increased by 1.46% week - on - week to 70.70% [8]. - On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 4.3% week - on - week to 45.96%, and the pipe start - up rate increased by 2% week - on - week to 41.2% [8]. - In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 1.374 million tons, and the inventory level remained high [8]. - In terms of cost, the calcium carbide price increased this week. The average national cost of the calcium carbide process increased by 2.62% week - on - week to 5,533 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as ethylene and VCM increased, driving the cost of the ethylene process to increase by 7.84% week - on - week to 7,867 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process decreased by 228 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene process decreased by 322 yuan/ton week - on - week to - 778 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the ethylene process plants in China continue to reduce their loads due to raw material supply. Calcium carbide process enterprises may postpone their maintenance plans to seize the profit window. PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly. The downstream start - up rate continues to increase seasonally, but the lack of orders from product enterprises and the resistance to high prices suppress the overall demand for PVC. Overseas ethylene process plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of the export side may depend on the duration of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, the price support of domestic supply and demand for PVC has weakened. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 5,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: PVC futures fluctuated widely and declined week - on - week. V2605 closed at 5,615 yuan/ton, down 4.43% from the previous week [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization increased, demand - side start - up rate increased, inventory increased slightly, cost increased, and profit decreased [8]. - Outlook: PVC supply is not expected to decline significantly, demand is suppressed, and the export improvement depends on geopolitical factors. Short - term V2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: V2605 declined week - on - week [9]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week - on - week [9]. - Position: The position of the 05 contract decreased week - on - week [13]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread decreased week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Spot Market - Import and export prices: CFR China and Southeast Asia quotes increased by 10 US dollars to 1,060 US dollars/ton, and the Indian quote remained unchanged at 1,050 US dollars/ton [19][23]. - Domestic prices: The spot price of calcium carbide process in East China decreased, while the spot price of ethylene process increased significantly [26]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated widely, and the spot was slightly at a discount [31]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide: The prices of lanthanum charcoal and calcium carbide increased week - on - week. The start - up rate of lanthanum charcoal was 55.44%, and the start - up rate of calcium carbide was 68.46% [35][40]. - EDC and VCM: The CIF intermediate price of VCM was 920 US dollars/ton, and the international price of EDC was 351 US dollars/ton [44]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - Supply: In 2026, only 300,000 tons of PVC plants were put into production. The output in February was 1.9851 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week [48][52]. - Demand: The pipe start - up rate was 39.2%, the profile start - up rate was 34.35%. The export volume of PVC floor products was 393,200 tons in January and 322,300 tons in March [55][59]. - Import and export: The import volume was 14,000 tons in January and 8,500 tons in February. The export volume was 285,500 tons in January and 312,100 tons in February [62]. - Inventory: The PVC social inventory increased week - on - week, and the inventory level was high [67]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased week - on - week [71]. - Profit: The profit of the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process decreased week - on - week [79]. 3.6 Options Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 52.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 47.39% [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested [3]. - The start - up rate of the downstream is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year as it gradually enters the traditional peak season [3]. - Overseas ethylene - based plants have shut down due to raw material shortages, and the improvement of domestic exports depends on the duration of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of Middle East geopolitical news [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5703 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the trading volume is 1,758,230 lots, down 219,507 lots; the open interest is 716,758 lots, down 36,471 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,019,635 lots, down 18,245 lots; the short position is 1,006,427 lots, down 34,906 lots; the net long position is 13,208 lots, up 16,661 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 7300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China is 5829.26 yuan/ton, down 192.22 yuan [3]. - The price of ethylene - based PVC in South China is 6725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China is 5828.75 yuan/ton, down 312.5 yuan [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 203 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in Central China, North China, and Northwest China are 2900 yuan/ton, 2921.67 yuan/ton, and 2773 yuan/ton respectively, with the price in Northwest China up 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 916 US dollars/ton and 969 US dollars/ton respectively, up 129 US dollars/ton and 181 US dollars/ton [3]. - The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia are 351 US dollars/ton and 350 US dollars/ton respectively, up 51 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23%; the start - up rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78%; the start - up rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36% [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 610,500 tons, down 21,300 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 567,300 tons, down 13,500 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 43,200 tons, down 7800 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45; the cumulative value of newly started housing area is 587,699,600 square meters, up 53,132,600 square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, up 38,240,900 square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, up 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC is 32.31%, down 0.04% [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC is 50.78%, down 3.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC is 50.77%, down 3.69% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period [3]. - From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35% [3]. - As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.3713 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.55% and a year - on - year increase of 64.47% [3]. - From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand of PVC is in a tight balance. The high inventory in the early stage is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the influence of Middle - East geopolitical news. With the downstream entering the traditional peak season, the downstream start - up rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level throughout the year. In the context of the continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the positive impact on exports in the future cannot be falsified [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5853 yuan/ton, down 398 yuan; the trading volume is 1977737 lots, down 99122 lots; the open interest is 753229 lots, down 50885 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 1037880 lots, down 16718 lots; the short positions are 1041333 lots, down 5499 lots; the net long positions are - 3453 lots, down 11219 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 7300 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6021.48 yuan/ton, up 328.15 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6725 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 6141.25 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe is 1050 US dollars/ton, with no change. The basis of PVC is - 301 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2900 yuan/ton, with no change; in North China, it is 2921.67 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Northwest China, it is 2733 yuan/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 916 US dollars/ton, up 129 US dollars; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 969 US dollars/ton, up 181 US dollars. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 351 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 350 US dollars/ton, up 51 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 80.12%, down 1.23 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 84.71%, up 1.78 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 69.24%, down 8.36 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 61.05 tons, down 2.13 tons; the total social inventory in East China is 56.73 tons, down 1.35 tons; the total social inventory in South China is 4.32 tons, down 0.78 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58769.96 square meters, up 5313.26 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 659890.29 square meters, up 3824.09 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 44895.98 billion yuan, up 2871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.74%, down 0.53 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.31%, down 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 50.78%, down 3.75 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 50.77%, down 3.69 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, China's capacity utilization rate was 80.12%, down 1.23% from the previous period. From March 14th to 20th, the downstream start - up rate of PVC increased by 2.33% to 41.66%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 39.2%, and the start - up rate of profiles increased by 4.35% to 34.35%. As of March 19th, the social inventory of PVC was 137.13 tons, a 2.55% decrease from the previous period and a 64.47% increase year - on - year. From March 13th to 19th, the average cost of calcium - carbide - based PVC increased by 4.68% to 5391 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 13.06% to 7294 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 193 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 198 yuan/ton to - 433 yuan/ton [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown resilience, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.14 percentage points despite a weekly decline of 2.05% [2] - Key coal mines reported a slight decrease in average daily sales but a year-on-year increase, indicating stable demand [2] - The recent surge in coking coal futures is driven by downstream restocking expectations and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a potential price rebound [6][28] Summary by Sections Supply Side - Average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.54 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port stocks) was 24.53 million tons, down 2% week-on-week and down 31.1% year-on-year [2][7] Demand Side - Power and chemical industries have seen cumulative coal consumption increase by 1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The average daily coal consumption in the chemical sector was reported at 8.29 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [26] Price Side - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was reported at 687 RMB/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.29% [3] - Coking coal prices at major ports have shown mixed trends, with some ports experiencing price increases [4] - The futures settlement price for coking coal was 1,162 RMB/ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [4] Sentiment Side - The sentiment in the coal market remains optimistic due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and rising demand from the steel sector [6][28] - The overall market sentiment is supported by high steel prices and the suspension of coal exports from Russia [28]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PVC supply and demand are in a tight - balanced state, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. The V2605 is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to geopolitical news. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to rise to a relatively high level for the whole year. Overseas device shutdowns in South Korea and other countries are beneficial to PVC exports [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5860 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 125 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 2,273,087 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 267,171 lots; the open interest is 831,069 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 24,311 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,033,792 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 3,876 lots; the short position is 1,058,909 lots, with a ring - on - ring increase of 14,284 lots; the net long position is - 25,117 lots, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10,408 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,689.26 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 48.52 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,545 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 35 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,750.62 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 106.25 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 1,050 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 140 US dollars/ton. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 116 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,825 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 25 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2,833.33 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 43.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2,661 yuan/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 18 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, with no change. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 245 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 210 US dollars/ton. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 55 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, with a ring - on - ring increase of 50 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region is 58.08 tons, with no change; in the South China region, it is 5.1 tons, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587,699,600 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 53,132,600 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598,902,900 square meters, with a ring - on - ring increase of 38,240,900 square meters. The cumulative value of completed real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, with a ring - on - ring increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 39.97%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 2%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 32.09%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.87%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 48.67%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 48.68%, with a ring - on - ring decrease of 10.07% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% on a ring - on - ring basis, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38% and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30% on a ring - on - ring basis. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, with a ring - on - ring increase of 0.24%. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the national average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton on a ring - on - ring basis [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chlor-alkali industry is gradually reaching a bottom in its economic cycle, with the dual carbon policy and the mercury-free PVC initiative expected to accelerate the upward trend from this bottom [4][30] - The PVC market is anticipated to improve due to stable domestic demand, no new production capacity, and the cancellation of export tax rebates, which will expedite the exit of outdated production capacity [5][36] - The caustic soda market is expected to see increased demand while supply growth slows, leading to a potential recovery in the supply-demand balance [6] Summary by Sections Chlor-Alkali Industry - The chlor-alkali industry is characterized by high energy consumption, and the dual carbon policy will likely lead to the gradual exit of outdated production facilities [16][23] - As of Q4 2025, the profitability of the chlor-alkali industry has further declined, with significant losses expected to continue into 2026, prompting the elimination of inefficient production capacity [25][30] PVC Market - Domestic demand for PVC is relatively stable, with a significant portion used in the real estate sector, particularly in construction and renovation [36][37] - The PVC industry is not expected to see new production capacity, and the cancellation of export tax rebates will increase costs for outdated production facilities, accelerating their exit from the market [5][36] Caustic Soda Market - Demand for caustic soda is projected to increase due to rising needs in aluminum production and other sectors, while supply growth is expected to slow down, leading to a potential recovery in the market [6][36] - The supply-demand balance for caustic soda is anticipated to improve as new production capacity is limited and demand continues to rise [6]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chlor-alkali industry is gradually reaching the bottom of its economic cycle, with the dual carbon policy and the mercury-free PVC initiative expected to accelerate the upward trend from this bottom [4][30] - The PVC market is anticipated to improve due to stable domestic demand, no new production capacity, and the cancellation of export tax rebates, which will expedite the exit of outdated production capacity [5][36] - The demand for caustic soda is expected to increase while the supply growth rate slows down, leading to a potential recovery in the supply-demand balance [6] Summary by Sections Chlor-Alkali Industry - The chlor-alkali industry primarily produces caustic soda and PVC, which are essential for various sectors including infrastructure and real estate [14] - The industry is characterized as high energy-consuming, with policies expected to phase out outdated production facilities during the 14th Five-Year Plan [16][23] - The profitability of the chlor-alkali industry has been declining, with significant losses reported in Q4 2025, leading to a phase-out of inefficient production capacity [25][30] PVC Market - PVC demand is relatively stable, primarily driven by the real estate sector, with a notable decline in apparent consumption in 2025 [36][37] - The supply side is constrained by the lack of new production capacity and the mercury-free initiative, which is expected to alleviate supply pressure [5][36] - The long-term supply-demand dynamics for PVC are projected to improve, with price elasticity for future increases [5] Caustic Soda - Demand for caustic soda is expected to rise due to increased domestic and international aluminum oxide demand, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [6] - The supply-demand balance for caustic soda is expected to recover as new production capacity is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic calcium carbide method device load is increased to compensate for the loss of ethylene method device production, and the supply side changes little. The downstream is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and the operating rate is expected to recover to a relatively high level throughout the year. Many overseas devices in countries such as South Korea are shut down due to raw material supply problems, which is beneficial for PVC exports. The domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the previous high inventory is expected to be digested. In the short term, V2605 is expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical news, and technically, pay attention to the support around 5540 and the resistance around 6045 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan; the trading volume is 2,005,916 lots, a decrease of 425,714 lots; the open interest is 855,380 lots, a decrease of 46,740 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures is 1,029,916 lots, a decrease of 45,358 lots; the short position is 1,044,625 lots, a decrease of 40,512 lots; the net long position is -14,709 lots, a decrease of 4,846 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China is 6,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,737.78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.52 yuan. In South China, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 6,580 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 5,856.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.12 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 910 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 116 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2,643 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 787 US dollars/ton, an increase of 245 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 788 US dollars/ton, an increase of 210 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 300 US dollars/ton, an increase of 55 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it is 299 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC is 81.35%, an increase of 0.24%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 82.93%, an increase of 2.28%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.6%, a decrease of 4.61%. The total social inventory of PVC is 63.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons. The total social inventory in East China is 58.08 million tons, unchanged; in South China, it is 5.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.39 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.45. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 6,598.9029 million square meters, an increase of 38.2409 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 448.9598 billion yuan, an increase of 287.141 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 37.97%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.22%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 58.76%, a decrease of 5.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 58.75%, a decrease of 5.75% [3] 3.7 Industry News - From March 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 81.35%, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous period. From March 7th to 13th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 3.49% to 39.33% compared with the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 5% to 38%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 2.61% to 30%. As of March 12th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.4072 million tons, an increase of 0.24% compared with the previous week. From March 6th to 12th, the national average cost of calcium carbide method increased by 8.02% to 5,150 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of ethylene method increased by 20.22% to 6,452 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide method increased by 159 yuan/ton to 267 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene method increased by 48 yuan/ton to - 235 yuan/ton [3]