塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/2 5 820 7080 7200 9515 7350 830 785 -46 7169 -80 62 12736 2025/09/2 6 815 7080 7200 9500 7350 830 785 -46 7159 -80 59 12736 2025/09/2 9 815 7100 7215 9500 7350 830 785 -19 7181 -80 59 12736 2025/09/3 0 805 7080 7215 9500 7350 830 774 -19 7153 -80 59 12736 2025/10/0 9 805 7025 7200 9525 7350 830 774 -19 7077 -40 59 12729 日度变化 0 -55 -15 25 0 0 0 0 -76 40 0 -7 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50， ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-10-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4769 | -70 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 708041 | 116303 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1144046 | 70687 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 866897 | 29648 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 995262 | 45166 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -128365 | -15518 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4990 | -10 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4715 | -26.15 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4995 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4776.88 | -34.38 | | | PVC:中国 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-09-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4839 | -57 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 591738 | -62851 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1073359 | -1002 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 837249 | -7171 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 950096 | 8660 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -112847 | -15831 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5000 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4741.15 | -0.38 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4995 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4811.25 | -6.25 | | | PVC:中国:到 ...

塑 料 日期 东北亚乙 烯 华北LL 华东LL 华东LD 华东HD LL美金 LL美湾 进口利润 主力期货 基差 两油库存 仓单 2025/09/1 8 850 7120 7285 9540 7400 840 796 -97 7188 -90 64 12736 2025/09/1 9 845 7100 7250 9530 7400 840 796 -66 7169 -70 63 12736 2025/09/2 2 845 7070 7215 9530 7350 840 796 -97 7130 -60 63 12736 2025/09/2 3 845 7050 7190 9515 7350 840 796 -97 7105 -60 63 12736 2025/09/2 4 845 7070 7200 9515 7350 840 796 -97 7142 -60 63 12736 日度变化 0 20 10 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0 0 观点 聚乙烯，两油库存同比中性，上游两油去库，煤化工去库，社会库存持平，下游库存原料中性，成品库存中性。整体库存中性，09 基差华北-110左右，华东-50，外盘欧美稳， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - PVC开工率环比下降，下游开工率窄幅上升，但因下游消耗有限，社会库存持续增长且压力偏高 [3] - 电石价格上涨带动电石法成本环比上升，目前电石法、乙烯法工艺持续亏损 [3] - 短期暂无新增检修计划，受部分装置重启影响，本周PVC产能利用率预计环比上升；新产能投放在即，中长期加大行业供应压力 [3] - 临近国庆长假，国内部分下游已完成备货，PVC需求预计边际减弱；终端地产市场偏弱，持续拖累国内需求 [3] - 印度PVC反倾销政策预计即将落地，出口市场观望为主，社会库存压力偏高，后市难去化 [3] - 近期电石供需博弈，价格预计持稳整理；乙烯法成本预计变化不大；短期供需偏弱给V2601盘面压力，技术上关注4830附近支撑线支撑 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）收盘价为4919元/吨，环比上涨28元/吨；成交量为902670手，环比增加54062手；持仓量为1111748手，环比减少12387手 [3] - 期货前20名持仓中，买单量为864420手，环比增加19389手；卖单量为952064手，环比增加4665手；净买单量为 - 87644手，环比增加14724手 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - 华东地区乙烯法PVC价格为5000元/吨，环比下降10元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4746.92元/吨，环比下降38.85元/吨 [3] - 华南地区乙烯法PVC价格为4970元/吨，环比下降30元/吨；电石法PVC价格为4815元/吨，环比下降36.88元/吨 [3] - 中国PVC到岸价为700美元/吨，东南亚到岸价为650美元/吨，西北欧离岸价为710美元/吨，均无环比变化；基差为 - 179元/吨，环比下降28元/吨 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 华中、华北、西北电石主流均价分别为2800元/吨、2768.33元/吨、2610元/吨，均无环比变化；内蒙液氯主流价为 - 350元/吨，无环比变化 [3] - VCM、EDC在CFR远东和CFR东南亚的中间价均无环比变化 [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - 聚氯乙烯（PVC）开工率为76.96%，环比下降2.98%；其中电石法开工率为76.89%，环比下降2.5%；乙烯法开工率为77.12%，环比下降4.19% [3] - 社会库存总计53.46万吨，环比增加0.3万吨；华东地区总计48.21万吨，环比增加0.38万吨；华南地区总计5.25万吨，环比减少0.08万吨 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - 国房景气指数为93.05，环比下降0.29；房屋新开工面积累计值为39801.01万平方米，环比增加4595.01万平方米；房地产施工面积累计值为643108.94万平方米，环比增加4377.94万平方米；房地产开发投资完成额累计值为31693.94亿元，环比增加3588.01亿元 [3] 3.6 Option Market - 20日历史波动率为9.49%，环比下降0.32%；40日历史波动率为11.22%，环比上升0.16% [3] - 平值看跌期权隐含波动率和平值看涨期权隐含波动率均为14.21%，环比上升0.55% [3] 3.7 Industry News - 9月13 - 19日，PVC产能利用率环比下降2.98%至76.96%；下游开工率环比上升1.69%至49.19%，其中管材开工率环比上升1.52%至39.13%，型材开工率环比上升0.21%至39.43% [3] - 截至9月18日，PVC社会库存在95.37万吨，环比上周上升2.03% [3] - 9月13 - 19日，电石法周度平均成本环比上升至5230元/吨，乙烯法周度平均成本上升至5631元/吨；电石法周度利润环比下降155元/吨至657元/吨，乙烯法周度利润环比上升20元/吨至 - 652元/吨 [3]

| 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | -47 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 4891 | 848608 | 23698 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | -2075 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1124135 | 845031 | 1045 | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -950 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 947399 | -102368 | 1995 | | | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 5010 | 4785.77 | -0.77 | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 0 华 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows a complex situation. In the short - term, there is a game between weak supply - demand and cost support. The V2601 daily K - line is concerned about the support near 4900 yuan/ton. - The PVC social inventory continues to increase, with high pressure. The terminal real - estate market is weak, dragging down domestic demand. The Indian anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is in a wait - and - see state. - Currently, both calcium carbide and ethylene processes are in continuous losses. There are no planned new maintenance devices in the short term, and the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week due to the restart of some devices. New capacity is about to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of PVC (V2601) is 4938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the trading volume is 824910 hands, up 36539 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104363 hands, down 2087 hands [3]. - **Spot Market**: In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5010 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4786.54 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4851.25 yuan/ton, up 19.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions has increased. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at - 575 yuan/ton. The intermediate prices of VCM and EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.96%, down 2.98%. The social inventory of PVC is 53.46 tons, up 0.3 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative values of new housing construction area, real - estate construction area, and real - estate development investment have all increased [3]. - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of PVC have decreased. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options have increased slightly [3]. 3.2. Industry News - From September 13th to 19th, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.98% to 76.96%, and the downstream operating rate increased by 1.69% to 49.19%. Among them, the operating rate of pipes increased by 1.52% to 39.13%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 0.21% to 39.43% [3]. - As of September 18th, the PVC social inventory was 95.37 tons, up 2.03% from the previous week. The weekly average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased to 5230 yuan/ton, and the weekly average cost of ethylene - based PVC increased to 5631 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 657 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of ethylene - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 652 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The V2601 contract of PVC fluctuates with a bullish bias, closing at 4,973 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased by 2.81% week-on-week to 79.94% last week on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 4% week-on-week to 47.5% last week, with the pipe开工率 up 4.13% to 37.61% and the profile开工率 up 0.83% to 39.22%. The PVC social inventory increased by 1.75% week-on-week to 93.42 million tons last week. This week, the impact of the shutdown of Beiyuan and Jinchuan's devices will expand, and new maintenance devices such as Ningxia Yinglite and Haohua will be added, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline significantly. A total of 900,000 tons of devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production in September, increasing the industry's supply pressure in the medium and long term. Affected by pre - holiday stocking in the domestic market, the开工率 of some product enterprises has recently increased. The terminal real - estate market is weak, continuously dragging down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy on PVC is expected to be implemented soon, and the export market is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The profitability of caustic soda is considerable, weakening the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene. From a macro perspective, the talks between China, the US, and Spain have progressed smoothly, and a new round of policies to stabilize growth in key domestic industries is about to be introduced. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 5,050 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,973 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 13 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 726,307 hands, a decrease of 330,119 hands. The open interest is 1,123,935 hands, a decrease of 14,778 hands. The long positions of the top 20 futures are 847,891 hands, a decrease of 8,484 hands; the short positions are 945,472 hands, a decrease of 21,500 hands; the net long positions are - 97,581 hands, an increase of 13,016 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,020 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,803.46 yuan/ton, up 53.46 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4,980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4,854.38 yuan/ton, up 36.88 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2,718.33 yuan/ton, up 53.33 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, it is 2,560 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East is 509 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia is 546 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East is 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia is 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall开工率 of PVC is 79.94%, with the ethylene - based PVC开工率 at 81.31% and the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 at 79.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81% and 3.17% respectively. The total social inventory of PVC is 53.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The total social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 47.83 million tons, an increase of 0.02 million tons; in the South China region, it is 5.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons. The National Real Estate Climate Index is 93.34, a decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,206 million square meters, an increase of 4,841.68 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 638,731 million square meters, an increase of 5,409.57 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 281.0593 billion yuan, an increase of 36.3043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 9.28%, an increase of 0.04%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.42%, a decrease of 0.59%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.02%, a decrease of 0.3%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 13.98%, a decrease of 0.34% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 15, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,670 to 4,860 yuan/ton. From September 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.94%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. As of September 11th, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.75% to 93.42 million tons [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The PVC market shows mixed trends. Supply - side: this week, the impact of shutdowns at Beiyuan and Jinchuan expands, and new maintenance at Ningxia Yinglite and Haohua is added, likely causing a significant drop in capacity utilization. In the long - term, 900,000 tons of new installations from Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production in September, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side: due to pre - holiday stocking in China, the operating rate of some product enterprises has increased recently. However, the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand, and the upcoming anti - dumping policy in India has led to a wait - and - see attitude in the export market. Also, high caustic soda profits weaken the cost support of calcium carbide and ethylene. With the upcoming favorable policies for key industries, industrial products rose on the day. Technically, the daily K - line of V2601 should pay attention to the pressure around 4975 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4921 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; trading volume is 990,616 hands, up 346,696 hands; open interest is 1,200,474 hands, down 35,157 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 130,878 hands, up 19,831 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4995 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4701.54 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4793.75 yuan/ton, up 3.12 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 650 dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 690 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 211 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in North China, it is 2640 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2438 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 509 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it is 546 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 189 dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it is 201 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 79.94%, up 2.81 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.31%, up 3.17 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is not clearly presented in a comparable way in the table. The total social inventory of PVC is 79.39 million tons, down 0.14 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The social inventory of PVC in the East China region is 47.83 million tons, up 0.02 million tons; in the South China region, it is 5.33 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.38731 billion square meters, up 54.0957 million square meters; the cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.81%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.28%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 14.98%, down 0.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 14.98%, down 0.05 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 15th, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 rose by 20 - 60 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, ranging from 4620 - 4800 yuan/ton. From September 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization was 79.94%, up 2.81% from the previous period. As of September 11th, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.75% to 934,200 tons. Last week, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 4% to 47.5%, with the pipe operating rate up 4.13% to 37.61% and the profile operating rate up 0.83% to 39.22% [3].

Core Insights - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) announced the construction of five chemical projects within the new production complex in Ruwais, with plans to sign a contract for the sixth plant by the end of this year [1] Group 1: Project Development - The initial development phase of the complex will achieve an annual production capacity of 4.7 million tons of bulk chemical products, including methanol, low-carbon ammonia, caustic soda, ethylene dichloride (EDC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) [1] - Out of the six projects, five are currently under construction, and the contract for the sixth plant is expected to be awarded later this year [1] Group 2: Company Structure and Future Plans - Ta'ziz is a joint venture formed by ADNOC and the sovereign wealth fund ADQ, with ADNOC holding the majority stake [1] - ADNOC and ADQ have previously disclosed plans for further development of the Ta'ziz complex, including the construction of a world-class steam cracking facility and downstream derivative plants, which will double the total chemical production capacity of the site compared to current levels [1]