聚氯乙烯(PVC)

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对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,趋势偏强,正套PTA:三房巷新装置投产,正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:三房巷新装置投产,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期偏强,中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青:裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP:短线反弹,中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:短期回调,关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素:弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期偏强,中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:进口成本存支撑,但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC:趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:夜盘高位震荡,短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油:近月合约持续上涨,外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...
PVC产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:32
一个月内落地。成本方面,电石下游配套装置重启,价格存在反弹空间;乙烯供需偏紧持续,价格或维持 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 坚挺。出口利空加大PVC供需矛盾,持续对价格形成压力。技术上,V2601关注4900附近支撑与5100附近 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5047 | 28 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1088126 | 395393 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1008160 | 26929 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 853070 | 1523 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 934697 | 19110 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -81627 | -17587 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) ...
煤炭行业周报(8月第4周):社会库存继续下降,期货大涨提振信心-20250823
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-23 13:46
证券研究报告 社会库存继续下降,期货大涨提振信心 ——煤炭行业周报(8月第4周) 行业评级:看好 2025年8月23日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨,跑输沪深300指数:截止2025年8月22日,中信煤炭行业收涨1.23%,沪深300指数上涨4.18%,跑输沪深300指数2.95个百分点。全板块整周18只股价上涨,16只下跌, 3只持平。安源煤业涨幅最高,整周涨幅为17.26%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据:中国煤炭运销协会数据,2025年8月15日-2025年8月21日,重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为708万吨,周环比减少1.1%,年同比减少0.7%。其中,动力煤周日均销 量较上周减少0.5%,炼焦煤销量较上周增加1.3%,无烟煤销量较上周减少3.2%。截至2025年8月21日,重点监测企业煤炭库存总量(含港存)2671万吨,周环比增加2%,年同比减少 0.8%。今年以来,供给端,重点监测企业煤炭累计销量161312.8万吨,同比减少2.7%;其中动力煤、焦煤、无烟煤累计销量分别同比-3 ...
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. The expected return of inland supply is anticipated. With the upcoming peak season for traditional demand, attention should be given to whether demand can support the market after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance has decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation, US quotes, and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been consistently good this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, with the load center between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and export sustainability in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 801 | 2325 | 2325 | 2550 | 2560 | 2560 | 2695 | 264 | 324 | 34 | - 8 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/18 | 801 | 2307 | 2303 | 2515 | 2535 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 324 | 24 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/19 | 801 | 2280 | 2280 | 2515 | 2500 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 322 | 13 | 0 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/20 | 801 | 2305 | 2290 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/21 | 801 | 2305 | 2305 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | |日度变化|0|0|15|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|[2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 825 | 7220 | 7335 | 9525 | 7650 | 850 | 906 | - 134 | 7351 | - 80 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/18 | 825 | 7200 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 170 | 7334 | - 120 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/19 | 825 | 7180 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 167 | 7307 | - 120 | 77 | 7724 | | 2025/08/20 | 830 | 7200 | 7300 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7347 | - 110 | 77 | 7684 | | 2025/08/21 | 830 | 7230 | 7325 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7386 | - 160 | 77 | 7684 | |日度变化|0|30|25|0|0|0|0|0|39|- 50|0|0|[7] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 6400 | 745 | 7035 | 7058 | 6900 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 19 | 7084 | - 50 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/18 | 6400 | 745 | 7005 | 7035 | 6870 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 16 | 7048 | - 60 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/19 | 6400 | 745 | 6970 | 7015 | 6870 | 7230 | 865 | 970 | - 14 | 7016 | - 50 | 77 | 14040 | | 2025/08/20 | 6380 | 750 | 6930 | 7000 | 6860 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7056 | - 50 | 77 | 13940 | | 2025/08/21 | 6450 | 750 | 6950 | 6998 | 6870 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7048 | - 90 | 77 | 13940 | |日度变化|70|0|20|- 2|10|0|0|0|0|- 8|- 40|0|0|[7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 2250 | 852 | 4880 | 5500 | 5450 | 4550 | 700 | 468 | 356 | - 244 | - 70 | | 2025/08/18 | 2200 | 872 | 4860 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 492 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/19 | 2200 | 872 | 4820 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/20 | 2200 | 872 | 4800 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/21 | 2200 | 867 | 4850 | 5500 | 5450 | 4500 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 180 | |日度变化|0|- 5|50|0|0|- 30|0|0|0|0|- 10|[7]
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:05
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The V2601 contract of PVC ended at 5008 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the PVC capacity utilization rate increase by 0.87% week-on-week to 80.33% last week. The demand side had the downstream PVC开工率 decrease by 0.1% week-on-week to 42.75% last week. PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week-on-week to 81.14 million tons. This week, due to plant overhauls, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the medium to long term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor-alkali profits provide room for increasing PVC plant load, so the future supply pressure remains unoptimistic. Domestic downstream demand is in the off-season with only rigid procurement. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented as early as September. The rainy season still hinders short - term overseas demand transmission. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5008 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 960,719 lots, a daily increase of 280,340 lots. The open interest was 943,093 lots, a daily increase of 20,013 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 852,889 lots, a daily decrease of 3,341 lots. The short positions were 921,736 lots, a daily decrease of 15,497 lots. The net long positions were - 68,847 lots, a daily increase of 12,156 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5065 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4777.69 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 46.54 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4955 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4846.56 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 32.81 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 251 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2548.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.96%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%. The total social inventory of PVC was 492,800 tons, a daily increase of 12,000 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 435,200 tons, a daily increase of 11,500 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 57,600 tons, a daily increase of 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a monthly decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35.206 million square meters, a monthly increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, a monthly increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.25%, a daily decrease of 3.7%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 22.06%, a daily decrease of 0.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.39%, a daily decrease of 1.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.4%, a daily decrease of 14.17% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC. The rate for mainland China will be raised much higher than that for other countries and regions. - On August 20, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4700 to 4800 yuan/ton. - From August 9 to August 15, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. - As of August 14, PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week - on - week to 81.14 million tons and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:53
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: Port inventory has increased significantly, with high imports and actual inventory. The supply in the inland region is expected to return, and the traditional demand will enter the peak season later. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the demand can be supported after the supply in the inland region returns. If the inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol is expected to see a valuation correction [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the coal - chemical industry is reducing inventory. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for the time being. The non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. The number of maintenance in August has decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotation. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is relatively large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [7]. - **Polypropylene**: The upstream two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been performing well this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis is maintained at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - upstream has slowed down. The northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high price of caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the daily change in power coal futures was 0, the Jiangsu spot price decreased by 27, the South China spot price decreased by 23, the Lunan discounted price remained unchanged, the Southwest discounted price decreased by 35, the Hebei discounted price remained unchanged, the Northwest discounted price remained unchanged, the CFR China price remained unchanged, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 5, and the main contract basis and the MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained unchanged, the North China LL price decreased by 20, the East China LL price remained unchanged, the East China LD price remained unchanged, the East China HD price remained unchanged, the LL US dollar price remained unchanged, the LL US Gulf price remained unchanged, the import profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 27, the basis remained unchanged, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 379 [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Shandong propylene price remained unchanged, the Northeast Asian propylene price remained unchanged, the East China PP price decreased by 35, the North China PP price decreased by 20, the Shandong powder price remained unchanged, the East China copolymer price decreased by 4, the PP US dollar price remained unchanged, the PP US Gulf price remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the main futures price decreased by 32, the basis increased by 10, the two - oil inventory remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1180 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: On August 19, 2025, compared with August 18, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained unchanged, the Shandong caustic soda price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based East China price decreased by 40, the ethylene - based East China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based South China price remained unchanged, the calcium - carbide - based Northwest price remained unchanged, the import US dollar price (CFR China) remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the Northwest comprehensive profit remained unchanged, the North China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained unchanged [7].
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250818
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is facing a complex situation. In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures (V2601) is 5054 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the trading volume is 819,976 lots, up 315,680 lots; the open interest is 869,290 lots, up 83,334 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 63,473 lots, down 4,750 lots [3]. Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5075 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4869.23 yuan/ton, down 10.38 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5005 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4906.88 yuan/ton, down 25.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC is - 254 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China is 2548.33 yuan/ton, down 41.67 yuan, and in Northwest China is 2320 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of VCM CFR in the Far East is 521 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and in Southeast Asia is 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The intermediate price of EDC CFR in the Far East is 181 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars, and in Southeast Asia is 189 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars [3]. Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 80.33%, up 0.87 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 79.96%, up 1.31 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 81.26%, down 0.23 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 49.28 tons, up 1.2 tons. The inventory in the East China region is 43.52 tons, up 1.15 tons, and in the South China region is 5.76 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 244.755 billion yuan, up 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 25.96%, down 3.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.03%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.81%, up 5.3 percentage points [3]. Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC, with a much higher increase for the Chinese mainland than other countries and regions. The market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou on August 18 was 0 - 50 yuan/ton lower than last Friday, at 4780 - 4880 yuan/ton. The PVC main contract has changed to V2601, which closed down 1.17% at 5054 yuan/ton. From August 9 to 15, the PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 80.33%, up 0.87% from the previous period. As of August 14, the PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% to 811,400 tons compared with the previous period, and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3]. Viewpoint Summary - In the short - term, due to the maintenance of some factories, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the long - term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor - alkali profit provides room for increasing the PVC device load, so the supply pressure in the future market is still not optimistic. The domestic downstream demand is in the off - season with only rigid procurement, and the weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping policy in India and the rainy season also hinder short - term overseas demand. The domestic calcium - carbide price is under pressure, and the US dollar price of ethylene may maintain a slight upward trend. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4970 [3][4].
氯碱月报:SH:市场情绪较好,关注氧化铝提货情况,V:供需格局偏弱,下游未见改善-20250818
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:28
Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views Caustic Soda - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has high profits, driving an increase in restocking demand. In the East China region, downstream rigid demand provides support, resulting in low inventory pressure for enterprises. In the North, supply exceeds demand, while in the Southwest, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production drives a steady increase in raw material demand. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. With no significant positive support on the demand side, the downstream's acceptance of price increases is limited, and the enthusiasm for taking delivery is weak. In the coming week, the price in Shandong will generally remain stable, with a possible decline in the southwestern part of Shandong. In the later period, attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises. As the main delivery month approaches, the upward price range is expected to be limited [2]. - The 09 contract's fluctuation range is expected to be between 2,500 - 2,650 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for options [2]. PVC - This week, the PVC market was affected by the sentiment in the black sector and rumors in the salt chemical industry, causing the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. The overall fundamentals have not changed significantly, with sufficient supply and no improvement in demand. Spot trading is dull. The release of new production capacity has added new pressure to the supply side. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure is still high, and the price is expected to weaken. However, attention should be paid to the potential boost of PVC prices by coking coal from the raw material side [3]. - For futures, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. For options, it is recommended to buy put options [3]. Summary by Catalog Caustic Soda Price and Market Trends - The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - economic conditions, alumina demand, and cost changes. For example, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the improvement of alumina profits have increased the willingness to purchase caustic soda in the spot market, driving up the futures price. On the other hand, factors such as the expected increase in new caustic soda production capacity, the decline in alumina support in the medium - term, and the decrease in costs have led to a downward trend in the futures price [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 87.34%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points from 89.10% last week. There were still chlor - alkali plant overhauls or temporary shutdowns this week, and some enterprises adjusted production during off - peak periods, resulting in a decline in the operating load rate. The operating rate in Shandong was 87.15%, a decrease of 2.23% [25]. - On August 13, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 233,600 tons, an increase of 6.62% from 219,100 tons on August 6. In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises was 83,900 tons on August 13, an increase of 1.57% from 82,600 tons on August 6 [25]. Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will exceed 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons in demand from April to June [30]. - The spot trading volume of alumina has rebounded slightly. The opening rate of alumina plants has remained stable nationwide. The impact on caustic soda demand depends on whether the alumina bauxite shipment volume decreases [37]. PVC Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, weak domestic and foreign demand, and poor macro - market sentiment, showing a downward trend. However, factors such as policy expectations and low - price demand recovery have also led to short - term rebounds [63]. Supply - This week, the overall operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. There was only one new plant under overhaul this week, and the overhaul loss decreased compared with the previous week. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 78.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points, and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points [85]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure, and the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real estate market, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," will continue to have a negative impact on demand. Domestic demand has not improved significantly. According to Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so it is difficult for PVC downstream demand to have positive drivers [95]. Inventory - The PVC inventory has continued to increase month - on - month, showing significant pressure. The social inventory in East and South China, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all increased [103]. Export - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with an average export price of $611 per ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.9605 million tons. The single - month export volume decreased by 27.61% month - on - month, increased by 21.03% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 50.26% year - on - year. The import volume in June was 24,000 tons, with an average import price of $703 per ton. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 124,300 tons. The single - month import volume increased by 63.80% month - on - month, increased by 32.61% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 0.51% year - on - year [121].
华东师范大学发表最新Science论文
生物世界· 2025-08-17 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a novel integrated low-temperature upgrading process for PVC and polyolefins, developed by a research team led by Zhang Wei, which converts waste plastics into chlorine-free fuel hydrocarbons and hydrochloric acid (HCl) [3][4]. Group 1: Research Development - The research paper titled "Integrated low-temperature PVC and polyolefin upgrading" was published in the prestigious journal Science on August 14, 2025 [3]. - The new process utilizes a single-stage method under the catalytic action of chloroaluminate ionic liquids to upgrade waste PVC into chlorine-free fuel hydrocarbons and HCl [4]. Group 2: Process Details - The process involves a low-temperature sequential method using isobutane or isopentane for exothermic alkylation and hydrogen transfer, which offsets the endothermic dechlorination and carbon-carbon bond cleavage [4]. - This upgrading process is suitable for handling mixed and contaminated waste streams of PVC and polyolefins found in real-world scenarios [4].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250815
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 09:14
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Methanol: This week, it fluctuated with coal. Its fundamental situation changed little, still in the process of inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Polyethylene (PE): The inventory of major producers is neutral year - on - year. Upstream producers are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. In August, the number of maintenance projects decreased month - on - month, and the domestic linear production increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [5]. - Polypropylene (PP): The upstream inventory of major producers is increasing, while the middle - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 200. Supply is expected to increase slightly in June. If exports continue to grow or PDH device maintenance increases, the supply pressure can be alleviated [5]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, and costs are stabilizing [5]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th, the daily change of动力煤期货is 0,江苏现货decreased by 25,华南现货decreased by 23, etc. [2] - **Market Situation**: It follows coal price fluctuations, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in inventory accumulation, with high imports and normal valuation, and short - term oscillation is expected [2]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,东北亚乙烯increased by 5,华北LL decreased by 25, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the basis in North China is around - 150 and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and the LD price is weakening. The number of maintenance projects decreased in August, and domestic linear production increased [5]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,山东丙烯decreased by 50,华东PP decreased by 20, etc. [5] - **Market Situation**: Upstream inventory is increasing, mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been good. The PDH profit is around - 200, and supply is expected to increase slightly in June [5]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Data**: From August 8th to 14th,西北电石decreased by 50,山东烧碱increased by 10,电石法 - 华东decreased by 40 [5]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, the downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises is decreasing at a slower pace. Attention should be paid to production commissioning and export sustainability from July to August [5].