| | | 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 温上升增加，电石法成本支撑偏弱；乙烯法成本受中东地缘冲突影响有走强趋势，但影响相对有限。短期V 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4939 | 71 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 2274341 | 279227 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1149647 | -58135 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1117193 | -36795 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1218510 | -68824 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -101317 | 32029 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4930 | 5 华东:PVC:电石法(日, ...

国内 期货主力合约涨跌不一，氧化铝跌4%，碳酸锂、聚氯乙烯（ PVC）、丙烯、 甲醇、塑料、多晶 硅跌超2%；涨幅方面，铂涨超5%，沪锡涨超3%，硅铁涨超2%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC is a hub variety connecting energy, chemicals, real estate, and infrastructure. The dual - process upstream determines cost elasticity, the mid - stream chlor - alkali co - production determines the supply rhythm, and the downstream real estate and infrastructure determine the demand level. Understanding the core framework of "coal - calcium carbide cost as the king, real estate demand as the soul, and inventory cycle as the rhythm" helps to understand PVC futures fluctuation rules [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Upstream Raw Materials: Dual - Process Route Determines the Cost Background - China's PVC industry has a unique pattern with the calcium carbide method as the main process and the ethylene method as the auxiliary, matching the resource endowment of "rich in coal, poor in oil, and short in gas". The total domestic PVC production capacity is nearly 30 million tons, with the calcium carbide method accounting for about 72% and the ethylene method about 28%. The cost and fluctuation logic of the two routes are different [3]. - For the calcium carbide method, the upstream includes coal, limestone, and raw salt. Producing 1 ton of PVC consumes about 1.4 - 1.5 tons of calcium carbide. The cost of calcium carbide is directly determined by the price of steam coal, which in turn dominates the PVC cost center. Chlor - alkali co - production makes the prices of PVC and caustic soda often show a linkage effect [3]. - For the ethylene method, the upstream includes crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene. The cost is deeply linked to international oil prices. The raw materials ethylene and VCM account for 55% - 60% of the production cost. The ethylene - method devices are mostly distributed in the coastal areas of East and South China, and their costs are more affected by overseas energy and exchange - rate fluctuations [3]. Mid - stream Production: Chlor - Alkali Integration and Supply - Demand Pattern - The mid - stream is the core production link of PVC, including processes such as VCM synthesis, polymerization, and granulation. The industry features large production capacity, differentiated operating rates, and integration as the key. China's PVC production capacity accounts for nearly half of the world's, but the industry has long faced over - capacity pressure. Newly added production capacity is mainly of the ethylene method, while the expansion of the calcium carbide method is restricted by environmental protection and dual - carbon policies [4]. - The profit of production enterprises highly depends on the chlor - alkali balance. When caustic soda is profitable, enterprises tend to operate at high loads, leading to a passive increase in PVC supply; when caustic soda incurs losses, the devices reduce loads, and PVC supply contracts. This co - production mechanism makes the PVC supply elasticity weak, and the inventory cycle has a more significant impact on prices [4]. - Inventory is a key mid - stream indicator, including factory inventory, social inventory, and futures warehouse receipts. The periods around the Spring Festival, the maintenance season, and the real - estate peak season are key nodes for inventory fluctuations. The inventory accumulation cycle suppresses prices, while the de - stocking cycle boosts the market. Changes in PVC futures warehouse receipts directly affect market sentiment, and high warehouse - receipt levels often correspond to periodic pressure [4]. Downstream Demand: Dominated by Real Estate and Infrastructure, with Diverse Application Scenarios - PVC downstream is mainly composed of hard products, supplemented by soft products. The demand is highly concentrated in the construction and infrastructure fields, accounting for over 60% of the total, making it a typical "cyclical product" [5]. - The largest demand is for pipes and fittings, accounting for about 40%, which are used in municipal water supply and drainage, gas pipelines, and real - estate pipe networks, and are strongly related to real - estate completion and infrastructure investment. The second - largest demand is for profiles and doors and windows, accounting for about 20%, benefiting from affordable housing, old - building renovation, and energy - saving window replacement. Soft products, including cable materials, artificial leather, films, and floors, account for about 20%, with relatively stable demand. Other fields such as packaging, medical, and industrial products account for about 10%, providing demand resilience [5]. - The demand rhythm shows obvious seasonality: the spring resumption of work and the autumn rush to complete projects are the two peak seasons, while winter and the rainy season are the off - seasons. Exports are also important, with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa as the main destinations. Export tax rebates, international price differences, and shipping prices directly affect export volumes, serving as an important channel for clearing domestic over - capacity [5].

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年2月26日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂涨超11%，沪锡涨超5%，沪银涨超 2%，铝合金、液化石油气（LPG）、燃料油、沪铝涨超1%。跌幅方面，合成橡胶跌超2%，PX、PTA跌 超1%，聚氯乙烯（PVC）、乙二醇（EG）、烧碱跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 类机 | 卖价 | 法相关于 | 英语 | 英国 | 成交量 | 法联 | 持合量 | 日増仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 联赛季2605 M | 187000 | 4510 | 186000 | 187000 | 11.42% | 180 | 6 | | 4510 19160 | 377197 | 160 | | 2 | 护锅2603 M | 423950 | 63 | 423950 | 423980 | 5.76% | ਸ | 5 | 87109 23090 | | 177 ...

国内PVC现实端依然偏空。不过，市场对行业春检、后市增量政策，以及国内部分低效产能退出的预期较为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 乐观。PVC弱现实与强预期博弈，短期震荡对待。技术上，V2605日度K线关注4900附近支撑与5010附近压 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 力。 免责声明 | | | PVC产业日报 2026-02-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4963 | 15 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1161838 | -155627 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1130097 | 55686 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1099698 | 26862 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1197058 | 29686 前20名持仓:净买单量: ...

FFF START FREE 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/25 す77 煤期 河北折盘 西北折盘 CFR东南 量商行营 江苏现货 CFR中国 华南现货 进口利润| 主力基差 型商标准面 E lif E E 2210 2398 2315 2443 323 2205 263 -3 2220 2215 2395 2315 263 323 -7 2438 2213 2390 2213 2315 2438 263 323 -15 2210 2205 2390 2315 2438 259 321 -0 2243 2255 2400 2315 2468 图记 33 50 10 30 O 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MTO利润卡住了上限，除非其余下游涨价，目前看来偏空或卖看涨 期权较合适。 MA现货价格走势 MA基差 ● 华东出罐:中间价 ● 西北/陕西:中间价 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 ● 山东:中间价 ● MA进口折人民币 ● 2021 ● 2022 ● ...

维持高位积累趋势，供需驱动依然偏空。不过，在"反内卷"周期与PVC行业无汞化转型周期相叠加的影响 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | PVC产业日报 2026-02-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4938 | -52 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 815778 | -88754 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1101478 | -9805 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1069537 | -10791 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1186526 | -7436 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -116989 | -3355 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4980 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4753.7 | 9.26 | | | 华 ...

沪锡、沪银涨超3%，烧碱、豆一涨超2%，SC原油、燃料油、低硫燃料油（LU）涨超1%；跌幅方面， 集运欧线跌超3%，苯乙烯（EB）跌超2%，多晶硅、焦煤、聚氯乙烯（PVC）、焦炭、工业硅跌超 1%。 沪锡、沪银涨超3%，烧碱、豆一涨超2%，SC原油、燃料油、低硫燃料油（LU）涨超1%；跌幅方面， 集运欧线跌超3%，苯乙烯（EB）跌超2%，多晶硅、焦煤、聚氯乙烯（PVC）、焦炭、工业硅跌超 1%。 ...

PVC产业日报 2026-02-04 响下，市场对于后市供应压力缓解的预期较为乐观，给到盘面一定支撑。PVC市场弱现实与强预期相博弈， 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 短期盘面预计宽幅震荡。V2605日度区间预计在5000-5200附近。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5155 | 84 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 2182106 | -24041 | | | 持仓量:聚氯 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For methanol, with the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance, some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have parking plans. Currently, methanol has limited upward and downward space, and it is more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [1] - For PE, the spot price is stable, the basis is weak, oil - and coal - based profits turn worse, upstream inventories are decreasing while social inventories are increasing. The supply of standard products is growing, and the supply - demand balance of LL in the 05 contract is under pressure [4] - For PP, the market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral. The balance sheet for the 05 contract and later is expected to be slightly under pressure [10] - For PVC, the basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, and the medium - and long - term outlook is poor [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - Price data includes various regional prices such as Hebei, Northwest, CFR Southeast, etc. The price fluctuations are shown, and the MTO profit situation restricts the upward space of methanol prices [1] - Graphs show the trends of MA spot price, basis, regional price differences, production profits, MTO profits, international price ratios, etc. [1] PE - Price and inventory data: On January 2, 2026, there are prices for Northeast Asia ethylene, various PE products in different regions, and related inventory and basis data. The daily changes show price and basis fluctuations [4] - Market conditions: The market is volatile, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changes in production profits and inventory levels. The supply of standard products is increasing, and the supply - demand balance of LL is under pressure [4] PP - Price and inventory data: There are prices for Northeast Asia propylene, various PP products in different regions, import and export profits, and basis data on January 26 - 30, 2026, along with daily changes [10] - Market conditions: The market is stable, the basis is weak, import and export profits are negative, and the export volume is slightly decreasing. Supply is flat in January, downstream demand shows some improvement, and overall inventory is neutral [10] PVC - Price and profit data: From January 26 - 30, 2026, there are prices for Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and different production methods of PVC in different regions, as well as profit and basis data [11][12] - Market conditions: The basis is improving, the market transaction is average, the comprehensive profit is low, the short - term seasonal start - up is recovering, and the overall inventory is high. The long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak [12]