Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious increase rating for the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in the market due to supportive policies and structural adjustments [61]. Core Insights - Since 2022, the real estate market in China has entered a multi-faceted adjustment phase, with significant declines in sales, development, and investment activities [7][14]. - Continuous policy support from central and local governments aims to stabilize the market, with measures focusing on risk mitigation and market confidence restoration [15][17]. - The smart home system market within the decorated housing sector has shown resilience, with increasing penetration rates despite overall market contraction [19][30]. - Downstream industries such as home appliances, light industry, and renovation credit have demonstrated strong resilience through proactive transformations and policy support [33][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Status of the Real Estate Market and Stabilization Policies - The sales area of commercial housing has significantly declined, with a 45.73% drop from 2021 to 2024 [7]. - The total sales value of commercial housing has also decreased by 46.82% during the same period [7]. - New construction and construction scale have seen a notable decline, with new housing starts down by 62.85% and construction area down by 24.82% by 2024 [9][11]. 2. Analysis of the Trend in Decorated Housing - The penetration rate of decorated housing peaked in 2022 but has since decreased by 16.92% by 2024, indicating a phase of adjustment [19]. - New decorated housing projects have decreased by 64.98% and the number of units has dropped by 76.79% by 2024 [26]. - The penetration of smart home systems has increased, with a growth of 12.29% from 2021 to 2024 [29]. 3. Resilience of Downstream Industries - The home appliance industry has shifted from dependence on new housing to benefiting from policies like the old-for-new program, leading to a retail value of 1,030.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.22% [36]. - The light industry has transitioned from a channel-driven model to a service-driven approach, resulting in an 11.11% increase in furniture production from 2021 to 2024 [48]. - The renovation credit industry has seen a 20% growth since 2022, with expectations to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in market size by 2025 [53].