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橡树资本马克斯:特朗普喜欢”不可预测性“,当前美股”不便宜“但还”没泡沫“
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-12 03:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors should remain cautious despite the recent market rebound due to Trump's suspension of tariffs, as the unpredictability of his policies poses risks [1][3]. - Howard Marks emphasizes that the current high market valuations require a careful approach, as global asset prices are at or near historical highs, making it difficult to find "cheap" assets [3][5]. - Marks notes that while the market is expensive, it has not yet shown signs of "psychological excesses," indicating that it may not have entered a phase of irrational exuberance [3]. Group 2 - The ongoing increase in U.S. debt is creating significant uncertainty in the market, which Marks identifies as a structural risk [4][5]. - Marks admits that predicting the timing of a potential crisis triggered by debt issues is challenging, reinforcing the message that managing downside risk is more critical than trying to forecast the next market trend [5].