截至周四，标普500指数的未来12个月预期市盈率已超过22倍。从历史水平来看，这一估值已处于高 位，与2022年1月初市场见顶时的估值水平几乎持平——彼时正是长达9个月熊市的开端。 埃塞称，这意味着市场已经没有容错空间。根据市场共识，去年12月美国预计新增非农就业人数6万 人，接近11月初步统计的6.4万人；失业率预计将从4.6%降至4.5%。 1月9日，2026年开年，全球市场整体表现强劲。但本周五，投资者或将迎来首轮真正的考验——美国12 月非农就业报告即将发布，同时美国最高法院也可能就特朗普多数关税政策的合法性作出裁决。尽管特 朗普政府突然出手掌控委内瑞拉石油产业，且股市板块轮动导致领涨主线生变，但美股与美债在1月开 局阶段依旧保持平稳运行。"近期消息面频发，但市场整体表现却异常平静，这种状态多少有些反 常。"但这种平静局面或很快被打破。期权市场的动向也反映出投资者对波动的预期正在升温。 北京时间本周五21：30．投资者将迎来美国劳工部2026年首份非农就业报告，这份报告涵盖的是去年12 月的就业数据。无论数据表现好于预期还是逊于预期，对投资者而言都潜藏风险。 国际黄金价格在亚洲时段未能延续前一交易日自 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 最近市场整体上涨，时隔多年，重新回到3.9星。进入1月份，按照惯例，也更新下，2026年1 月初的螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板。 这个信号板有定量和定性两部分。 长图片后面，有详细的牛熊信号板相关数据意义的介绍。 2018.10 2012.12 2000 2012.1.6 2026.1.6 巴菲特指标 100% 84.60% 80% 50% 2026.1.6 2022.1.4 注：80%以下通常代表偏低，市场比较便宜；80%-100%代表正常水平，100%以上代 表偏高，市场比较贵了。 市净率百分位 一 大盘价值 大盘成长 100% 50% 53.71% 41.56% 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 － 小盘价值 一 小盘成长 100% M78.71% √61.78% 50% NEW YOU WANT AND THE WATER AND AND A 0% 2015.12 2018.1 2020.1 2022.1 2026.1.6 市净率百分位：指当前的市净率数据,处于它历史数据里百分之多少的位置。通常 所处的历史位置越低，估值越 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Core Insights - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. reported strong financial performance in Q1 2026, with notable achievements in earnings per share, revenue, and operational efficiency [1][2] Financial Performance - Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.99, surpassing the estimated $0.95 [2][6] - Revenue reached approximately $965.7 million, exceeding forecasts of $962.5 million [2][6] - Operating income rose to $76.2 million, with an adjusted figure of $81.2 million, indicating effective cost management [2][6] Profitability Metrics - Adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.99 from $0.86 in the prior year, reflecting robust profitability [3] - Net income attributable to MSC increased by 11.1% to $51.8 million [3] Valuation Ratios - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 22.16 suggests favorable market valuation [4] - Price-to-sales ratio of about 1.19 reflects revenue valuation relative to market capitalization [4] - Enterprise value to sales ratio of around 1.33 and enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio of approximately 19.40 provide insights into valuation [4] Financial Health - Debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.42 indicates a balanced approach to financing [5] - Current ratio of around 1.73 shows the ability to cover short-term liabilities with short-term assets [5]

2026年的第二个交易日，A股继续大幅上涨，并且创出了本轮牛市的新高点4083点。成交额方面，A股市场已经连续两个交易日出现了明显放量的情况，在 沪市站上4083点之际，沪深市场的单日成交额放大至2.8万亿元，A股市场呈现出明显的量价齐升走势，这是典型的多头行情。 1月6日，A股市场创造出两项新纪录，一项是股市收盘点位创出了逾十年的新高，并且有效站稳了4000点；另一项是沪指出现了13连阳的走势，打破了A股 市场近年来的连阳纪录。 A股有效突破了4000点，下一站会是2015年的新高点5178点吗？ 展望2026年，A股市场的增量流动性，或来自两融规模的持续增长和存款资金的投资转化。 从总市值规模分析，截至2025年底，A股总市值约为123万亿元人民币，按照当前的汇率计算，A股市场的总市值约为17.6万亿美元。 以两融余额规模为例，当前A股两融余额规模约为2.55万亿元人民币，继续处于历史高位水平。但是，按照当前A股市场的流通市值计算，2.55万亿的两融余 额只是占了股市流通市值的2.5%左右。然而，按照3%至4%的比例计算，A股两融余额仍然存在1万亿以上的增量空间。2026年A股两融余额的增长空间，仍 然值 ...

Add to all of these concerns the idea that tariffs could threaten to disrupt things even more, and yet the market has largely ignored these signals. Instead, it's focused on valuing stocks on the hopes that AI will deliver generational returns and that growth will accelerate. To be fair, the real question here isn't whether the market will eventually acknowledge this disconnect in reality, but when.It's here that most of the confusion starts, as many investors look at the S&P 500 and the 16% number and thin ...

全球股市在2025年实现连续第三年两位数涨幅，尽管期间经历了特朗普贸易政策引发的不确定性以及人工智能板块泡沫担忧。MSCI全球指数今年上涨超过 20%，表现超出多数分析师预期。 美国股市在年初遭遇重挫后实现强劲反弹，标普500指数全年涨幅接近16.5%。 DeepSeek在年初发布大语言模型，令硅谷震惊并导致科技股暴跌。4月特朗普 宣布大规模关税措施，再次引发股票、债券和美元的抛售。但强劲的企业盈利、美联储降息预期以及超预期的经济增长，很快促使投资者重返市场。 尽管美股表现强劲，中国、日本、英国和德国等市场今年均跑赢标普500指数，新兴市场股票指数同样表现优于美股。投资者在经历年初美股波动后寻求更多 元化的配置。 然而， 市场估值已远高于历史平均水平，分析师警告称这轮由科技巨头主导的涨势可能难以持续。 标普500的席勒周期调整市盈率接近40倍，仅次于2000年 代初互联网泡沫破裂前的水平。 巴克莱美国股票策略主管Venu Krishna表示："这是极其强劲的一年，强于我们的预期。尽管存在包括关税在内的政策不确定性，但总体而言美国经济和股市表 现出很强的韧性。" Nordea资产管理公司股票和固定收益首席投资官 ...

全球股市在2025年实现连续第三年两位数涨幅，尽管期间经历了特朗普贸易政策引发的不确定性以及人工智能板块泡沫担忧。MSCI全球指数今年 上涨超过20%，表现超出多数分析师预期。 美国股市在年初遭遇重挫后实现强劲反弹，标普500指数全年涨幅接近16.5%。DeepSeek在年初发布大语言模型，令硅谷震惊并导致科技股暴跌。 4月特朗普宣布大规模关税措施，再次引发股票、债券和美元的抛售。但强劲的企业盈利、美联储降息预期以及超预期的经济增长，很快促使投资 者重返市场。 尽管美股表现强劲，中国、日本、英国和德国等市场今年均跑赢标普500指数，新兴市场股票指数同样表现优于美股。投资者在经历年初美股波动 后寻求更多元化的配置。 在经历如此强劲的涨势后，市场情绪开始滋生谨慎。部分投资者与分析师对行情能否持续发出警告，指出本轮牛市呈现出显著的结构集中性与估 值偏离特征，涨势主要由硅谷少数科技巨头驱动，导致整体市场估值已大幅脱离长期历史均值，股指回报越来越依赖于头部个股的持续表现。 施罗德价值股票主管Simon Adler表示："当市场如此强劲时，存在自满的风险。我们现在进入2026年时，市场某些领域看起来估值非常非常充 分。大 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第425期直播回放】 有朋友问，近1年多， A股 港股 的表现如何，还在牛市吗？ 什么信号，代表牛市可能到尾声或者结束？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1230 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 近1年多，A股港股的涨幅排在全球前列 过去一年多，A股港股大幅上涨。 从2024年9月初，到2025年12月26日收盘： 可以看到， A股港股近一年多的涨幅，是排在全球前列的。 2. 近几个月有所波动，不过还是在牛市 • 美股全市场，上涨24.28%。 • 全球股票市场，上涨24.85%。 • 港股恒生指数全收益，上涨52.52% 。 • 中证全指全收益，上涨60.43% 。 之后有所波动，截至2025年12月26日，这轮回调幅度大约-6.47%。 暂时还不如2024年国庆、2025年1月、2025年4月这三次回调大。 所以，按照约定俗成的说法，A股目前仍然处在牛市之中。 3. 现在到了牛市中后 ...

雷军刚砸1亿港元增持小米表信心，副董事长林斌就宣布要套现140亿人民币——这俩创始人到底在唱哪出？是小米内部对未来看法分裂，还是资本操作背 后另有隐情？普通投资者该跟着慌吗？ 这两天，小米集团的一则公告把科技圈和财经圈都搅活了。12月28日晚间，港交所公告显示，小米联合创始人、副董事长林斌计划从2026年12月开始，分 四年减持公司股票，累计套现不超过20亿美元，按当前汇率算差不多140亿人民币，每年减持金额不超过5亿美元。而就在一个月前的11月24日，创始人雷 军刚自掏腰包1亿港元增持260万股小米股票，当时还带动股价第二天大涨。 先把公告里的关键信息拎清楚，林斌在公告里明确表态："对小米集团的业务前景充满信心并将长期服务于本集团"，减持所得款项主要用于成立投资基金 公司，投向新兴科技、体育等产业。这句话看着矛盾，却得结合他的身份和小米的发展阶段慢慢拆。 首先得明确一个背景，林斌并非普通高管，而是小米的核心创始人之一，且拥有美国国籍。 公开资料显示，1968年出生于广东广州的林斌，是典型的技术精英出身，被保送至中山大学电子系后，又赴美国德雷塞尔大学深造并获得计算机科学硕士 学位。职业生涯早期，他曾在微软任职 ...