以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 一、看懂市场"体温"：全A估值仪表盘 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 在过去的几个月里，沉寂多年之后的市场，迎来了结构性牛市，以芯片、AI、算力等为代表的硬科技领域实现了广泛上涨，很多指数的估值温度不 断上升。 今天，我们一起重新仔细回顾估值表的使用方式，更好地应对市场的不同周期。 对新手来说，可以把全市场温度理解成市场的"体温表"。温度高，说明市场热；温度低，说明市场冷。 当低于20度时，往往是我们定投的好时机；而当高于60度时，意味着市场逐步进入偏热，机会开始分化，需要提高警惕。 我们一起看最新一期的全市场估值温度... 1）全市场温度 代表了当下A股市场的温度高低，0度最低、100度最高， 当下为59.86度，中性偏热 。该指标采用代表全市场的沪深全A的估值，计算方式为： （指数市盈率百 ...

AZZ Inc. reported a 2% increase in total sales, reaching $417.3 million, with Metal Coatings sales up by 10.8%.Net income surged by 152.3% to $89.3 million, and adjusted net income increased by 13.8% to $46.9 million.The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is approximately 12.19, indicating the market's valuation of its earnings.AZZ Inc. (NYSE:AZZ) specializes in providing metal coating services and solutions for industrial markets, operating in two main segments: Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals. Desp ...

Core Insights - RPM International Inc. is a global leader in specialty coatings, sealants, and building materials, operating through various segments including industrial, consumer, and specialty products, with significant competition from companies like Sherwin-Williams and PPG Industries [1] Financial Performance - RPM is set to release its quarterly earnings on October 1, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings per share (EPS) to be $1.87, reflecting a 1.6% increase from the previous year, indicating stability in EPS estimates over the past 30 days [2][6] - The company's revenue is projected to reach approximately $2.05 billion, marking a 3.8% year-over-year increase, which is a positive indicator of operational strength [3][6] Market Valuation - RPM's price-to-sales ratio is 2.04, suggesting that investors are willing to pay $2.04 for every dollar of sales, reflecting confidence in the company's revenue-generating capabilities [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 21.64, indicating that investors are paying $21.64 for each dollar of earnings, while the enterprise value to sales ratio is 2.40 and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is 23.02, highlighting RPM's valuation in relation to its sales and cash flow [4] Financial Health - The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03 indicates a balanced approach to financing, utilizing both debt and equity, and a current ratio of 2.16 suggests a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities with its assets [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above the 3850-point mark [1][2] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with continuous inflow of funds into the equity market, supported by the gradual shift of household savings towards capital markets and increased foreign investment in A-shares [1][2] - The market is currently in a phase of rebalancing and expectation reconstruction, with a divergence between economic recovery and bullish sentiment [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday is anticipated to lead to a seasonal decline in market activity, but the orderly implementation of policies this year is expected to support performance post-holiday [2]

Joining us now with more on the market, Stephen Parker, JP Morgan uh private bank, co-head of global uh investment strategy. I I'll I guess I'll start with in a similar vein to with with Katie Stockton. She's um obviously looks at at technicals.You're more fundamentals. There's probably no one that that doesn't or hasn't heard that the market is fully valued. I think even uh Jay Powell intimated as much the other day also said that that doesn't necessarily mean that the market's ready to go down either beca ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market valuation appears high based on certain metrics, particularly the PE percentile, which indicates that the market is above historical averages, leading to concerns about potential overvaluation [3][5][6]. Valuation Analysis - The current PE of the CSI 300 index is 14.09, with a PE percentile of 82.4%, suggesting it is higher than 82% of historical data [5][6]. - The small-cap index, represented by the CSI 2000, has an alarming PE of 164, significantly higher than the CSI 300, indicating that some sectors are indeed overvalued [16][18]. - Despite the high PE percentile, the absolute valuation of the CSI 300 is not considered excessively high when compared to small-cap stocks [17][19]. Market Characteristics - The A-share market is characterized by prolonged periods of undervaluation and brief periods of overvaluation, making it essential to consider multiple valuation indicators rather than relying solely on the PE percentile [21][30]. - The PE percentile can be misleading; for instance, a PE of 13.26 only represents an 11.5% increase from a PE of 11.89, which is a relatively small change [25][29]. Alternative Valuation Metrics - The current earnings yield of the CSI 300 index is 7.09%, which remains attractive compared to low-risk investment yields that have fallen below 2% [31]. - The PB ratio for the CSI 300 is 1.47, with a PB percentile of 52.76%, indicating it is at a mid-level valuation [33]. Overall Market Sentiment - The current market valuation is perceived as neither cheap nor excessively expensive, suggesting a neutral stance where caution is advised but not to the extent of panic selling [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is described as the "calm before the storm," with uncertainty surrounding potential future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could impact market performance and earnings [1][3][20]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent dot plot suggests three potential rate cuts, while the market is pricing in two and a half, indicating a weaker economic outlook than previously communicated [2][3]. - Concerns about the labor market and unemployment are rising, with suggestions to focus on the unemployment rate rather than job creation as a more accurate economic indicator [5]. Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the Fed's rate cut has been mixed, with some viewing it as easing valuation pressures, particularly for high-profile stocks like the MAG 7, while others are using options to hedge against potential downturns [9][11]. - There has been a notable spike in put options, indicating that traders are preparing for downside risks despite the rate cut [10][11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider diversification across various asset classes, including equities and bonds, with a particular focus on sectors that may be undervalued or less favored [12][14]. - The bond market is highlighted as a potentially attractive area for investment, especially given the current economic conditions and the Fed's actions [18]. Market Sentiment - There is a sense of euphoria in the market following the Fed's announcement, with futures showing positive movement, but this sentiment may be short-lived as the next earnings cycle approaches [19][21].

Group 1 - Dogecoin (DOGE) has regained market attention as Bitcoin rises above $114,000, leading to a new wave of growth in the cryptocurrency market. DOGE reached $0.251, with a 24-hour increase of 4.2% and a weekly surge of 16.3% [2] - Factors driving this surge include the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in the coming weeks, with an inflation report showing stability in August and a 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which may boost the cryptocurrency market [2] - Cleancore holds over 500 million DOGE and plans to buy an additional 1 billion within 30 days, increasing market confidence despite ongoing debates about the future of a DOGE ETF [3] Group 2 - Bullish investors believe the current market atmosphere resembles that of 2021, where DOGE surged by 1500% from $0.04 to its peak, leading to significant profits for investors [5] - Conversely, bearish investors argue that current market valuations are too high, with DOGE's value not aligning with its actual utility, and caution against potential bubble risks in financing rates [5] - Market predictions suggest DOGE could rise to $0.321 by October 6, 2025, representing a potential increase of approximately 27.89%, although a pullback may follow [6] Group 3 - The current 30-day financing rate for DOGE is -0.68%, lower than Bitcoin, indicating cautious trading behavior. Open interest (OI) has reached $4.6 billion, a three-month high, with a $1 billion increase in one week, suggesting a surge in market positions [7] - Despite this, DOGE has not experienced excessive expansion, with an RSI below 70 and an NVT of 14, significantly lower than the peak levels of 25+, indicating that network activity still supports the price and reduces the risk of a long squeeze [7] Group 4 - Trading volume exceeded 1.1 billion during the breakout, approximately three times the average level, indicating significant institutional inflows ahead of the ETF launch. Momentum signals show a triangular flag breakout with higher lows and volume confirmation, suggesting that the late-session decline is more of an adjustment than a trend reversal [10] - Overall, DOGE is at a critical juncture, supported by institutional actions, macroeconomic benefits, and ETF expectations. If it can effectively hold above the key resistance level of $0.25, a new upward trend may commence [10] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates support levels for DOGE at $0.245-$0.246, with additional support at $0.260 during late-session pullbacks. Resistance is noted at $0.264, with future targets set at $0.29 and $0.50 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the equity market are attributed to profit-taking after significant gains and a cooling of speculative behavior among investors, leading to increased selling pressure [1] Market Performance - Since April 8, the total A-share market has risen over 30%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by more than 25% [1] - Historical data indicates that when major indices experience a rapid increase of over 30%, market corrections typically follow, making the current adjustment expected [1] Market Valuation - Current market valuations have risen but have not reached bubble levels [1] - The turnover rate in the A-share market has increased but has not surpassed the high point from October 8 of the previous year [1] Fund Flows - There is evidence of increased equity allocation through margin trading and "fixed income plus" products among residents [1] - Despite the market's rise, data from high-frequency ETFs and public fund monthly reports indicate that investors continue to redeem equity funds, suggesting that the funding environment is not overly exuberant [1] Investment Strategy - Given the structural market conditions and increased volatility, there is a need for stronger stock selection and directional judgment capabilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the AI Fund Huatai Fuhua Dividend Smart Selection Mixed Fund A (021515) has shown a profit of 781,800 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 7.52% [3] Group 1: Fund Performance - The fund's profit for the first half of 2025 was 78.18 million yuan, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0763 yuan [3] - As of September 2, the fund's unit net value was 1.132 yuan, and the fund size was 11.4554 million yuan [3][34] - The fund's net value growth rate over the past three months was 7.61%, ranking 557 out of 615 comparable funds, while the six-month growth rate was 14.23%, ranking 407 out of 615 [6] Group 2: Market Outlook - The fund management anticipates increased economic pressure in the second half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies and declining export effects, alongside real estate investment drag [3] - Despite the challenges, factors such as relatively ample liquidity, potential earnings growth for listed companies, and policy support are expected to positively impact the market [3] Group 3: Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was approximately 3.56 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 25.34 times [11] - The weighted average price-to-book (P/B) ratio was about 0.33 times, compared to the industry average of 2.34 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales (P/S) ratio was approximately 0.8 times, against an industry average of 2.09 times [11] Group 4: Growth Metrics - For the first half of 2025, the weighted revenue growth rate of the stocks held by the fund was 0.02%, and the weighted net profit growth rate was 0.05% [20] - The weighted annualized return on equity was 0.09% [20] Group 5: Fund Composition and Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fund had a total of 34 holders, with institutional investors holding 95.02% of the shares and individual investors holding 4.98% [37] - The fund's top holdings included Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, and Gree Electric Appliances [42]