城投债投资框架之四 短期定价的关键变量与高频数据 2025 年 08 月 21 日 ➢ 影响城投债定价策略的短期因素：从短期视角（期限 0-1 年）来看，城投平 台层级、融资能力、市场情绪、投资主体是主要考量因素。还有一些短期变量， 也会在较短时间内影响利率债与城投债的估值波动。例如，每年全国"两会"正 式公布的"赤字率"及"广义财政赤字"，当年的新增地方一般债、新增地方专 项债与超长期特别国债情况，都需要特别重视，其对城投平台所在区域的影响可 能会比较大。尤其是这些国债与地方债分配给各省市区县的额度，以及是否能够 用于置换地方各种类型债务，都可能会在短期影响城投债的定价策略。 ➢ 特定时间召开的会议或影响短期估值定价：每个月的国务院常务会议、每个 季度召开的中央政治局会议，特定时间召开的全国"两会"、党中央"全体会议"、 地方"两会"与中央经济工作会议，以及不定期召开的中央城市工作会议、中央 金融工作会议等，也可能会出台新的政策或方案，或对各省市区县的当前经济发 展情况与财政收入产生"边际变化影响"，从而最终影响地方政府在未来的工作 内容与行为方式，也需要高度重视。 ➢ 行政层级影响短期估值定价："城投平台 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "missing out" on market gains, emphasizing that for ordinary investors, missing out is not a risk, while losing money is the real concern [2][10]. Group 1: Fund Managers' Perspective - For fund managers, missing out on market gains poses a significant risk, as it can lead to underperformance compared to the market, resulting in investor dissatisfaction and a substantial decrease in fund size [4][6]. - A decline in fund size directly impacts the management fees collected by fund companies, leading to reduced revenue [5]. - To mitigate this risk, many fund managers opt to maintain a high stock allocation consistently, aiming for excess returns through careful stock selection [7][8]. Group 2: Ordinary Investors' Perspective - Ordinary investors face different circumstances; they do not receive rewards for taking on greater risks, and aggressive investment strategies do not guarantee higher returns [11][14]. - Ordinary investors often need to liquidate assets for cash flow to meet living expenses, which can be problematic during market downturns [15][16]. - Unlike fund managers, who focus on relative performance against other funds, ordinary investors should prioritize absolute returns to ensure each investment is profitable and does not negatively impact their purchasing power [20][17]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article emphasizes the importance of investing during undervalued market phases to minimize potential losses [21][23]. - It highlights that purchasing high-quality assets at lower valuations can lead to higher long-term returns while reducing risk [22][23]. - As of August 12, 2025, the market is still considered relatively cheap, presenting an opportunity for investors to accumulate quality assets [26].

内部人士抛售背后的逻辑在于他们对当前市场估值的担忧。作为最了解自家公司经营状况的群体，内部 人士的集体行为往往反映出他们对股价是否合理的真实看法。 这一异常表现与市场的乐观情绪形成鲜明对比，凸显了最了解公司内情的高管们对当前估值的担忧。 这一现象配合高估值、经济走弱和技术面超买等因素，为投资者敲响了警钟。不过分析师提醒，内部人 士交易虽具参考价值，但历史上并非可靠的市场时机指标。 Roundhill Investments首席执行官Dave Mazza表示： 企业高管现在的行为很像机构投资者：谨慎、保守，对估值敏感。最了解公司的人正在告诉 你，大部分利好消息已经被市场消化。 内部人士抛售创多年新低，估值担忧驱动谨慎情绪 美股在6月和7月持续走高之际，公司内部人士却对自家股票日趋谨慎。 7月份标普500公司中仅有不到三分之一出现内部人士增持，这一比例创下2018年以来的最低纪录。与此 同时，内部人士的买卖比例大幅下滑，目前仅为长期平均水平的约一半。 这种集体抛售行为在市场创出新高的背景下显得格外引人注目。当普通投资者对股市前景保持乐观时， 那些拥有第一手公司信息的高管们却选择了相反的操作。 周五，据媒体报道，数 ...

其次是资金流向不同。7月以来，两融资金主要流向的行业是医药生物、电子、电力设备等。主要流向 的个股包括贵州茅台、宁德时代、胜宏科技、新易盛、比亚迪、药明康德等。相比之下，2014年至2015 年期间，融资资金更偏向于金融板块。 最后是市场估值不同。以上证指数的滚动市盈率为例，当前的市盈率在15倍至16倍，而2015年5月时市 盈率在19倍至20倍，高峰时期超过23倍。拉长时间来看，2015年年初到2015年年中，市盈率从15倍上升 到23倍。而今年只是从14倍上升到16倍。市场估值并没有快速提升。 此2万亿元与彼2万亿元不可同日而语。 截至8月5日，A股两融余额已经达到了20002.59亿元，再次突破2万亿元。上轮行情两融余额首次突破2 万亿元，还要追溯到2015年5月20日，当时正值一轮大牛市。同样是2万亿元，这次有何不同？ 首先是占比不同。一方面，两融余额占A股流通市值的比重不同。8月5日，两融余额占A股流通市值的 比重为2.31%，明显低于2015年5月20日的4.16%，表明当前两融余额的增长与市场整体市值的增长相匹 配。 另一方面，融资买入额占A股成交额的比重不同。8月5日这一比重是10.23%，2 ...

此2万亿元与彼2万亿元不可同日而语。 截至8月5日，A股两融余额已经达到了20002.59亿元，再次突破2万亿元。上轮行情两融余额首次突破2万亿 元，还要追溯到2015年5月20日，当时正值一轮大牛市。同样是2万亿元，这次有何不同？ 此外，刚刚召开的证监会系统年中工作会议提出，要全力巩固市场回稳向好态势。进一步健全稳市机制，增强 市场监测监管和风险应对的有效性、前瞻性，加强预期引导。当前，市场监管体系更加完善，防风险的意识与 能力也显著增强。我们更有理由相信，市场回稳向好态势将会持续得到巩固。 责编：李丹 校对：苏焕文 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 首先是占比不同。一方面，两融余额占A股流通市值的比重不同。8月5日，两融余额占A股流通市值的比重为 2.31%，明显低于2015年5月20日的4.16%，表明当前两融余额的增长与市场整体市值的增长相匹配。 另一方面，融资买入额占A股成交额的比重不同。8月5日这一比重是10.23%，2015年时是1 ...

Group 1 - As of August 5, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 2,002.59 billion yuan, surpassing 2 trillion yuan again, which is a significant milestone compared to the previous peak in May 2015 during a bull market [1] - The proportion of margin trading balance to the A-share circulating market value is currently 2.31%, significantly lower than the 4.16% recorded on May 20, 2015, indicating that the growth of margin trading balance is aligned with the overall market value growth [1] - The financing buy-in amount accounted for 10.23% of A-share transaction volume on August 5, compared to 14% in 2015, suggesting that while leveraged trading is active, it has not reached excessive speculation levels [1] Group 2 - The current rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is between 15 and 16, whereas it was between 19 and 20 in May 2015, with peaks exceeding 23, indicating that market valuations have not rapidly increased [2] - The recent funds from margin trading have primarily flowed into sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment, with key stocks including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and BYD, contrasting with the financial sector focus during the 2014-2015 period [1] - The recent meeting of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to consolidate the market's recovery and improve market monitoring and risk response capabilities, suggesting a more robust regulatory environment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current A-share margin financing balance has reached 2 trillion yuan, but the market environment and conditions differ significantly from the previous peak in 2015 [1][2] - The margin financing balance as a percentage of A-share circulating market value is 2.31%, which is lower than the 4.16% recorded in May 2015, indicating a more balanced growth relative to the overall market [1] - The proportion of financing purchases to A-share transaction volume is 10.23%, compared to 14% in 2015, suggesting that while leveraged trading is active, it has not reached excessive speculation levels [1] Group 2 - The current rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index is between 15 and 16, lower than the 19 to 20 range in May 2015, indicating that market valuations have not rapidly increased [2] - The recent funding flow has primarily targeted sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and power equipment, with key stocks including Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and BYD, contrasting with the financial sector focus seen in 2014-2015 [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has emphasized the need to consolidate the market's recovery and improve market monitoring and risk response capabilities, suggesting a more robust regulatory environment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Screw Nail Stock Market Bull and Bear Signal Board," which helps investors understand market valuation and potential investment opportunities through quantitative and qualitative indicators [1][5]. Group 1: Quantitative Indicators - The star rating system indicates market valuation, with 4-5 stars suggesting undervaluation and 80% below indicating a cheap market [3][7]. - The Buffett Indicator, which compares total market capitalization to GDP, shows that below 80% indicates a low valuation area [27]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile indicates the market's valuation level, with lower percentiles suggesting cheaper valuations [9][29]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio is currently at 2.93, indicating a favorable investment opportunity when above 2 [34][33]. Group 2: Qualitative Indicators - The financing balance and trading volume reflect market activity, with lower values indicating a cooler market [12][37]. - The number of new stock issuances and their break rate are higher in bear markets, with a significant decrease in IPOs noted recently [42][15]. - The relationship between the CSI All Share Total Return Index and M2 indicates market liquidity, with lower values suggesting a more depressed market [44][17]. - The scale of old funds has decreased significantly, indicating a bearish market sentiment, with many funds down by 50-60% from their peak [48][18]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The article notes two significant market lows during the current bear market, both around a star rating of 5.9, followed by brief rebounds [63][26]. - As of August 5, 2025, the market remains around a 4.7 star rating, suggesting it is still relatively cheap [64]. - Recent market conditions have been characterized by a predominance of positive news, despite overall low sentiment [58][66].

Core Insights - Corporate executives are showing a cautious stance towards their own companies' stocks, contrasting with the general bullish sentiment in the market as the S&P 500 index reached multiple record highs in July [2][4] - The number of insider purchases in July was the lowest since 2018, with only 151 executives buying shares, indicating a significant drop in buying activity compared to previous months [2] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio is nearing 23 times, significantly above the ten-year average of approximately 18 times, suggesting executives may be concerned about high valuations [2] Market Sentiment - There is a divergence in market sentiment, as corporate executives exhibit a lack of enthusiasm for their own stocks, which contrasts sharply with the overall risk appetite observed on Wall Street [4] - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in the labor market, with employment growth decelerating and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, adding to the cautious outlook [3] Corporate Actions - Corporate buyback activities have also slowed, with the latest data showing a decline below typical seasonal levels for four consecutive weeks as of July 25 [5] - The hesitation in buybacks suggests that companies are prioritizing balance sheet protection over market confidence, reflecting concerns about high valuations and interest rates [5] - Analysts believe that corporate buyback data may serve as a more significant sentiment indicator than insider selling, as executives are signaling that most positive news has already been priced into the market [5]

Group 1 - In July, U.S. retail investors significantly entered the stock market, pushing the S&P 500 index to set multiple closing records, while corporate executives exhibited a contrasting trend by reducing their stock purchases to the lowest level since at least 2018 [1] - The buying-to-selling ratio of corporate insiders reached its lowest level in a year, indicating a cautious stance among executives despite a slowdown in selling activity [1][2] - The S&P 500 index's forward P/E ratio rose to nearly 23 times, significantly above the 10-year average of about 18 times, suggesting concerns over market valuations among corporate executives [2][3] Group 2 - Retail investors have become the primary driving force behind the recent market rally, with their participation in S&P 500 index flows reaching 12.63%, the highest since February [2] - Corporate buyback activities have also slowed, with data indicating that buybacks have been below typical seasonal levels for four consecutive weeks, reflecting a shift in corporate sentiment towards protecting balance sheets rather than boosting market confidence [5][6] - The recent slowdown in the U.S. labor market and rising inflation indicators have contributed to a more cautious outlook among corporate executives, as evidenced by a significant downward revision in job growth figures [3][6]