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可转债周报20260131:转债市场回调后,次新转债会更抗跌吗?-20260204
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-04 10:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Historically, newly - issued convertible bonds showed resilience due to the "no - forced redemption" protection. However, their current valuations have significantly increased, and the valuation gap between newly - issued bonds and the entire market has widened, possibly reflecting the premium pursuit of certainty by funds under the high - valuation background [2][4]. - During the week, the A - share market oscillated weakly, with large - cap stocks outperforming. Cyclical sectors such as petroleum and non - ferrous metals led the gains, and trading activity increased [2][4]. - The convertible bond market weakened overall. Large - cap bonds were relatively resistant to decline, while small and medium - cap bonds were weaker. The average daily trading volume decreased. Valuations were compressed overall, implied volatility and the median price declined but remained at high levels, and market sentiment cooled marginally [2][4]. - Most individual bonds declined. The top - performing bonds had characteristics of low balance and high conversion premium rates [2][4]. - The issuance speed in the primary market accelerated, and the reserve was sufficient. In terms of terms, the willingness to lower the conversion price was weak, and the probability of no forced redemption increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the allocation opportunities of newly - issued and newly - listed bonds after the correction [2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Theme Weekly Review - In the correction at the end of August 2025, newly - issued convertible bonds showed certain resistance to decline. They usually enjoy better liquidity and the "no - forced redemption" mechanism due to not entering the conversion period, resulting in relatively more stable median market prices and more resilient valuations compared to the whole market [12]. - At the end of January 2026, the valuations of newly - issued convertible bonds were generally higher than those in August 2025. The expansion of the valuation gap was mainly due to the high return requirements of some funds and the preference for varieties with stronger return certainty under the consensus of "no - forced redemption" [14]. - During the week from January 25th to January 31st, 2026, the equity market weakened as a whole, with the non - ferrous metal sector performing well. The gold and military - related sub - sectors within the non - ferrous metal and aerospace sectors showed different performances [19]. Market Weekly Tracking Main Indexes Differentiated, Science - Innovation and Mid - Cap Stocks Performed Strongly - During the week, the main A - share indexes oscillated weakly. The Shenzhen Component Index performed relatively weakly, and the ChiNext Index rebounded after a decline but still closed down. In terms of style, large - cap indexes were relatively dominant, while small and medium - cap and science - innovation indexes were weaker [21]. - In terms of funds, the net outflow of main funds in the market expanded during the week, and the average daily trading volume increased [22]. - Cyclical sectors in the A - share market were relatively strong during the week. Petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, and coal sectors led the gains, while commerce and retail, automotive, and national defense and military industries were weaker [25]. - In terms of trading volume, trading was mainly concentrated in the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors. The average daily trading volume of the non - ferrous metal sector increased by more than 70% compared to the previous week [27]. - The congestion degree of market sectors still differed significantly. The congestion degree of sectors such as petroleum and petrochemicals, banks, and media increased, while that of sectors such as commerce and retail, public utilities, and social services decreased [30]. Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Overall, Small - Cap Indexes Performed Strongly - During the week, the convertible bond market weakened as a whole. The CSI Convertible Bond Index oscillated weakly, with large - cap convertible bond indexes performing relatively strongly and small and medium - cap convertible bond indexes performing weaker. The trading volume decreased slightly, but the average daily trading volume still exceeded 9 billion [33]. - Valuations in the convertible bond market were compressed overall when divided by parity and market price intervals. Only the conversion premium rates in some intervals increased, while those in most intervals decreased significantly [36]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance oscillated weakly during the week, remaining at a historical high. The median market price of convertible bonds also oscillated weakly, still higher than the high point in August 2025 [39]. - Convertible bonds in cyclical sectors showed more flexibility. Coal, petroleum and petrochemicals and other cyclical sectors led the gains. Trading volume was mainly concentrated in the basic chemicals, power equipment, and electronics sectors, with the combined trading volume of these three sectors accounting for more than 35% [43]. - Most individual convertible bonds weakened during the week. Only 109 convertible bonds had an increase in the range of more than or equal to 0, accounting for 28.2% of the total number of outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top - performing and bottom - performing convertible bonds in the conversion period had different characteristics, and the top - performing bonds generally had low bond balances and some had high conversion premium rates [45]. Convertible Bond Issuance and Terms Tracking Primary Market Pre - issuance Situation During the Week - Two convertible bonds, Naipu Zhuan 02 and Lianrui Convertible Bond, were listed during the week [49]. - A total of 16 listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans in the primary market during the week, with different progress stages. The total scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage reached 8.511 billion yuan [50][51]. Summary of Lowering - related Announcements During the Week - Four convertible bonds issued announcements indicating that they were expected to trigger a lowering of the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.2 [56][59]. - Five convertible bonds issued announcements of not lowering the conversion price during the week, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 2.6 [58][59]. - One convertible bond issued an announcement proposing to lower the conversion price during the week, with a PB of the underlying stock of 4.3 [59]. Summary of Redemption - related Announcements During the Week - Fourteen convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption during the week [61][64]. - Two convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed early during the week [62][64]. - One convertible bond announced early redemption during the week [60][63].