从政府债融资的角度看，上半年财政明显前置。1-6月政府债净融资规模达到7.8万亿，同比多增4.3万亿，主要原因是今年特殊再融资债和用于补充商业银 行资本的特别国债都集中在上半年发行。预计下半年政府债净融资规模5.4万亿，较去年同期少增2.4万亿。 从财政收支的角度看，上半年财政的前置主要靠中央财政发力，地方财政支出进度仍然偏慢，6月以来专项债加速用于化债清欠，用于项目建设的比例持 续压缩。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 但从支出的角度看，上半年财政的前置主要靠中央财政发力，地方财政支出进度仍然偏慢。上半年全国前两本账收入同比-0.6%，低于年初预算0.2%的增 速，前两本账支出同比增长8.9%，略低于年初预算的9.3%。其中，中央财政前两本账收入和支出同比增速分别为-2.5%、37%，均高于年初预算增速，但 地方一本账和二本账的收支增速均低于年初预算。 财政支出的加速并未体现在基建投资的增长。6月广义财政支出同比增速达到17.6%，较5月增加13.6个百分点。但6月全口径基建投资同比5.3%，较上月回 落3.9个百分点，不含电力基建投资同比增速为2%，较上月下降3.1个百分点。 二者出现背离的原因是特别国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal situation in China for the first half of the year, highlighting the reliance on central government financing while local government spending remains slow. It notes a significant increase in government bond financing and a shift in the use of special bonds towards debt repayment rather than project construction [2][4][6]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 7.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to special refinancing bonds and bonds for supplementing commercial bank capital being issued in this period [4]. - National fiscal revenue for the first half decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 8.9%, slightly below the initial budget target of 9.3% [6]. - Central government revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.5% and 37% respectively, both exceeding initial budget expectations, while local government revenue and expenditure growth rates fell short of targets [6][7]. Infrastructure Investment - Despite a 17.6% year-on-year increase in broad fiscal expenditure in June, infrastructure investment growth was only 5.3%, indicating a disconnect between fiscal spending and infrastructure development [7][10]. - The increase in fiscal expenditure was largely driven by one-time capital injections into commercial banks, which inflated June's expenditure figures [10]. Policy Signals - The article indicates a trend towards prioritizing social welfare spending, particularly in education, social security, and healthcare, with a 6.4% year-on-year increase in these areas, outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth [10][12]. - Recent policy measures include pension increases, subsidies for elderly care, and initiatives for free preschool education, reflecting a focus on supporting vulnerable populations [12]. Special Bonds Usage - The issuance of special bonds accelerated significantly in June and July, with 63.1% of the annual target achieved by mid-year, compared to 44.4% in the previous year [13]. - The allocation of special bonds has shifted, with a growing proportion being used for debt repayment rather than project construction, raising concerns about future infrastructure funding [14][19]. - The article notes that the use of special bonds is now subject to a "negative list" management approach, expanding the potential applications of these funds [19].