丙烯日报 | 2025-12-26 供应端压力增加，限制盘面反弹高度 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5772元/吨（+14），丙烯华东现货价5850元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5705元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差78元/吨（-14），丙烯华北基差-260元/吨（-75）。丙烯开工率75%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR202美元/吨（+2），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR36美元/吨（-5），进口利润-388元/吨（+7），厂内库存46010吨（-550）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-0.20%），生产利润25元/吨（+0）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（-2%），生产利润372 元/吨（+230）；正丁醇开工率80%（+2%），生产利润451元/吨（+0）；辛醇开工率85%（+3%），生产利润670元/吨 （+50）；丙烯酸开工率80%（+0%），生产利润372元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+0%），生产利润-388元/吨（-36）； 酚酮开工率79%（+3%），生产利润-902元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端，丙烯产量整体延续高位，东北丙烯外卖量流向山东主力区域 ...

消息面 供应方面，本周(20251212-20251218)中国丙烯产量122.71万吨，较上周增加0.06万吨(上周产量122.65万吨)，涨幅0.05%。需求端，周内丙烯下游工 厂开工率涨跌互现。正丁醇开工率涨幅最大，主要因为吉林石化、齐鲁石化（600002）、华南某厂及浙江卫星装置重启恢复生产，山东鲁西装置 低负荷运行；酚酮开工率下滑幅度最大，主要因为浙江石化二期及扬州实友酚酮装置停车覆盖整个周期，台化兴业(宁波)酚酮装置周初恢复重 启，对酚酮产量拉动不及停车装置带来的损失量。目前丙烯供需相对平衡，期货维持震荡。短期关注5600支撑，5800压力位。 国投安信期货： 丙烯部分一体化企业丙烯外放情况仍存，加之局部前期复工企业丙烯商品量计划外放，市场整体供应相对充裕。生产企业库存压力可控，稳市意 愿或相对明显。 机构观点 瑞达期货： 12月23日，东营华联石油化工厂有限公司丙烯最新报价下调，出厂自提价下调100元/吨至5753元/吨，产能12万吨/年丙烯装置运行平稳。 12月22日，丙烯前20名期货公司(全月份合约加总)多单持仓3.18万手，空单持仓3.09万手，多空比1.03。净持仓为913手，相较上日增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand situation remains loose, and the market rebound is weak. The overall start - up of propylene has slightly increased, and the start - up of some downstream products has recovered, but downstream resistance to high - priced raw materials exists. The cost side has uncertainties, and the rebound space of the market is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][21] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [40][41][48] V. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] Core View of the Report - The propylene market is under pressure with the spot price weakening. The supply - demand fundamentals remain loose, and the cost - side support is limited. The demand side is difficult to improve significantly due to postponed new production and the approaching off - season of terminal demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves data such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [5][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It covers data on the differences between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, CFR in Japan and CFR in China, CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [30][32] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] V. Propylene Inventory - It involves data on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of device maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - level reverse spread opportunity; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream device restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand drive the recent weak operation of propylene spot, and the futures market also fluctuates at a low level. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua's PDH device, the expected restart of Qingdao Jinneng, and the release of new capacity from Yulong increase the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stocking provides short - term support, but the stocking demand is poor due to cost pressure, with mainly low - price rigid demand purchases. In terms of cost, geopolitical tensions and the firmness of the external propane price support the cost side of propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and market prices in East China and Shandong [1][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [1][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; for cross - period, after maintenance returns, focus on PL01 - 02 short - spread trading opportunities at high levels; no recommendation for cross - variety [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of propylene remains relatively large due to the restart of upstream devices and the increase in new production capacity. The demand is supported at the bottom in the short term but is still restricted by cost pressure. The cost side has support due to geopolitical tensions and the strengthening of international oil prices and external propane prices [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong market prices [6][8][10] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It shows data on the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][25][30] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report includes data on the price differences between South Korea's FOB, Japan's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, as well as propylene import profit [34][38] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Data on the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone are presented [41][43][46][55][57][60][62] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - It shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene market is generally expected to be loose, with downstream product profits being poor overall. The trading strategy suggests a sideways consolidation for single - sided trading, and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options trading [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Propane's external market is strong. As the market turns to the peak season and the temperature drops in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price. In terms of supply, several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise, increasing the market supply [6] Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways consolidation; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see; Options: Wait - and - see [7] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking This Week's Market Review - Propylene futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the main 2601 contract closed at 6388 yuan/ton (-36%/-0.56%) in the day session. The mainstream price in the Shandong propylene market was 6580 - 6670 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week. Propane was relatively strong, with the East China frozen cargo arrival price at 598 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The Far East propylene CFR China was at 795 - 800 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week [14] Propane Support and Market Trend - Propane's import arrival price decreased this week. However, the external market is strong. With the market turning to the peak season and the temperature drop in some areas, the rigid demand for combustion increases. The operating rate of domestic PDH plants may rise in the future, and the demand is expected to be strong, supporting the propane price [15] Propylene Operating Rate - As of Thursday, the overall operating rate of domestic propylene plants was 77.98%, up 1.86% week - on - week. Several plants restarted this week, and more are expected to restart in late September. With fewer new maintenance plants in September, the propylene operating rate is expected to rise [18] Propylene Imports - Propylene import sources mainly flow to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, followed by Fujian and Shanghai. After April, due to Sino - US tariffs, some downstream PDH plants were unstable. Downstream plants purchased low - priced foreign goods. The propylene import volume increased significantly from May to July, and South Korea is the largest source of propylene imports, accounting for 67.67% [21] Propylene Production Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the text, but only presented in the form of charts Propylene Downstream Industry Operating Conditions - Most propylene downstream product prices fell this week. Products such as propylene oxide, n - butanol, and acrylic acid had relatively obvious price drops. Downstream product costs were under pressure, and the acceptance of propylene prices gradually decreased. Most downstream product profits were poor, remaining below the break - even line. Octanol products are currently profitable, and acrylic acid and butanol have periodic profitability, while most other products have long - term profits below the break - even line [40] Propylene - Related Spreads - Presented in the form of charts, no detailed text analysis provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; supply-side device maintenance and restart changes frequently, combined with new device production capacity release, supply may still be relatively loose; downstream demand overall start-up recovery supports propylene prices in the short term [3] - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None 2. Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking has the expectation of capacity reduction, and the propylene futures price rebounds under the boost of macro sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total capacity, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of the total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2] - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the main PDH devices of Shandong Zhenhua and Jinneng are under maintenance, and the PDH devices of Tianhong and Xintai are restarted, and the PDH start-up rate decreases month-on-month; later, Wanhua Penglai PDH has the expectation of shutdown, and Jilin Petrochemical's new capacity is expected to be released, and the supply may still be relatively loose. Pay attention to the device maintenance situation after late August. The downstream start-up rate has rebounded overall except for acrylic acid. Among them, the start-up rate of octanol has rebounded significantly, the start-up rate of PP has increased slightly, and the start-up rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly. Later, the PP device of Jingbo and the acrylic acid device of Hongxin have the expectation of recovery. The short-term demand is supported, but the sustainability is questionable. Pay attention to the downstream stocking demand as the peak season approaches [2] - On the cost side, the crude oil price rebounds and fluctuates. Pay attention to macro trends such as geopolitical situations and the implementation of South Korea's cracking device capacity reduction policy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures include South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder start-up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start-up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry has an expectation of capacity reduction in naphtha cracking, and the propylene futures price rebounded under the boost of macro - sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of total imports, so South Korea's capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2]. - From the supply - demand fundamentals, the maintenance of major PDH units and PO units has an impact on the supply. After the positive effect of maintenance weakens, the price drops from a high level, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm increases. With the restart of some PDH units and the release of new capacity, the supply is still relatively loose. The downstream start - up rates show a mixed trend, and the short - term demand support is limited. The cost support has recovered with the rebound of crude oil prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures like the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It is related to figures such as the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It covers figures of production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Downstream demand support for propylene is limited, and propylene continues to fluctuate weakly. Shandong Zhenhua's main PDH unit and Xintai unit are under maintenance, briefly supporting a slight increase in Shandong spot prices. However, Wanhua's PO maintenance increases propylene supply in Yantai, and downstream resistance to high prices weakens the positive impact of maintenance, causing prices to fall from highs. In the future, Tianhong and Xintai's PDH units are expected to restart, and the new capacity of Jingbo's 280,000 - ton/year K - COT unit will be released, resulting in a relatively loose supply. Downstream start - up shows a mixed trend, with overall changes being small. Short - term demand support is limited, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand as the peak season approaches. The continuous weakening of crude oil on the cost side provides negative cost support [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures cover propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization [17][22][31] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][36] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Figures are about PP powder production profit, PP powder start - up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start - up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization [42][44][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69]