Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the propylene market cooled yesterday, but the main theme of geopolitical concerns over raw material supply and intensified supply - side contraction expectations continue to support olefin prices [2] - Currently, the supply of raw material propane is tight, PDH device profits are deeply in the red, and domestic PDH devices are undergoing concentrated maintenance. The supply of propylene is expected to tighten again. On the demand side, downstream buyers mainly conduct rigid restocking at low prices, and the restocking sentiment is becoming more cautious. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and there is still support for prices before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis data includes the closing price of the propylene main contract at 8410 yuan/ton (-140), the East China spot price of propylene at 8240 yuan/ton (-110), the North China spot price at 8025 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis at -170 yuan/ton (+30), and the Shandong basis at -385 yuan/ton (+140) [1] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - Propylene capacity utilization is 71% (-2%). The profit of PDH production is in a deep loss, and the PDH capacity utilization is expected to decline further due to concentrated maintenance and some devices reducing their loads [1][2] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 31% (+3.98%), with a production profit of -75 yuan/ton (-300); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 77% (-3%), with a production profit of 52 yuan/ton (+270); n - butanol capacity utilization is 85% (-2%), with a production profit of 1013 yuan/ton (-125); octanol capacity utilization is 91% (-4%), with a production profit of 514 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 78% (-2%), with a production profit of 4900 yuan/ton (+327); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), with a production profit of 41 yuan/ton (-55); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 87% (-2%), with a production profit of -192 yuan/ton (-872) [1] 4. Propylene Inventory - The propylene factory inventory is 44260 tons (-380) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has not eased, and the supply of raw materials such as crude oil, methanol, and propane is uncertain. Domestic olefin enterprises may reduce their production, and the cost of propylene has increased significantly, which continues to boost the price. - Against the background of deepening losses in PDH profits, the peak of PDH maintenance may continue, and the reduction in supply will support the price. - After the holiday, the downstream start - up gradually recovers, the downstream buying is active, and the spot price has risen significantly. The new production capacity of butanol - octanol and acrylic acid is expected to be put into production, which may drive some demand growth, but the demand follow - up under the profit pressure of other downstream industries still needs to be observed. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 7085 yuan/ton (-3), the spot price in East China is 7350 yuan/ton (+350), and in North China is 7370 yuan/ton (+355). The basis in East China is 265 yuan/ton (+353), and in Shandong is 285 yuan/ton (+358). The operating rate is 73% (+1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 114 US dollars/ton (-29), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 119 US dollars/ton (-25), the import profit is - 355 yuan/ton (+231), and the factory inventory is 44640 tons (-330). [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 27% (+3.67%), and the production profit is - 120 yuan/ton (-175); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+0%), and the production profit is - 580 yuan/ton (-25); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (+1%), and the production profit is 629 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of octanol is 95% (-2%), and the production profit is - 14 yuan/ton (-91); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (-1%), and the production profit is 1132 yuan/ton (+302); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (-1%), and the production profit is - 1536 yuan/ton (-220); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+0%), and the production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (+51). [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply side**: The conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of raw materials, and domestic olefin enterprises may reduce production. The loss of PDH profits has deepened, and the peak of PDH maintenance may continue. Some PDH devices are under maintenance or have maintenance plans, which will lead to a reduction in supply and support the price. [2] - **Demand side**: After the holiday, the downstream start - up gradually recovers, the downstream buying is active, and the spot price has risen significantly. The profit of butanol - octanol is still good, and the willingness to replenish inventory after the holiday may be strong. The new production capacity of butanol - octanol and acrylic acid is expected to be put into production, which may drive some demand growth, but the demand follow - up under the profit pressure of other downstream industries still needs to be observed. [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In February, CP prices rose month - on - month, and the cost side had strong support. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of propylene remained tight, with strong cost - side support. The market sentiment in the chemical sector was warming up, and the futures market continued its strong trend. It was recommended to cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract was 6317 yuan/ton (+36), the spot price in East China was 6540 yuan/ton (-10), and in North China was 6400 yuan/ton (+0). The East China basis was 223 yuan/ton (-46), and the Shandong basis was 83 yuan/ton (-36). The operating rate was 70% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR was 241 US dollars/ton (-16), and the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR was 95 US dollars/ton (+7). The import profit was - 308 yuan/ton (+75), and the in - plant inventory was 42,790 tons (+3,810) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The PP powder operating rate was 32% (+1.29%), with a production profit of - 200 yuan/ton (+20); the propylene oxide operating rate was 73% (+0%), with a production profit of - 375 yuan/ton (+0); the n - butanol operating rate was 86% (-1%), with a production profit of 1,070 yuan/ton (+30); the octanol operating rate was 91% (-5%), with a production profit of 1,270 yuan/ton (+150); the acrylic acid operating rate was 84% (+3%), with a production profit of 150 yuan/ton (+0); the acrylonitrile operating rate was 69% (-6%), with a production profit of - 954 yuan/ton (+71); the phenol - acetone operating rate was 88% (+3%), with a production profit of - 781 yuan/ton (+137) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply**: PDH device shutdown news was gradually realized. Multiple PDH devices were under maintenance or restarted, resulting in a significant decline in the domestic PDH operating rate and a tight short - term supply in the propylene spot market [2] - **Demand**: Downstream rigid demand support continued, but after the propylene price rose to a high level, downstream costs were significantly pressured, and demand follow - up might be limited. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed changes, with different impacts on propylene demand [2] - **Cost**: Geopolitical disturbances between the US and Iran strengthened, causing international oil prices to rise significantly. Propane prices remained strong. Saudi Aramco's February CP for propane was announced at 545 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 US dollars/ton, strengthening the short - term cost - side support for propylene [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously go long on a single - side basis for hedging. The supply - demand structure was still tight, which supported prices. Geopolitical disturbances led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, and the external propane market was strong. Due to profit pressure, PDH device maintenance might intensify, and the short - term futures market was expected to remain strong [3] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to ease temporarily as PDH device shutdown information continues to be released and there are maintenance plans for some devices. The market is trading on the expectation of tightened supply due to device maintenance, awaiting the fulfillment of the expected increase in maintenance in Q1 [2]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers are entering the market at low prices for essential purchases, and the overall downstream operating rate has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the demand follow - up after the propylene price rises to a high level due to profit compression [2]. - The cost side is supported by the rebound of international oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the strong propane prices. With the marginal improvement in supply - demand and sentiment boost, the propylene price continues to be strong. Future focus should be on cost changes and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [2]. - The strategy suggests cautious bottom - fishing long hedging. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong, awaiting the fulfillment of marginal device maintenance [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6082 yuan/ton (+68), the East China spot price is 6250 yuan/ton (+200), the North China spot price is 5995 yuan/ton (+25), the East China basis is 168 yuan/ton (+132), and the North China basis is - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 76% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 229 US dollars/ton (+32), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 65 US dollars/ton (+23), and the import profit is - 538 yuan/ton (-291) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 37% (-1.19%), production profit is - 25 yuan/ton (+15); epoxy propane operating rate is 74% (+0%), production profit is - 47 yuan/ton (+68); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (+2%), production profit is 521 yuan/ton (+14); octanol operating rate is 89% (+7%), production profit is 712 yuan/ton (-18); acrylic acid operating rate is 87% (+4%), production profit is 38 yuan/ton (-142); acrylonitrile operating rate is 79% (+0%), production profit is - 1190 yuan/ton (-26); phenol - acetone operating rate is 86% (+5%), production profit is - 916 yuan/ton (-140) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 44,690 tons (-3,100) [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of propylene are gradually tightening, and the price continues to be strong. The supply pressure of the propylene market is expected to be alleviated stage - by - stage due to the planned maintenance of PDH and MTO units. The downstream demand has a rigid support, and the cost - side support has rebounded. With the marginal improvement of supply and demand and emotional boost, the propylene price continues to be strongly sorted. It is recommended to cautiously go long on a hedging basis, waiting for the implementation of marginal unit maintenance [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure part involves figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the spread between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the spread between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [3][4][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - This part includes figures on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene production capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH production capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefins production capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery production capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [3][4][19] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It covers figures related to the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [3][4][37] 4. Propylene Inventory - This section involves figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [3][4][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side pressure restricts the rebound height of the propylene market. The overall propylene production remains high, and the supply is loose. Demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure on downstream industries. Although the cost - side support has strengthened recently, the short - term rebound of the market driven by sentiment may be limited [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves various data such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5772 yuan/ton (+14), the East China basis is 78 yuan/ton (-14), and the North China basis is - 260 yuan/ton (-75) [1][7][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (+1%). Different production methods have different profit situations, such as PDH production, MTO production, and naphtha cracking production. The import profit is - 388 yuan/ton (+7) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Different downstream products have different capacity utilization and profit changes. For example, PP powder capacity utilization is 37% (-0.20%) with a production profit of 25 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 74% (-2%) with a production profit of 372 yuan/ton (+230); etc [1] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The propylene plant - level inventory is 46010 tons (-550), and there is also data on PP powder plant - level inventory [1][68]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in propylene pricing and production levels indicate a stable supply-demand balance in the market, with slight fluctuations in production and demand across different sectors. Group 1: Pricing and Production - Dongying Hualian Petrochemical's latest propylene price has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton to 5753 yuan/ton, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons [1] - Propylene production in China for the week of December 12-18 reached 1.2271 million tons, an increase of 0.0006 million tons (0.05%) from the previous week [3] - Propylene operating load increased to 79.63%, up by 0.22% week-on-week, while propane and mixed propane dehydrogenation weekly operating load rose to 76.62%, up by 2.16% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The top 20 futures companies for propylene had a total long position of 31,800 contracts and a short position of 30,900 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.03, with a net position increase of 108 contracts [1] - The operating rates of downstream propylene factories showed mixed trends, with the highest increase in normal butanol due to the restart of several plants, while phenol ketone operating rates saw the largest decline due to shutdowns [3] - The overall supply of propylene remains relatively ample, with integrated companies still releasing propylene externally, indicating manageable inventory pressure for production companies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand situation remains loose, and the market rebound is weak. The overall start - up of propylene has slightly increased, and the start - up of some downstream products has recovered, but downstream resistance to high - priced raw materials exists. The cost side has uncertainties, and the rebound space of the market is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][21] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [40][41][48] V. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short - term weak and volatile [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] Core View of the Report - The propylene market is under pressure with the spot price weakening. The supply - demand fundamentals remain loose, and the cost - side support is limited. The demand side is difficult to improve significantly due to postponed new production and the approaching off - season of terminal demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves data such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [5][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][18] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It covers data on the differences between FOB in South Korea and CFR in China, CFR in Japan and CFR in China, CFR in Southeast Asia and CFR in China, and propylene import profit [30][32] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][47] V. Propylene Inventory - It involves data on propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of device maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - level reverse spread opportunity; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream device restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand drive the recent weak operation of propylene spot, and the futures market also fluctuates at a low level. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua's PDH device, the expected restart of Qingdao Jinneng, and the release of new capacity from Yulong increase the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stocking provides short - term support, but the stocking demand is poor due to cost pressure, with mainly low - price rigid demand purchases. In terms of cost, geopolitical tensions and the firmness of the external propane price support the cost side of propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and market prices in East China and Shandong [1][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [1][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]