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利德曼重组标的先声祥瑞评估合理性获机构确认 增值率162%低于行业均值
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-09 14:35
Core Viewpoint - The assessment of Xiansheng Xiangrui's valuation and the rationale behind the acquisition by Beijing Lideman Biochemical Co., Ltd. is deemed reasonable, with a valuation increase rate of 162.23%, which is lower than the average in the biopharmaceutical industry [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - Xiansheng Xiangrui is projected to achieve a revenue of 582.35 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of approximately 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180.14 million yuan, down 14.39% [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to adjustments in sales models, fiscal constraints in certain regions, and intensified local market competition, although terminal sales are expected to continue growing [2]. - The company is expected to see a non-simulated net profit of 158.76 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.3% [2]. - The market for tuberculosis prevention remains significant, with 696,000 new patients expected in 2024, and the market size for the relevant segment is projected to grow from 2.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.5 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.01% [2]. Group 2: Product and Market Position - Xiansheng Xiangrui's core product, TB-PPD, holds an approximate market share of 83.9% in the skin test market for 2024 [3]. - The company’s IGRA product is expected to be approved and sold by 2025, with other pipeline products like Xs02 progressing well and anticipated to launch by 2027 [3]. - The revenue growth forecast for 2025-2030 is a compound annual growth rate of 3.59%, which is cautious and lower than the industry growth rate [3]. Group 3: Valuation Methodology - The selection of comparable companies in the vaccine industry for market-based assessment is justified, as Xiansheng Xiangrui's core products are similar in management and sales models to vaccine companies [4]. - The assessment process involved selecting four comparable companies from 54 listed bioproduct companies, excluding competitors with a high proportion of agency business [4]. Group 4: Asset Divestiture - The decision to divest mRNA-related assets is considered reasonable, as the company had not achieved marketable R&D results from its mRNA technology platform investment of 41.41 million yuan [5]. - The asset was sold for 83.18 million yuan, generating an investment return of 11.62 million yuan, which is beneficial for focusing on core business and protecting shareholder interests [5]. Group 5: Fairness of Transaction Pricing - The total equity valuation of Xiansheng Xiangrui is assessed at 2.674 billion yuan, with a valuation increase rate of 162.23%, which is within a reasonable range compared to the average increase rate of 338.56% in recent biopharmaceutical transactions [6]. - The final transaction price for 70% of the shares is 1.733 billion yuan, aligning closely with the assessment results, confirming the fairness of the pricing [6].