Group 1 - The article highlights the disruption of the multilateral trade system due to the unilateral trade policies of the Trump administration, particularly the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, which have exacerbated the existing challenges faced by the World Trade Organization and the multilateral trade framework [1][5][10] - The post-World War II international trade order was established under the Bretton Woods system, with the U.S. at its core, leading to significant trade liberalization among developed countries, while developing countries gradually participated in the multilateral trade system [2][3] - The 1980s marked a significant shift towards liberalization, with Western countries abandoning Keynesianism in favor of free-market policies, leading to a new trade arrangement where developing countries began exporting manufactured goods to developed nations [3][4] Group 2 - The Trump administration's tariff policies have violated key principles of the multilateral trade system, including the commitment to agreed tariff rates, non-discrimination among members, and transparency in trade measures [6][7] - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. has led to two significant effects: a reduction in export opportunities for U.S. companies and a shift of products originally destined for the U.S. market to other countries, which in turn pressures those countries to increase their own tariffs [6][7] - The potential outcomes of these effects could range from the collapse of the multilateral trade system to the emergence of a managed multilateral drift, where regional trade agreements proliferate while still adhering to WTO rules [7][8] Group 3 - The current international trade landscape is characterized by a shift towards a "two superpowers and many strong" structure, with the U.S. and China as primary competitors, influencing the evolution of global trade dynamics [9][10] - China is positioned as a key player in resisting U.S. unilateralism, with its response to U.S. tariffs potentially leading to a more assertive role in shaping a non-U.S. international trade order [10][11] - The future international trade system is likely to be divided into three parts: the U.S. operating outside the multilateral framework, China promoting trade liberalization within the multilateral system, and other countries maintaining their own trade networks [11][12] Group 4 - The article suggests that China could play a dual role in the international system: either as a target of U.S. pressure or as a leader in uniting other countries against U.S. unilateral actions [13][14] - The potential for trade group formation among non-U.S. countries hinges on whether China can resolve its differences with the EU and Japan, which would influence the future of the multilateral trade system [12][14] - The article emphasizes the need for China to actively engage with other nations to promote a stable multilateral trade system and counteract U.S. unilateralism [16][18]