美智库专家：关税蚕食自身利益，美国并未开启贸易新秩序 他表示，美国的贸易伙伴们依然致力于支持全球贸易体系，同时也愿意对其进行改革，但并不会像美国 一样，以单边和交易的方式行事。如果其他国家继续遵守规则，将使美国陷入只属于自己的圈子。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 中新网8月21日电(记者 张乃月)今年8月初，美国贸易代表格里尔称美国正在打造名为"特恩贝里体系"的 所谓"对等关税"贸易体系，并称美国总统特朗普的做法带来了"改革全球贸易体系的成功"。然而，美国 对外关系委员会贸易政策研究员伊努·马纳克日前在英国《金融时报》撰文指出，美国实际上并没有主 导新贸易体系的创建，而是在剥夺自己从现有贸易体系享有的好处。 马纳克直言，掀起关税风波后，美政府甚至没有实现自己设定的"90天达成90项协议"的目标。截至目 前，达成的贸易协议仅覆盖美国不到一半的贸易额。 他认为，已有协议中提出的"降低关税、在非关税壁垒上合作、外国伙伴承诺投资美国"等内容并没有政 府声称得那么重要，其关税政策尚未带来真正的经济成果，而且与过去几十年持续贸易谈判所实现的大 规模市场开放相去甚远。 马纳克援引彼得森国际经济研究所研究称，二战后贸易自由 ...

当地时间7日，国际商会就美国新一轮关税措施正式生效发表声明。声明称，美国新规显著给企业增加 了复杂性，尤其对中小企业构成负担，并呼吁美方提供更清晰的执行指引。国际商会秘书长丹顿在声明 中指出，关税政策的影响不仅在于税率本身，更在于其带来的操作混乱与执行不确定性。美国实施的新 关税政策，使出口企业难以厘清适用税率，甚至连拥有完善合规体系的跨国公司也面临困境。声明还表 示，当前，全球贸易总体仍在世贸组织规则下运行，多个经济体也释放出贸易自由化的积极信号。 ...

● 从比较直接的效果来看，毫无疑问会降低美国的贸易量，因为它提高了关税的成本。别的国家向美国出 口会相应减少，只不过可能需要一段时间才会显示出来。 ● 另外，会增加美国国内这些商品的价格，提高通胀，只不过幅度有多大还难以断定。因为商品对价格的 反应有一定的弹性。 当地时间8月3日，美国贸易代表格里尔表示，美国总统上周对多国加征的新一轮关税"基本已定"，不会在 当前谈判中作出调整，包括对从加拿大进口的商品征收35%关税、对巴西征收50%关税、对印度征收25% 关税、对瑞士征收39%关税。新一轮关税将于8月7日实施。 此外，美国耶鲁大学预算实验室日前发布报告显示，随着美国关税政策进一步调整，其平均有效关税税率 目前已达到18.3%，是1934年以来最高水平。 问题一：美国的高关税会带来哪些冲击？ 对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院院长 屠新泉： ● 这次美国的关税政策变化是前所未有的。对美国来说，也是一次重大的政策变化，对美国的具体影响到 底有多大，现在也需要持续观察。 ● 一百多年前，美国曾经是个贸易保护主义的国家。在过去的九十多年中，美国是一个倡导贸易自由化的 国家。现在，又开始回到了力推贸易保护的状态。 ● ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the full island closure operation in Hainan signifies a new phase in the construction of the free trade port, enhancing international connectivity and facilitating a new round of open-up dividends [1][2] - The closure will transform Hainan into a special customs supervision area, allowing for "one line open, two lines controlled, and free flow within the island," which promotes local high-quality development while maintaining control [1][2] - The "zero tariff" policy will expand from 1,900 to 6,600 categories, covering 74% of goods, significantly reducing corporate costs, particularly benefiting high-end manufacturing and biomedicine industries [1] Group 2 - The processing and value-added policies will lower the threshold for benefits, expanding the scope of beneficiaries and supporting the cultivation of industrial chains and clusters [2] - The establishment of a regional offshore trade center will enable companies to operate global orders without actual transit, significantly reducing transaction costs for international trade enterprises [2] - Traditional advantageous industries, such as tourism retail, will benefit from increased duty-free shopping limits and "zero tariff" policies, attracting more international visitors [3] Group 3 - The closure operation is a long-term task that requires continuous improvement and adaptation to form a policy system compatible with a high-level free trade port [3] - Hainan's free trade port closure is a significant move for China's expansion in the context of rising global protectionism, aiming to become a key gateway for China's new era of opening up [3]

Core Insights - The announcement of Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date on December 18, 2025, marks a significant opportunity for various industries, particularly tourism and retail [1][4]. Industry Summaries Tourism Industry - The closure policy will facilitate smoother and freer international exchanges, enhancing Hainan's position as an international tourism consumption center and promoting long-term development of the tourism industry [1][4]. - The continued implementation of duty-free policies will maintain Hainan's competitive advantage, attracting more visitors and boosting the overall development of the tourism retail market [1][4]. Retail Industry - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan is expected to see new growth opportunities post-closure, with optimized duty-free policies attracting more consumers [1][4]. Airport Industry - The airport sector will benefit from the expansion of international routes and infrastructure upgrades, leading to significant growth in passenger and cargo throughput in Hainan during 2025-2026 [1][4]. Real Estate Industry - Hainan's real estate market, particularly in high-end residential and tourism-related properties, is anticipated to gain more attention following the closure [4]. Related Companies - China Duty Free Group (1880.HK): Expected to benefit from duty-free policies, with a potential recovery in profitability due to supportive policies and increased consumer traffic [5]. - Meilan Airport (0357.HK): Structural opportunities from Hainan Free Trade Port development and innovation in non-aviation business models are likely to drive performance improvements [5].

Group 1 - The potential impact of U.S. tariff policies on the economy raises concerns among economists, suggesting that both the U.S. and global economies may only be experiencing a calm before a storm, with the worst yet to come [1][2] - Analysts warn that if tariffs reach 20% or higher, businesses may completely halt imports, leading to delayed major decisions and reduced economic activity [2] - The uncertainty caused by trade policies is seen as costly, potentially equivalent to the actual tariff rates, and inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, which may suppress growth [2] Group 2 - Germany's leadership is considering retaliatory measures against U.S. pressure for higher baseline tariffs, indicating a readiness for potential conflict in trade relations [3] - The U.S. economy is described as more fragile than recent data suggests, with employment, consumption, and an overvalued stock market nearing unfavorable turning points [3] - The article emphasizes that without a decisive shift away from protectionist policies by the U.S. President, the stability of the economy may be at risk [3]

对此，亚洲协会政策研究所副所长温迪·卡特勒指出："随着各国发现满足美国要求的难度日益增大，它 们寻求与其他国家利益交汇点、加强合作的意愿必将愈发强烈。" 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为782元/克至810元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于765元/克 至800元/克。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 今日周三（7月16日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于773.86元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报776.30元/ 克，下跌0.25%，最高触及779.40元/克，最低下探773.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 【要闻速递】 鉴于美国对不同东盟成员国实施差异化的加征税率，这一举措恐将在经济、贸易及投资领域引发东盟内 部竞争国家间的摩擦。随着美国新税率政策定于8月1日生效，亚洲各国正积极筹备应对之策。 韩国新任总统李在明已迅速行动，派遣特使前往澳大利亚与德国，就防务合作与贸易议题展开深入讨 论，并规划向更多国家派出高级别代表团，以强化国际合作网络。与此同时，巴西与印度宣布了一项雄 心勃勃的计划，旨在将双边贸易额大幅提升70%，至200亿美元，彰显出双方深化经贸关系的决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates that global trade policy activities have increased, with rising tensions among major trading partners contributing to a more volatile and unpredictable trade environment [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 2: Trade Barriers and Policy Recommendations - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2]. - The report highlights that retaliatory measures, such as those taken by Canada and the EU against U.S. trade policies, are likely to exacerbate trade tensions and lead to a decline in global trade volume [2]. Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - Earlier projections for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for merchandise trade growth now revised downward [3]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer indicates a slight increase in the global goods trade index, but a decline in new export orders suggests a slowdown in trade growth later this year [4]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The report notes an increase in global trade imbalances, particularly with the U.S. experiencing a widening trade deficit over the past four quarters [5]. - The potential for further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, increasing the risk of trade fragmentation [5].

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from "expansion" to "downward adjustment" due to increasing trade policy activities and geopolitical tensions among major trading partners [1][3] - The WTO report indicates that global trade uncertainty is rising, influenced by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility and unpredictability in the global trade environment [1][2] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that while global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, it will face significant headwinds in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions [1][4] Group 2 - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2][5] - The WTO's previous forecast in April predicted a 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, with a 2.5% growth expected in 2026, but this outlook has been revised downward due to U.S. tariff policies [2][3] - The global goods trade barometer showed a rise in the index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].