Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the personal loan business of commercial banks, highlighting the dual challenges of business expansion and asset disposal [2]. Core Insights - The personal loan business is facing significant challenges due to a downward trend in asset quality and a shift in credit structure towards corporate loans, with personal loans growing at a slower pace [5][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of personal loans as a core business for commercial banks to navigate the current low-interest-rate environment and the impact of financial technology [2][39]. - Future stability in personal loan quality is anticipated with macroeconomic recovery, real estate market stabilization, and advancements in financial technology [2][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Development History and Structural Characteristics of Personal Loans - Personal loan business has transitioned from reliance on housing loans to a more diversified approach, with housing loans remaining the primary component [4]. - Since 2022, the growth rate of personal loans has declined significantly due to regulatory controls on real estate loans and cautious consumer behavior [5][11]. 2. Asset Quality Performance and Risk Causes of Personal Loans - The asset quality of personal loans has deteriorated, with an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) driven by macroeconomic pressures and risk accumulation [21][22]. - Different types of personal loans exhibit varying levels of risk, with credit cards showing the highest NPL rates and personal housing loans maintaining relatively low rates [27][28]. 3. Risk Mitigation Pressures - Commercial banks are facing increased pressure to manage risks and dispose of non-performing assets, employing various strategies such as internal collection and asset securitization [32][34]. - Smaller banks, particularly regional ones, struggle with risk management due to limited technological capabilities and reliance on traditional methods [38]. 4. Outlook for Personal Loan Business - The personal loan sector is expected to remain a crucial part of commercial banks' retail transformation, with a focus on consumer loans and operational efficiency [39][40]. - The report suggests that as the macroeconomic environment improves, personal loans may experience renewed growth opportunities, although challenges remain for small and regional banks [40].