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转债新高,困局何解
2025-07-11 01:05
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The convertible bond market has recently reached new highs, with the average closing price at 124 yuan and the median close to 126 yuan, placing it in the top 93% since 2020 [2][3] - The number of low-priced convertible bonds has decreased to below 20, accounting for approximately 3.6% of the market [2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - In a bull market, banks, brokerages, and convertible bonds will exit quickly, while in a volatile market, some funds will withdraw, leading to a compression of premium rates for high-priced convertible bonds [3] - It is recommended to focus on mid-to-low priced convertible bonds like Wentai and Shuyou, which offer long-term effectiveness and price protection [1][2][6] - Policy-driven market reactions are evident, particularly in the photovoltaic sector with notable price recoveries for companies like Jinko, Jinao, and Jinneng [5][6] - The construction materials sector, particularly state-owned enterprises like Wanquan and Jidong, is rated highly but faces challenges due to being below net asset value [5] - The cyclical industries, such as pig farming, represented by companies like Xiwang, Muyuan, and Wens, are also worth attention due to good cash flow and stock elasticity [5][6] Additional Important Content - The PCB industry is benefiting from high demand driven by the computing power sector, easing tariffs, and rising copper prices, which account for 30% of PCB costs [9] - Key PCB companies like Jing Er San and Huazheng are seeing significant growth, with revenue and profit targets set to increase by 20-30% [10][11] - Huayou Cobalt reported a net profit of 1.448 billion yuan in Q2, a 26% year-on-year increase, driven by rising cobalt prices and production capacity [12] - The company is also expanding its market reach, including plans to supply products to overseas clients [14] - Guolv Convertible Bond has shown strong performance, with a projected net profit of nearly 1 billion yuan for the year, driven by high demand in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor sectors [15] - Zhongchong's performance has been less affected by tariffs due to its production layout in the U.S. and Cambodia, maintaining a stable growth trajectory [16] Recommendations - Focus on mid-to-low priced convertible bonds such as Wentai and Shuyou for their elasticity and price protection [6] - Consider cyclical industries like pig farming for their strong cash flow and stock elasticity [5][6] - The top ten recommended convertible bonds span technology growth, new consumption, and cyclical growth sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these investments [17]