联系人 常瑛珞 changyl@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《"HALO 交易"与"抱团"新战场》 2026-03-01 2. 《开辟"抱团"新战场》 2026-02- 25 3. 《出海打先锋，迎接开门红—策马逐牛 8》 2026-02-23 财通策略&多行业——2026 年 3 月金股 证券研究报告 月度金股 / 2026.03.02 分析师 徐陈翼 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030003 xucy@ctsec.com 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 当前美股经验-HALO 交易，放弃看不明白的科技后半场，提前转向长期左 侧交易替代对冲：美股科技虽然业绩持续向好、资本开支延续投入，但估值已 至高位、后续资本开支能延续几年+AI 会不会替代冲击软件/轻资产行业的担 忧增加。在科技业绩持续新高、行情难言结束之时，市场反而转向 HALO 交 易（重资产低过时），除了受益当前大宗商品涨价，背后其实是长期战略层面 放弃 allin 赚取科技最后一浪，转而选择低估值策略寻求对科技侧持仓的替代 和对冲。低估值选择上，由于周期/稳定/重制造等重资产方向难以被 AI 整体 替代，产业门槛仍然明确， ...

一、总体情况 聚焦优势行业和重点领域，围绕工业机械、建筑建材、医保医疗、食品、纺织服装、车辆等重点行业，将中东、南美、"一带一路"沿线国家（地 区）展会列入计划，形成每月均有展会的市场开拓节奏，助力企业巩固传统市场，开拓新兴市场。 结合企业开拓市场需求，择优选取100个境内外展会列入贸易促进计划（见附件），其中货物贸易展会89个，服务贸易展会7个，跨境电商专题展 会4个；境外展会94个，境内展会6个；重点展会30个，推荐展会70个。 为进一步推动外贸稳规模优结构，发挥政策引导作用，助力我市企业多元拓展国际市场，按照市县联动、资源整合、动态调整、公开公正原则， 市商务局制定了《徐州市2026年贸易促进计划》（以下简称贸促计划）。现将有关事宜通知如下。 二、组织实施 贸促计划分为重点展会、推荐展会。重点展会由市商务局会同市财政局制定支持政策，有关支持细则另行通知；推荐展会由各县（市）区商务部 门因地制宜，参考市级支持政策制定本地政策，实行错位扶持。 三、有关要求 徐州市2026年贸易促进计划 | 序号 | 展会名称 | 展会日期 | 举办国别 | 举办城市 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Commercial Aerospace - Shanghai Port Bay's perovskite technology in collaboration with Dongfang Risen is expected to benefit from the SpaceX supply chain. The increase in satellite launches will boost the demand for solar wings, positively impacting related companies [1][3]. Refractory Materials - Companies like Zhongsen Technology, Luyang Energy, and Zhonggang Nairuo are performing well through business extensions and are considered important targets for investment as the sector begins to rally [1][3]. AI+ Sector - Companies such as China National Materials, Honghe Technology, Feilihua, and China Jushi are benefiting from LDK demand, leading to significant profit increases. Attention is drawn to upstream raw materials like high-end electronic fabrics [1][3]. Construction and Building Materials - New business models in the construction and building materials industry focus on increasing market share and revenue scale, with a clear supply clearing and gradual industry improvement. Sanjias Tree's beautiful countryside business and community stores are rapidly developing, while Yuhong enhances competitiveness through service model innovation [1][4]. Real Estate Market Insights Recent Data and Trends - Recent data indicates a positive trend in the real estate market, particularly in first and second-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volume has increased year-on-year, and price indices have turned positive. The listing volume has decreased, with demand driven by school district housing improving transaction structure. The new housing market is expected to rebound post-holiday due to supply constraints [1][5]. Investment Strategy - The current rally in real estate stocks is characterized by a mix of speculative and long-term capital, suggesting a more sustainable upward trend. The second quarter may present an opportunity to increase real estate positions, with recommended stocks including China Merchants Shekou, New City Holdings, Jindi Group, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [1][6][8]. Transportation and Logistics Sector Investment Themes - The transportation and logistics sector has four main investment themes: 1. Domestic express logistics is entering a critical consolidation phase, with a focus on leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [2][9]. 2. Cross-border e-commerce and the Belt and Road Initiative, with key companies including SF Holding and JD Logistics [2][9]. 3. Platform transportation through internet platforms like Didi and Cao Cao Mobility, which are expected to enhance profits with the realization of autonomous driving and new energy vehicle replacements [2][10]. 4. Large cycle sectors, including aviation and shipping, are anticipated to see profit growth due to tight supply and recovering demand. Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping are recommended, with significant profit elasticity expected from VLCC operations [2][10]. Additional Considerations - The real estate market's upward speed is not expected to be as rapid as in previous cycles, with a potential long-term upward trend following policy implementation. The core cities' housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, with real estate stocks likely leading the fundamental bottom by 2 to 3 quarters [1][8]. - Long-term capital movements should be closely monitored to adjust investment strategies accordingly [1][7].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced slight volume contraction and consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points on February 11, 2026. The overall trading volume was 2 trillion yuan, down from 2.12 trillion yuan the previous day [5][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data exceeded market expectations, contributing to the outperformance of cyclical sectors. The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month [6][7]. - Key sectors such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals saw significant gains, with increases of 3.29%, 2.39%, and 2.18% respectively [6][7]. Bond Market - Government bond futures mostly rose, with the 30-year main contract increasing by 0.05% to 112.750 yuan. The 10-year main contract rose by 0.06% to 108.540 yuan [10]. - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 403.5 billion yuan into the market, maintaining a stable liquidity expectation [10]. Commodity Market - The commodity market saw most prices rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 9.18%. Basic metals also experienced gains, with nickel rising by 4.02% [10]. - The increase in nickel prices was attributed to production cuts in Indonesia, which reduced the approved nickel mining quota for 2026 compared to 2025 [10]. - The rise in lithium carbonate prices was influenced by low trading volumes ahead of the Spring Festival, with total industry inventory at a one-year low of 107,056 tons [10]. Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include AI applications, commercial aerospace, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and consumer goods, with a focus on technological advancements and policy support [11][12]. - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy in technology and consumer sectors, with an emphasis on low-cost entry points [13]. Core Thoughts Summary - The market is showing a differentiated upward trend, with a continuation of the spring rally. Short-term effects from the pre-holiday period are evident, and a balanced allocation in technology and consumption is recommended [13]. - The bond market is expected to remain favorable due to a generally loose monetary policy and ongoing demand for bond investments [13]. - In the commodity sector, fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated due to margin adjustments, while the long-term outlook remains positive [13].

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by over 1.4% and surpassing 4100 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by over 2%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by nearly 3% [1][7] - Market trading volume increased compared to the previous Friday, indicating heightened investor activity [1][10] Government Policy and Economic Measures - The State Council held a meeting on February 6 to discuss policies for promoting effective investment, emphasizing the importance of investment in stabilizing economic growth and enhancing development momentum [2][8] - The meeting highlighted the need to innovate and improve policy measures, utilizing central budget investments, long-term special bonds, and local government bonds to support key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2][8] - This signals an acceleration of investments related to national strategies and the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bolster macroeconomic stability and provide support for sectors like infrastructure construction, building materials, and major equipment [2][8] Foreign Exchange and Gold Reserves - As of the end of January, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, an increase of $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025 [2][9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2][9] - The rise in foreign reserves reflects a stable international balance of payments and enhanced resilience against external shocks, providing a solid foundation for the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][9] Regulatory Developments - On February 6, the People's Bank of China and eight other departments issued a notice to further prevent and manage risks associated with virtual currencies, categorizing related activities as illegal financial activities [3][9] - This regulatory upgrade aims to control the financial operations of virtual currencies domestically and isolate risks from traditional financial systems, facilitating the promotion and application of digital currencies [3][9] Market Performance - On February 9, the A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4123.09 points (up 1.41%), the Shenzhen Component Index at 14208.44 points (up 2.17%), and the ChiNext Index at 3332.77 points (up 2.98%) [4][10] - All sectors in the Shenwan first-level industry index experienced gains, with telecommunications, comprehensive, and media sectors leading the increases [4][10] Trading Volume and Margin Data - The market turnover reached 22,703.66 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [6][11] - The margin trading balance reported on the previous Friday was 26,636.60 billion yuan, showing a decline from the previous trading day [6][11]

Group 1: Company Overview - Nanya Technology (688519.SH) is expected to achieve revenues of 49.48 billion, 61.75 billion, and 73.41 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 2.24 billion, 5.11 billion, and 7.83 billion CNY respectively, leading to a target market value of 229.80 billion CNY and a target price of 97.88 CNY for 2026, receiving a "Buy" rating [2][7]. - Shunxin Agriculture (000860.SZ) is projected to have revenues of 72.6 billion, 79.6 billion, and 86.7 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of -1.5 billion, 0.6 billion, and 1.7 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline in 2025 but recovery in subsequent years, and is rated "Accumulate" [4][21]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The demand for high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2024 to 2027, driven by AI and high-frequency applications, although the market is currently dominated by a few key players [8][9]. - The white liquor industry is facing significant pressure, with production showing negative growth and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality over quantity, leading to intensified competition and a focus on value rather than scale [20][21]. - The asset tokenization market is entering a new era of compliance management, providing more diverse financing channels for companies with quality underlying assets, which may optimize their financing structures and enhance compliance credibility [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Urban renewal is a key strategy for promoting high-quality urban development, transitioning from large-scale expansion to enhancing existing urban quality and efficiency [1][2][3] Group 1: Urban Renewal as a Strategic Action - Urban renewal is recognized as a comprehensive and systematic strategic action to accelerate urban energy transformation and stabilize investment while promoting consumption [2][3] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of urban renewal tasks, including the renovation of old residential areas, streets, factories, and infrastructure, which will involve substantial direct investment [2][3] Group 2: Local Government Initiatives - Various local governments are actively promoting urban renewal as a crucial measure for high-quality development, aiming to meet citizens' needs for a better quality of life and to enhance urban capacity [3][4] - Specific initiatives include financial support for urban renewal projects, encouraging banks to provide favorable loan conditions, and exploring new models for the renovation of old and dangerous housing [4][5] Group 3: Future Directions and Focus Areas - By 2026, urban renewal efforts will focus on safety and urgent needs, such as the maintenance of staircases, elevators, and adaptations for the elderly and children [5][6] - The approach to urban renewal will diversify, including self-renovation and original demolition and reconstruction, while also creating new consumption scenarios to stimulate domestic demand and investment [5][6]

Market Overview - The spring market has experienced a pause with significant corrections in gold and silver prices, leading to a wide fluctuation in global markets. However, the market quickly stabilized after the initial downturn, with COMEX gold recovering to 5000 points and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4100 points [1][13]. - Affected by overseas uncertainties, A-shares saw a substantial adjustment but rebounded on February 3, demonstrating strong market resilience [2][13]. Long-term Opportunities - The new productive forces are becoming the engine for economic growth, with an increasing share of "new economy" stocks in the market. AI is expected to see application results this year, alongside sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and energy storage entering a favorable cycle [3][14]. - A-shares are attractive in terms of valuation compared to major global markets, with low foreign capital positions and the establishment of mechanisms for long-term domestic funds entering the market. The trend of "deposit migration" among residents may continue in a low-interest-rate environment [3][14][15]. - Policy emphasis on expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption is expected to translate into systematic improvements in corporate profitability. Following the Spring Festival, policy catalysts are anticipated to accelerate, potentially leading to better index performance post-holiday [15]. Sector Focus - The market is expected to focus on cyclical price increases, with sectors like oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors continuing to see positive trends. The construction materials sector may benefit from major projects under the 14th Five-Year Plan [15]. - Investors are encouraged to consider broad-based products like the CSI A500 ETF (159338) for exposure to industry leaders, as well as a tech + dividend "barbell" strategy as a satellite approach [4][15]. Commodity Market Insights - The gold market has faced its largest drawdown in 40 years but has quickly rebounded, indicating that the bull market is likely not over yet. Historical context suggests that significant narrative shifts are required to signal the end of a bull market [5][16]. - From a macro perspective, a super cycle in commodities is anticipated this year, with fundamental factors driving long-term trends. The black and chemical sectors, currently at relatively low levels, may offer better value post-adjustment [8][17]. Investment Strategies - For investors concerned about market volatility, "fixed income plus" products are recommended. These strategies focus on safety and stability while allowing for some equity exposure to capture market gains [19][20]. - An example is the Guotai Helix 6-month holding mixed fund, which combines high-grade credit bonds for the fixed income portion and a flexible allocation to equities, aiming for a balanced approach to risk and return [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced significant valuation increases since the second half of 2024, leading to accelerated industry rotation and increased volatility, making a balanced allocation strategy a favorable choice [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund (Fund Code: 026462) is currently being issued, managed by the emerging fund manager Wang Kaiduan, who is known for his balanced investment style [1] - Wang Kaiduan has a diverse background, having covered various sectors such as steel, machinery, and media internet, which provides a solid foundation for balanced investment in a rapidly changing market [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Wang Kaiduan employs a dynamic investment approach based on the industry lifecycle, categorizing industries into six stages: emergence, acceleration, collapse, clearing, maturity, and recovery, to identify investment opportunities [2] - The investment strategy emphasizes industry diversification and includes a "blacklist" mechanism to avoid companies with governance issues or unclear business models, focusing on firms that can create sustained value across market cycles [2] Group 3: Fund Performance - The Invesco Great Wall Chenglong Leading One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, managed by Wang Kaiduan, demonstrated a balanced allocation with its top ten holdings spread across more than seven different industries, achieving a net value return of 29.87% in 2025, surpassing the benchmark by 11.67 percentage points [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Wang Kaiduan is optimistic about the manufacturing sector's overseas expansion and inflation-linked assets, driven by global economic growth primarily led by AI investments, which are expected to extend beyond TMT-related hardware to traditional resource sectors [4] - Specific areas of interest include midstream sectors such as power generation and energy, as well as traditional capital goods in emerging markets, where Chinese companies are rapidly gaining market share [4] - The Invesco Great Wall Balanced Growth Equity Fund features a floating management fee structure that aligns the interests of fund managers and investors, enhancing the overall investment experience [4]

Economic Policy and Agricultural Development - The central government's focus for 2026 includes four key tasks in the agricultural sector aimed at enhancing production capacity and quality, providing targeted assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing rural development[2] - The importance of developing new agricultural productivity is emphasized due to the return of migrant workers to rural areas, which can help utilize rural labor and improve income levels[2] - A pilot program for land extension will be implemented in 29 provinces, excluding Guizhou and Tibet, to support rural land management[2] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on February 4[3] - Current market liquidity is described as neutral and moderately loose, with seasonal tightening expected as the Spring Festival approaches[3] - There is potential for lowering existing mortgage rates to stimulate consumption, as pressures from exchange rates and bank net interest margins have eased[3] Stock Market Performance - On February 4, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, with total trading volume at 24,809.71 billion yuan, down by 632.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day[4] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%, and the STAR 50 Index decreased by 1.2%[4] - The overall A-share market saw a 0.45% increase, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.05%[4] Bond Market and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.8201%, with a change of +0.24 basis points[4] - Average interbank rates for R001 and R007 were 1.3962% and 1.5554%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included coal (7.58%), construction materials (3.48%), real estate (2.97%), and transportation (2.82%), while sectors like media and telecommunications saw declines of -3.12% and -2.73% respectively[4][25]