根据国家统计局公布数据，今年前2个月，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，比上年全年加快0.5个 百分点。其中，消费品"以旧换新"政策带动了相应品类商品零售额较快增长。 本文首发于《21世纪经济报道》2025.03.27 3月17日，在国新办新闻发布会上，国家发展改革委副主任李春临介绍，日前出台的《提振消费专项行动 方案》注重供需两端综合发力、统筹促消费和惠民生、强化消费政策协同。 政府工作报告把大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求列为今年各项重点任务之首，并明确 提出实施提振消费专项行动。 从前2个月数据看，房地产的总体需求量有所回升，稳楼市方面应当有更大力度的举措，因为随着楼市稳 定，家装、家电、电梯等相关的产业品类需求也会迎来上升。 同时，今年前两个月的出口增长有所回落。因此，我们认为，消费增速今年全年达到5%以上，可以确保 今年GDP目标的完成。国家已经出台了一系列提振消费专项政策，后续政策落地仍需要多方努力。 消费增速超5%： 今年GDP增长关键 《21世纪》 今年1-2月份，社会消费品零售总额83731亿元，同比增长4.0%，延续修复态势，当前消费结 构中有哪些重要支撑？今年消费对经济增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer confidence and increasing the income of low- to middle-income individuals as key strategies for stimulating domestic consumption and economic growth in China [1][5]. Group 1: Consumption Growth and Economic Impact - In the first two months of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which is an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The consumption structure has shown significant support from categories such as sports and entertainment products, with double-digit growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, while automotive consumption has slightly declined [6][7]. - The government has introduced a series of policies aimed at boosting consumption, and it is believed that consumption growth could exceed 5% this year, which is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target [7]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Subsidies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been effective, with last year's subsidies of 150 billion yuan leading to 1 trillion yuan in corresponding consumption, particularly benefiting home appliances, electric vehicles, and mobile phones [8][9]. - This year, the subsidy scale for the "old-for-new" policy has increased to 300 billion yuan, which could potentially drive 2 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing approximately 4 percentage points to overall consumption growth [8][9]. - There is a need to differentiate between policy-driven consumption increases and inherent consumer demand, as the current "old-for-new" policy primarily benefits discretionary spending rather than essential goods [9]. Group 3: Income Growth and Structural Reforms - Increasing residents' income is essential for boosting consumption, with suggestions for enhancing social security measures and optimizing the wage system in state-owned enterprises [12][16]. - The article highlights the importance of targeted subsidies for low-income populations, as rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, indicating significant potential in rural markets [15][18]. - The government is encouraged to simplify unemployment insurance processes and increase support for unemployed individuals to enhance their purchasing power [17]. Group 4: Service Consumption and Urbanization - Service consumption in China has been growing faster than physical goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [19]. - Urbanization policies that encourage population movement to larger cities could further stimulate service consumption, as larger urban areas benefit from economies of scale [19].