证券研究报告|商贸零售 服务消费政策延续升级，新兴赛道蓄势发力 [Table_ReportType] ——消费行业快评报告（三）[Table_ReportDate] [事件Table_Summary] ： 3 月 5 日，十四届全国人大四次会议在北京开幕，国务院总理李强 作政府工作报告。今年政府工作报告提出，实施服务消费提质惠民 行动，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景，加快培育消费 新增长点。活跃线下消费，激发下沉市场消费活力。清理消费领域 不合理限制措施，释放文旅、赛事、康养等领域消费潜力。支持有 条件的地方推广中小学春秋假，落实职工带薪错峰休假制度。加强 消费者权益保护。优化入境消费环境，打造"购在中国"品牌。 投资要点： 延续政策方向，服务消费成为扩内需关键着力点。今年政府工作报 告延续了此前多项目标明确、落地效果显著的服务消费举措，主要 体现在以下三个方面：（1）在国内游高位运行基础上，春节黄金 周旅游市场仍保持稳健增长，政策重心进一步转向"清理消费领域 不合理限制措施"，旨在破除消费堵点，持续激发文旅消费潜力； （2）去年春秋假试点及带薪休假优化落地效果良好，今年表述升 级为"支持有条件的地方 ...

Group 1: Consumer Promotion - In 2026, the implementation of a consumption upgrade program will be optimized, focusing on the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and digital product sectors [3][4] - The service consumption sector will be enhanced through actions aimed at improving the supply levels in cultural entertainment, tourism, dining, and healthcare [3][4] - New growth points in service consumption will be cultivated, including transportation services, housekeeping, and inbound consumption, supported by relevant policies [3][4] Group 2: Foreign Trade Stability - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade, including promoting cross-border e-commerce and enhancing the "Export China" brand [5][6] - Service trade and digital trade will be key areas for innovation, with plans to establish national service trade innovation development demonstration zones [5][6] - Efforts will be made to expand the export of productive services and enhance the international capabilities of professional service institutions [5][6] Group 3: Foreign Investment Expansion - In 2026, there will be a focus on creating new advantages for attracting foreign investment, with plans to open up sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education [7][8] - A national-level overseas comprehensive service platform will be established to provide a one-stop service for companies looking to invest abroad [8] - The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the process of regional and bilateral trade investment agreements, enhancing market access and investment protection [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is actively promoting service consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with a comprehensive policy framework established to enhance service consumption quality and accessibility [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The State Council issued the "Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of Service Consumption" in August last year, which serves as the foundational document for service consumption initiatives [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce has established a cross-departmental working mechanism to implement the policies outlined in the "Opinions," creating a "1+N" policy system for service consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Service Consumption Statistics - In the previous year, the per capita expenditure on service consumption accounted for 46.1% of total per capita consumption, contributing 63% to overall consumption growth [2]. - From January to August this year, service retail sales increased by 5.1%, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.3 percentage points [2]. Group 3: Development Focus Areas - The government is focusing on three main areas: addressing weaknesses in basic service consumption, promoting the integration of business, tourism, culture, and sports, and accelerating the growth of new service consumption through digital and green initiatives [2]. - There is significant potential for growth in sectors such as entertainment, tourism, transportation, health, and elder care, indicating a shift towards service consumption becoming a dominant form of consumption [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer confidence and increasing the income of low- to middle-income individuals as key strategies for stimulating domestic consumption and economic growth in China [1][5]. Group 1: Consumption Growth and Economic Impact - In the first two months of this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4%, which is an acceleration of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [6][7]. - The consumption structure has shown significant support from categories such as sports and entertainment products, with double-digit growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, while automotive consumption has slightly declined [6][7]. - The government has introduced a series of policies aimed at boosting consumption, and it is believed that consumption growth could exceed 5% this year, which is crucial for achieving the GDP growth target [7]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Subsidies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been effective, with last year's subsidies of 150 billion yuan leading to 1 trillion yuan in corresponding consumption, particularly benefiting home appliances, electric vehicles, and mobile phones [8][9]. - This year, the subsidy scale for the "old-for-new" policy has increased to 300 billion yuan, which could potentially drive 2 trillion yuan in consumption, contributing approximately 4 percentage points to overall consumption growth [8][9]. - There is a need to differentiate between policy-driven consumption increases and inherent consumer demand, as the current "old-for-new" policy primarily benefits discretionary spending rather than essential goods [9]. Group 3: Income Growth and Structural Reforms - Increasing residents' income is essential for boosting consumption, with suggestions for enhancing social security measures and optimizing the wage system in state-owned enterprises [12][16]. - The article highlights the importance of targeted subsidies for low-income populations, as rural consumption is growing faster than urban consumption, indicating significant potential in rural markets [15][18]. - The government is encouraged to simplify unemployment insurance processes and increase support for unemployed individuals to enhance their purchasing power [17]. Group 4: Service Consumption and Urbanization - Service consumption in China has been growing faster than physical goods consumption, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [19]. - Urbanization policies that encourage population movement to larger cities could further stimulate service consumption, as larger urban areas benefit from economies of scale [19].

Core Viewpoint - Consumption remains the primary driving force for economic growth, with service consumption showing a positive trend and becoming a new growth point for consumption [2] Group 1: Service Consumption - The government will implement actions to enhance service consumption quality and organize a series of activities to promote service consumption [2] - The main issue in goods consumption is weak consumer capacity and willingness, while the main challenge in service consumption is insufficient quality supply [2] Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to expand pilot programs in telecommunications, healthcare, and education, and promote orderly opening in internet culture, enhancing the quality of service supply [3] - There have been over 700,000 applications for vehicle replacement subsidies and over 300,000 for vehicle scrapping subsidies since 2025, totaling over 1 million applications [2]