人民财讯11月19日电，商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年10月我国消费市场情况。10月份，在国庆中秋 假期带动下，消费市场保持平稳增长态势，消费潜力持续释放。 一是商品消费平稳增长。10月份，商品零售额增长2.8%，以旧换新相关商品销售保持较快增长，其中 限额以上单位通讯器材、文化办公用品、家具零售额分别增长23.2%、13.5%和9.6%。 二是服务消费增势良好。1—10月份，服务零售额同比增长5.3%，增速比前三季度加快0.1个百分点，比 商品零售额快0.9个百分点。 三是新型消费较快增长。据商务部商务大数据，10月份，重点监测平台智能健康设备销售额增长超两 成，智能穿戴设备销售额增长约4%，部分一级能效家电销售额增长超10%，有机食品销售额增长超 8%。 四是乡村消费快于城镇。县域消费持续扩容，下沉市场活力十足。 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-11-19 关注中游数字化改造进展 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）黑色：玻璃价格小幅回落。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回升。3）地产：建材价格指数小幅回升。 中游：1）化工：PX开工持续高位，PTA开工回落。2）能源：电厂耗煤量小幅回升。3）基建：沥青开工回落。 下游：1）地产：二、三线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国际航班班次小幅回落。 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）工业和信息化部办公厅印发《高标准数字园区建设指南》，目标到2027年，建成200个左右高标准 数字园区，实现园区规上工业企业数字化改造全覆盖工业互联网应用覆盖园区全部行业，规上工业企业数字化改 造覆盖率达100%。数字基础设施支撑作用显著增强，双千兆网络覆盖率达100%，算力基础设施实现有效部署和应 用，数据开放共享、安全保障水平显著提升。 服务行业： 1）中国人民银行北京市分行等12部门印发《金融支持北京市提振和扩大消费的实施方案》。其中提出， 加大债券市场融资支持力度。支持符合条件的 ...

Group 1 - The total consumption in Beijing from January to October increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with service consumption remaining active, particularly in information, transportation, and cultural entertainment sectors [1] - Service consumption in the city grew by 4.7% year-on-year, driven by internet live streaming, gaming, and lifestyle services, with the information sector achieving double-digit growth [1] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, total tourism spending in the city increased by 4.7%, with spending from inbound tourists rising by over 50% [1] Group 2 - The total retail sales of social consumer goods (referred to as "social retail total") reached 1,124.86 billion yuan from January to October, a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, but the decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [2] - In October, retail sales grew by 12.6% due to the early launch of the "Double Eleven" promotional activities, strong sales of new products, and the effectiveness of local consumption vouchers [2] - Among 13 major retail categories, 10 performed better than in the previous three quarters, with jewelry, cosmetics, and home appliances seeing year-on-year retail sales growth of 41.2%, 10.8%, and 3.4% respectively [2] - The sales of traditional fuel vehicles declined, with automotive and petroleum products retail sales down by 16.1% and 17.4%, respectively, although the decline was less severe than before [2] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 3.8%, with the growth rate improving by 5.6 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [2]

宏观日报 | 2025-11-18 中游开工延续分化 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）1-10月装备制造业增加值同比增长9.5%，贡献率超过一半，成为拉动工业增长的主引擎。在能源与 关键原材料领域，煤炭等优质产能持续释放以保障能源供应；但另一方面，受全球AI热潮影响，芯片出现供应短 缺和大幅涨价，部分价格较9月上涨高达60%，这为下游相关制造业带来了成本压力。 服务行业： 1）国家外汇管理局公布2025年10月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据，统计数据显示，2025年 10月，银行结汇15194亿元人民币，售汇13940亿元人民币。2025年1-10月，银行累计结汇147941亿元人民币，累计 售汇142201亿元人民币。（2）财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490 亿元，同比增长0.8%；全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。全国政府性基金预算收入34473亿元， 同比下降2.8%；全国政府性基金预算支出80892亿元，同比增长15.4%。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：镍价格回落，铝价格小幅回升。2）黑色：玻 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economic growth is facing challenges, with a decline in social retail sales and an increase in core CPI, suggesting a complex economic environment [2][3][12] - In October, the social retail sales total increased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a continuous decline for five months, while the core CPI rose by 1.2%, indicating a potential turning point in consumer demand [2][8] - Experts highlight a "supply-demand imbalance" in the economy, emphasizing the need for enhanced consumer demand to address the declining retail sales growth [2][12] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to factors such as the consumption stimulus from the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, as well as rising gold prices, with service prices also showing a recovery [7][8] - The core CPI's growth reflects improvements in terminal consumer demand, but it also indicates underlying pressures on food and energy prices, which remain low [13][14] - The overall CPI has been operating at low levels, with experts suggesting that while the core CPI's increase is a positive sign, it is not sufficient to confirm a definitive turning point in the economy [11][12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on job markets, particularly focusing on the decline of entry-level positions and the rise of management roles, indicating a shift in employment dynamics due to AI advancements [5][10][11]. Employment Trends - A baseline is established showing that global job postings are expected to decrease by 8% from 2024 to 2025, indicating a contraction in the job market [11][12]. - The top ten job roles experiencing the largest declines include CG artists, compliance officers, photographers, and writers, with creative positions being particularly affected [14][16]. - Conversely, roles such as software engineering directors and machine learning engineers are seeing significant growth, with machine learning engineers increasing by 39.62% [24][25]. Management vs. Entry-Level Positions - Senior leadership roles have only decreased by 1.7%, while management positions have dropped by 5.7%, indicating that higher-level roles are more resilient to market changes [30][31]. - Entry-level positions have seen a decline of 9%, which is below the overall market contraction, highlighting a troubling trend for new graduates [32][35]. Implications for New Graduates - The article highlights the struggles of recent graduates in securing entry-level jobs, with many positions disappearing and the job market becoming increasingly competitive [43][44]. - The narrative of a recent computer science graduate illustrates the disconnect between qualifications and job availability, emphasizing the challenges faced by young professionals [40][41]. Cultural and Educational Impact - The traditional apprenticeship model, which has been crucial for skill development, is being undermined by AI's efficiency, leading to a potential loss of mentorship and experiential learning opportunities [56][60]. - The story of a carpenter's apprentice serves as a metaphor for the loss of hands-on experience and the nuanced understanding that comes from years of practice, which AI cannot replicate [64][68]. Future Outlook - The article warns that as AI continues to replace entry-level roles, the pathway for young professionals to ascend to management positions may become increasingly obstructed, leading to a homogenized workforce lacking diversity in experience and innovation [92][93]. - The potential for a future where experienced professionals find themselves without successors is highlighted, raising concerns about the sustainability of knowledge transfer and innovation in the industry [94][96].

前几天和多年未见的大学室友小张吃饭，聊到各自的生活状况。他告诉我："这两年真的很拮据，工资几乎原地踏步，孩子上学、父母看病、房贷车贷，每 个月过得紧巴巴的。前段时间冰箱坏了，明明想换个新的，但看了看账户余额，只能找维修工修修凑合着用。"小张的处境让我感同身受，身边越来越多的 朋友都在不约而同地"勒紧裤腰带"。 这种现象并非个例。根据国家统计局发布的数据，2025年上半年社会消费品零售总额同比增长仅为3.2%，比2024年同期下降了1.5个百分点。尤其值得注意 的是，占消费大头的汽车、家电、住房等大宗消费品销售增速明显放缓。汽车消费同比增长1.8%，比去年同期下降3.7个百分点；家电消费同比下降2.5%， 比去年同期扩大了1.3个百分点。 消费研究机构发布的《2025年居民消费意愿调查报告》显示，65%的受访者表示未来半年内会减少非必要消费支出，83%的人表示会推迟大件商品的购买计 划。这些数据直观地反映出当前居民消费意愿的低迷状态。 那么，是什么原因导致老百姓的消费动力不足？通过深入分析，我们发现主要有以下几个因素： 收入增长乏力与就业压力加大。据人力资源和社会保障部门的统计，2025年上半年全国城镇居民人均 ...

Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Iron ore and rebar prices declined [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices rebounded [2] - Energy: International oil prices declined and fluctuated recently [2] Midstream - Chemical: PTA operating rate decreased, urea operating rate increased slightly, and PX operating rate remained stable at a high level [2] - Energy: Coal consumption of power plants was at a low level [2] - Infrastructure: Asphalt operating rate was at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: Seasonal rebound in commercial housing sales in second - and third - tier cities [3] - Services: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [3] Key Events Production Industry - From November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, the US will suspend the implementation of the export control penetration rule [1] Service Industry - The People's Bank of China requires the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain a relatively loose social financing environment [1] Key Price Indicators | Industry | Indicator | Price | YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of eggs | - | +5.69% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 8714.0 yuan/ton | +0.32% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 18.1 yuan/kg | +0.61% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22558.0 yuan/ton | +1.03% | | Non - ferrous metals | Spot price of aluminum | 21503.3 yuan/ton | +0.25% | | | Spot price of nickel | 122233.3 yuan/ton | +0.01% | | Black metals | Spot price of rebar | 3133.0 yuan/ton | -1.42% | | | Spot price of iron ore | 789.4 yuan/ton | -3.25% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 14675.0 yuan/ton | +0.69% | | Energy | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 59.8 dollars/barrel | -2.02% | | | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 63.6 dollars/barrel | -2.21% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 4242.0 yuan/ton | -1.81% | | | Coal price | 826.0 yuan/ton | +1.10% | | Chemical | Spot price of PTA | 4645.7 yuan/ton | +1.91% | | | Spot price of urea | 1627.5 yuan/ton | +2.36% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1207.9 yuan/ton | +0.30% | | Real estate | Building materials composite index | 112.0 points | -0.88% | | | Concrete price index | 90.9 points | -0.10% | [37]

封面新闻记者 赖芳杰 11月11日，随着第17年"双11"购物节拉开帷幕，促销周期再度延长，但市场热度并未同步升温。 成都消费者的消费行为有何变化？市民倾向的新消费模式有何特点？仲量联行中国区零售地产及消费研究负责人朱建辉在接受封面新闻专访时表示，这一 现象并非消费疲软的信号，而是中国消费结构深度转型的体现：消费者行为日趋理性，商品零售增长放缓，而以体验、服务为核心的新消费模式正成为拉 动内需的关键力量。在成都，这一趋势已清晰映射于实体商业的业态更迭与空间重构之中。 金牛区上新桥公园改造的"绿里"，吸引年轻人加入 图据掌上金牛 消费逻辑转变： "性价比"取代"冲动购" 这一判断在成都蓬勃发展的新商业场景中得到印证。据仲量联行最新发布的2025年第三季度成都商业及物流地产市场报告显示，成都商业业态结构正迎来 新一轮升级。今年前三季度，体验业态在新租交易中占比已达26.6%，成为推动市场活力的重要力量。 报告指出，以攀岩馆、网球馆为代表的运动场馆持续受到消费者青睐，不仅有效带动人流，也促进了商业空间的去化，进而激发了运营商对运动主题空间 的探索热情。年内亮相的"绿里GREENMILE"——由金牛区上新桥公园改造而 ...

11月10日，第八届中国国际进口博览会在上海落下帷幕。本届进博会参展企业数量再创历史新高，充分 彰显中国市场的蓬勃生机和吸引力。这场盛会也促使各方更加深入思考全球最大消费市场应有的蕴涵： 这个市场不仅要体现强大的经济实力，更应注重其内在结构与外部责任的平衡，进而成为全球经济增长 稳定的核心引擎。 巨大的市场力量也意味着重大的责任担当。全球最大消费市场需引导可持续消费，推动绿色、低碳、循 环的消费模式。例如，中国的以旧换新政策不仅刺激了消费，也推动了绿色智能产品的普及，促进了环 保理念的落实。同时，消费增长的成果应惠及更广泛人群，促进包容性增长。中国县域消费市场的快速 崛起，农村消费增速持续高于城镇，正是消费包容性增长的体现。此外，市场还需在规范竞争、保护消 费者权益方面发挥标杆作用，确保增长的质量与公平。 全球消费市场的图景仍在动态演变中。中国凭借超14亿人口的广阔内需基础，沉稳而坚定的发展步调， 不久之后有望在总规模上成为全球最大消费市场。更要看到，规模的超越仅是表象，更深层次的竞争在 于发展质量。全球最大消费市场需在开放与保护、创新与规范、增长与可持续之间找到平衡，能够让全 球消费者对该市场有稳定预期，让 ...