Core Insights - India's energy security is critically dependent on oil imports, with 90% of its oil sourced from abroad, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil prices [2][3] - The Indian government is facing significant economic challenges, with GDP growth hitting a ten-year low of 4.1% in Q1 2025, partly due to the ongoing energy crisis exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [3][5] - The Modi administration's "Make in India" initiative is under threat from U.S. demands for increased local content in exports, which the current manufacturing capabilities cannot meet [5][6] Energy Dependency - India relies heavily on Russian oil, with the share of Russian crude in its imports rising from 30% to 35%, despite claims of diversifying sources [2] - The cost of switching suppliers from Russian oil could reach $2 billion due to the need for significant modifications to refining infrastructure [2] - India's attempts to diversify its oil imports have been largely ineffective, as evidenced by the increase in reliance on Russian oil despite claims of expanding supplier diversity [2] Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. has increased pressure on India regarding its trade practices, threatening tariffs on Indian exports unless they meet stringent local content requirements [5] - India's trade with China and Russia has grown, with trade with China reaching $118.4 billion in 2024, indicating a shift in economic alliances amidst U.S. pressures [6] - The Indian government is caught in a complex geopolitical situation, attempting to balance relations with the U.S., China, and Russia while facing internal economic challenges [6][7] Strategic Responses - India has shown contradictory diplomatic behavior, criticizing China for expansionism while simultaneously seeking to revive trilateral cooperation with China and Russia [6][7] - The Indian government is exploring ways to mitigate U.S. pressures and the energy crisis, including potential adjustments to investment scrutiny for Chinese firms [7] - The strategy of maintaining a balance between the U.S. and Russia while addressing domestic energy needs remains uncertain and fraught with risks [9][10]