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今年中国出口拉动来自哪?【宏观视界第27期】
一瑜中的· 2025-08-26 01:44
Group 1: EU Trade Dynamics - The recovery of China's exports to the EU is not significantly impacted by US imports from the EU, as the two trends do not synchronize. China's exports to the EU have been gradually increasing since March, while US imports surged prior to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [4][6]. - The rebound in China's exports to the EU aligns with the recovery of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.5% in August from 49.8% in July, marking the first time in three years it surpassed the growth threshold [4][6]. Group 2: ASEAN Trade Trends - China's exports to ASEAN have shown strong performance, likely influenced by transshipment trade. The growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN has remained high since April, mirroring the increase in US imports from ASEAN [4][7]. - Recent data indicates that transshipment trade may have stabilized at a high level, lacking further upward momentum. While US imports from ASEAN increased by 37.1% year-on-year in June, China's export growth to ASEAN has been fluctuating, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6% in July, significantly lower than the US growth rate [4][7]. Group 3: African Trade Insights - The strong growth in China's exports to Africa is not primarily driven by transshipment trade, as the scale of trade between China and Africa vastly exceeds that of the US. China's monthly exports to Africa are approximately $19 billion, while US imports from Africa are only around $3 billion [5]. - The increase in China's export growth to Africa is mainly attributed to vehicles and auto parts, suggesting a lower correlation with US demand cycles and tariff fluctuations. The sustainability of this growth remains to be observed [5][9].