Group 1: EU Trade Dynamics - The recovery of China's exports to the EU is not significantly impacted by US imports from the EU, as the two trends do not synchronize. China's exports to the EU have been gradually increasing since March, while US imports surged prior to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [4][6]. - The rebound in China's exports to the EU aligns with the recovery of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.5% in August from 49.8% in July, marking the first time in three years it surpassed the growth threshold [4][6]. Group 2: ASEAN Trade Trends - China's exports to ASEAN have shown strong performance, likely influenced by transshipment trade. The growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN has remained high since April, mirroring the increase in US imports from ASEAN [4][7]. - Recent data indicates that transshipment trade may have stabilized at a high level, lacking further upward momentum. While US imports from ASEAN increased by 37.1% year-on-year in June, China's export growth to ASEAN has been fluctuating, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6% in July, significantly lower than the US growth rate [4][7]. Group 3: African Trade Insights - The strong growth in China's exports to Africa is not primarily driven by transshipment trade, as the scale of trade between China and Africa vastly exceeds that of the US. China's monthly exports to Africa are approximately $19 billion, while US imports from Africa are only around $3 billion [5]. - The increase in China's export growth to Africa is mainly attributed to vehicles and auto parts, suggesting a lower correlation with US demand cycles and tariff fluctuations. The sustainability of this growth remains to be observed [5][9].

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[3] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is below the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade, indicating a weaker performance compared to historical trends[4] - The resilience of exports is notable despite the significant tariffs imposed by the US, with cumulative year-on-year growth reaching 6.1% as of July, surpassing the 5.8% growth expected for 2024[7] Group 2: Import Dynamics - July imports also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, significantly higher than the forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[6] - The primary contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits, with "other unspecified goods" contributing 4.5 percentage points to the import growth[6] - The sustainability of this import growth remains uncertain, particularly as commodity prices decline and manufacturing PMI import indices remain below the threshold, indicating potential downward pressure on future import growth[6] Group 3: Regional Export Insights - The strongest export growth was observed in three regions: ASEAN, Africa, and the EU, which collectively contributed 6 percentage points to the year-on-year export growth in July[4] - Exports to the EU have been recovering in line with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, with growth rates for exports to the EU maintaining around 9%-10% since March[7] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, particularly in vehicles and parts, with year-on-year growth soaring from 52.3% in April to 82.9% in June, significantly boosting overall export performance to Africa[6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall outlook for exports suggests potential adjustments in the second half of the year, with external demand expected to slow down and the impact of high base effects in the fourth quarter likely to exert downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[6] - Leading indicators from G7 countries suggest that China's export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with a potential slowdown to 0%-2% in the latter half[6] - The combination of external demand pressures and high base effects could lead to a challenging environment for maintaining current export growth levels[6]

Export Performance - In July, China's exports in USD terms increased by 7.2% year-on-year, slightly below the forecast of 7.5% but above Bloomberg's expectation of 5.4%[1] - The month-on-month export growth was -1.1%, which is significantly lower than the historical average of approximately 3.3% over the past decade[3] - The strong export performance is supported by a low base effect from July of the previous year, which saw a month-on-month decline of 2.3%[12] Import Performance - July imports in USD terms rose by 4.1%, exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of -1% and the previous month's growth of 1.1%[1] - The main contributors to the import growth were raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil, copper ore, and integrated circuits[2] - The category of "other unspecified goods" significantly contributed to import growth, adding 4.5 percentage points in July compared to 2 percentage points in June[40] Regional Export Insights - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU were particularly strong, contributing a combined 6 percentage points to the overall export growth in July[15] - The EU's recovery in manufacturing is closely linked to the increase in exports, with a consistent growth rate of 9%-10% from March to July[17] - Exports to Africa showed the highest growth, driven mainly by vehicles and parts, with a year-on-year increase of 82.9% in June[26] Future Outlook - External demand is expected to slow down, with the global manufacturing PMI new export orders index dropping from 49.1% in June to 48.5% in July[34] - The third quarter is anticipated to have a low base effect, while the fourth quarter may face higher comparative figures, potentially leading to downward pressure on year-on-year growth rates[35] - Overall, export growth for the year is projected to be between 3% and 4%, with the second half of the year likely seeing growth rates of 0% to 2%[34]

Core Viewpoints - In July, China's export growth rate exceeded Bloomberg's consensus expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, slightly below the company's forecast of 7.5% but higher than the previous value of 5.9% [2][4] - The resilience of exports is supported by low base effects and driven by three key regions: ASEAN, EU, and Africa, which may continue to provide unexpected strength against US tariff pressures [4][6] - Import growth in July significantly surpassed expectations, primarily driven by raw materials and intermediate goods, including crude oil and integrated circuits, indicating potential future pressures on import demand [4][11] Group 1: Trade Data Observations - July's export data aligns closely with the company's expectations, with a year-on-year increase supported by a low base from the previous year, while the month-on-month figure fell below the historical average [6][12] - The resilience of exports is notable given the backdrop of significant US tariff increases, with cumulative export growth remaining robust despite potential "export rush" factors [6][16] - The overall external demand may face downward pressure in the second half of the year, compounded by the potential for a decline in import demand [9][10] Group 2: Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa have shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall export performance in July [7][17] - The recovery in EU exports aligns with the manufacturing cycle in the Eurozone, while ASEAN exports may be influenced by transshipment trade dynamics [20][23] - African exports have been particularly strong, driven by vehicle and parts exports, indicating a divergence from trends seen in other regions [26][29] Group 3: Export Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to face adjustments due to external demand slowing and high base effects in the fourth quarter [9][34] - Leading indicators suggest that export growth may range between 3%-4% for the year, with potential declines in the second half [10][34] Group 4: Import Performance - July's import growth rate of 4.1% significantly exceeded expectations, driven by various categories including crude oil and integrated circuits [38][60] - The contribution to import growth primarily came from unlisted other goods, indicating a potential reliance on specific categories for sustained growth [11][39] - Future import growth may face challenges due to declining commodity prices and ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector [39][63]