Group 1: EU Trade Dynamics - The recovery of China's exports to the EU is not significantly impacted by US imports from the EU, as the two trends do not synchronize. China's exports to the EU have been gradually increasing since March, while US imports surged prior to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [4][6]. - The rebound in China's exports to the EU aligns with the recovery of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which rose to 50.5% in August from 49.8% in July, marking the first time in three years it surpassed the growth threshold [4][6]. Group 2: ASEAN Trade Trends - China's exports to ASEAN have shown strong performance, likely influenced by transshipment trade. The growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN has remained high since April, mirroring the increase in US imports from ASEAN [4][7]. - Recent data indicates that transshipment trade may have stabilized at a high level, lacking further upward momentum. While US imports from ASEAN increased by 37.1% year-on-year in June, China's export growth to ASEAN has been fluctuating, with a year-on-year increase of 16.6% in July, significantly lower than the US growth rate [4][7]. Group 3: African Trade Insights - The strong growth in China's exports to Africa is not primarily driven by transshipment trade, as the scale of trade between China and Africa vastly exceeds that of the US. China's monthly exports to Africa are approximately $19 billion, while US imports from Africa are only around $3 billion [5]. - The increase in China's export growth to Africa is mainly attributed to vehicles and auto parts, suggesting a lower correlation with US demand cycles and tariff fluctuations. The sustainability of this growth remains to be observed [5][9].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） #出口系列 报告 20240603-全球制造业PMI回暖视角下的2024出口——出口扫描系列·机会篇 20240604-全球风险与中国挑战——出口扫描系列·风险篇 20240909-特朗普新关税主张对中国出口影响可能有多大？ —— 出口扫描系列·复盘篇 20240910-若美国挑起新一轮贸易战，与2018年有何异同？ —— 出口扫描系列·对比篇 20250118-找寻出口商品的"稳定之星" —— 出口扫描系列·变局篇 20250511-张瑜：出口不确定性的"β、α"二分法 20250607-不止是"出口" —— 中国出口研判进阶手册 核心观点 本篇作为出口深度思考系列第一篇，旨在帮助出口研究人员解决其通常面对的三个"灵魂"问题：这个月出口增速如何？过去几个月出口中抢进口、转港、异 动怎么"回头"定量？今年出口增速中枢怎么看？为了解答这三个问题，我们遍历中国出口相关的 40 余指标，尝试为每个问题构建最实用的跟踪体系。 报告摘要 一、问题之一：近月预测怎么做？ ...