Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 13, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy in autumn, with a high probability of rate cuts. China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing is growing steadily. Although PPI decline has widened, prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. In the nickel market, refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation, the shortage of nickel ore supply has eased, sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak oscillation, and the improvement of medium - and long - term demand needs further data verification. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, presenting the historical closing prices of nickel futures main contracts from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines into China, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Shows the price trends of domestic and imported 1 electrolytic nickel (Ni99.90) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price - Presents the average price trends of sulfuric acid nickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel Price, Futures Position, and Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory - **Stainless Steel Price**: Shows the closing price trends of stainless steel futures (continuous) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Displays the position volume trends of stainless steel futures from 2020 - 2025, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 hands [23][24] - **Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Presents the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel from 2020 - 2025, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production volume of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production volume in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline of PPI in June widened by 0.3 percentage points, but prices of some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36]