伦敦金属交易所（LME）2月12日伦镍库存报286386吨，较前一交易日库存量增加636吨。 长江镍业网讯：今日沪镍期货全线低开；主力月2603合约开盘报138100跌2220，9：10分沪镍主力2603 合约报135750跌4570；沪期镍开盘低开低走，盘面维持弱势震荡；宏观面，隔夜金属市场遭遇"宏观风 暴"与"资金离场"的双重冲击。美国异常强劲的就业数据与潜在的鹰派美联储主席提名，彻底扭转了市 场的降息预期，推动美元走强、美债收益率攀升，直接压制了金属的金融属性。与此同时，美股科技股 暴跌引发全球风险资产抛售潮，叠加中国春节长假前资金集中避险离场，共同触发了工业金属的广泛下 跌。这场由政策预期突变、风险偏好骤降及季节性流动性收紧引发的共振下跌，标志着市场逻辑正从宽 松交易向高利率现实迅速切换。今日镍价将下调。 春节前镍供需：双淡格局，观望为主 春节前，镍市场呈现供需双淡的格局，整体氛围以观望为主。供应端，海外镍矿供应预期转向宽松，而 国内冶炼厂生产维持稳定，市场现货流通量充足，不存在明显的供应短缺矛盾。需求侧则显著走弱，下 游不锈钢厂因假期因素已陆续进入停产放假阶段，对原料的采购基本停滞；尽管新能源领域对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is currently facing dual pressures from macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics, leading to a significant decline in nickel prices [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract for March 2603 open at 133,500 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 134,560 CNY/ton and a low of 129,300 CNY/ton, ultimately closing at 131,840 CNY/ton, down 3,540 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.61% [1]. - The average price of 1 nickel on February 6 was reported at 136,650 CNY/ton, down 2,700 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The nickel market is characterized by a "supply increase and demand stagnation" scenario, with global refined nickel production capacity continuing to expand and LME inventories remaining high [2]. - Downstream industries, including stainless steel and new energy battery sectors, have halted procurement due to the Spring Festival holiday, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [2]. - The market is experiencing a liquidity contraction as midstream traders lower prices to accelerate sales, but the lack of downstream demand results in poor transaction volumes [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The short-term outlook for nickel prices remains weak, with expectations of further declines as the market tests key support levels [2].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel futures market is experiencing significant downward pressure due to changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, leading to a decline in prices across global markets [1][2]. Market Performance - The latest closing price for London nickel (LME) is $17,060, down $270 per ton, a decrease of 1.56%, with a trading volume of 8,626 contracts [1]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel main contract (2603) closed at 134,250 yuan per ton, down 1,130 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.83% [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The nickel market is characterized by "oversupply and demand vacuum" ahead of the Spring Festival, with downstream industries like stainless steel and new energy battery manufacturers halting production and procurement [2]. - LME nickel inventory stands at 286,071 tons, a decrease of 240 tons from the previous day, while global refined nickel production has increased by 22.8% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Chain Status - The entire nickel industry chain is in a state of dormancy, with upstream mining prices high but lacking domestic demand, and downstream processing enterprises experiencing a sharp decline in operating rates [3]. Short-term Price Forecast - The main contract for Shanghai nickel is expected to test the key support level of 130,000 yuan per ton, with multiple pressures from macroeconomic factors, weak fundamentals, and policy adjustments making price increases difficult [4]. - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, with light or no positions during the holiday, while traders should adopt a quick in-and-out strategy [4]. - Post-holiday, the focus will shift back to fundamentals, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics as downstream production resumes, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [4].

Group 1 - The Chinese Consul General in Surabaya, Ye Su, visited the Weda Bay Industrial Park in North Maluku Province, holding a meeting with enterprises and expressing concern for employees [1][3] - Ye Su conducted an on-site inspection of factory facilities, receiving briefings on industrial layout, project construction, and safety production, and praised the park's high-quality development [3] - The Weda Bay Industrial Park, led by Qingshan Holding and focusing on the nickel industry chain, opened in 2018 and became one of the nine national strategic industrial parks outside Java Island in Indonesia in 2020 [3] Group 2 - The park is recognized for its positive role in promoting local economic and social development, implementing the "Belt and Road" initiative, and advancing bilateral practical cooperation [3] - Ye Su emphasized the importance of integrating enterprise development into national strategy, adhering to compliant operations, prioritizing safety production, and safeguarding employee rights [3] - The park is encouraged to actively fulfill social responsibilities and contribute to deepening the China-Indonesia community of shared future [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced a significant decline due to a combination of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and industry-specific pressures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market saw a sharp drop, with the main contract closing at 129,650 yuan/ton, down 16,030 yuan/ton, representing an 11% decrease [1]. - The average price of nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 140,150 yuan/ton, down 5,700 yuan from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a clash between long-term expectations of supply tightening due to Indonesia's nickel quota policies and the current reality of high inventory levels, which are suppressing prices [2]. - Global refined nickel inventories have reached multi-year highs, contributing to a surplus in the spot market [2]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - Demand for nickel is facing short-term difficulties, particularly in the stainless steel and new energy sectors, which are experiencing a slowdown ahead of the Chinese New Year [3]. - The acceptance of high-cost raw materials by downstream processors is low, further exacerbating the demand issue [3]. Group 4: Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry is transitioning from a policy-driven market to one focused on fundamental realities, with upstream and downstream sectors adjusting to high inventory and weak demand [4]. - The midstream smelting sector is under pressure from accumulating finished product inventories, impacting profit margins [4]. Group 5: Spot Market Sentiment - The spot market is characterized by cautious trading, with traders maintaining stable quotes and limited selling intentions, although some downstream users are beginning to replenish stocks at lower prices [5]. Group 6: Price Forecast - Nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with macroeconomic risk aversion and high inventory levels dominating the market [6][7]. - A stabilization in prices will depend on the digestion of macroeconomic negative sentiment and improvements in demand following the resumption of industrial activities post-holiday [7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：风险偏好调整，铜价高位下修 上周五晚沪铜主力跌4.75%至103190元，伦铜下跌至13050美元附近。 宏观中性偏空。特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席，降息预期减弱，加之贵金属回调幅度扩大，带动有色板块普遍下跌。 基本面中性偏多。上周全球铜库存升至103.1万吨，其中境内铜小幅去库0.16万吨至33.2万吨，LME铜累库约0.45万吨至17.5万吨，COMEX铜延续大幅累库 1.37万吨至52.4万吨。 总体来看，市场风险偏好调整短时间内对铜价带来压力，但金属自身供应约束偏强，价格下跌空间或有限。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10万-10.45万元/吨。 策略上，节前区间为主，卖深虚看涨期权继续持有；中长线等待低点布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Short - term tin prices fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment. After the sentiment stabilizes, considering the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy can be attempted [1]. Copper - In the short term, copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97,500 - 98,500 [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices will be mainly volatile in the short term. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported mines and negative feedback from the demand side [9]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in production and demand [12]. Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see. Downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to orders [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, with the main reference range at 138,000 - 148,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main reference range at 13,800 - 14,500. Pay attention to mine - end news and downstream stocking [16]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The main contract reference range is 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price may be adjusted widely, with the main reference range at 140,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. Short - term unilateral trading within the range is recommended [19]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main reference range at 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 5.86% to 389,800 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 33.33% to 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81% month - on - month; in December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 36.07% [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.90% to 100,940 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference increased by 1.58% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80% month - on - month; in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 12.27% week - on - week; LME inventory increased by 2.68% day - on - day [4][6]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.53% to 24,420 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24% month - on - month; in November, the export volume increased by 402.59% [9]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.13% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 1.38% day - on - day [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 37.21% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15% month - on - month; Xinjiang's production increased by 6.46% [12]. - **Inventory**: Xinjiang's inventory increased by 2.91% month - on - month; social inventory increased by 0.54% week - on - week [12]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.27% to 55,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 3.33% [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of polysilicon increased by 0.79% month - on - month; the import volume decreased by 27.05% [13]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% week - on - week; silicon wafer inventory decreased by 5.53% [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.31% to 145,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 20.77% [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month; the import volume increased by 30.08% [14]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% week - on - week; social inventory increased by 4.04% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.35% to 14,300 yuan/ton; the premium decreased by 32.65% [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month; the export volume increased by 13.18% [16]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% week - on - week; SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.67% to 23,870 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 20 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08% month - on - month; the import volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.83% in November [18]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 2.60% week - on - week; LME inventory decreased by 0.61% day - on - day [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 4.43% to 151,000 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 68.31% [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04% month - on - month; the demand decreased by 2.50% [19]. - **Inventory**: In December, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 12.23% month - on - month; the downstream inventory decreased by 7.21% [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,900 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference in Foshan decreased by 6.12% [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46% [21]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.41% week - on - week; the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.76% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Tin - Short - term price is highly volatile due to market sentiment. After a sharp decline on Friday night, it's advisable to be cautious in the short - term. Consider a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [1]. Copper - In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. In the short - term, the price is strong because of global inventory structural imbalance and supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak. With the cooling of speculative sentiment and easing of tariff expectations, the price may return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium and LME inventory changes, with the main contract supported at 97500 - 98500 [3]. Nickel - Recent trading is centered around macro and Indonesian ore RKAB quota. Short - term ore news has limited further driving force. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135000 - 145000 [5]. Zinc - The price is supported by domestic ore shortage and pressured by expected imported ore supply and negative demand feedback. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Focus on zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract supported around 23800 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals show some resilience in the off - season. With a loose macro environment and strengthened supervision, there is resistance to further price increases. The market has intensified long - short divergence. The short - term market may adjust widely, with the main contract running between 140,000 - 150,000. Use short - term range trading [11]. Aluminum - Alumina prices lack upward momentum due to loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract in the range of 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to domestic inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, and overseas monetary policies and geopolitical events [13]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term price range is limited. The ADC12 price is expected to continue high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Focus on raw material price changes, actual inflow of imported goods, and downstream pre - holiday inventory building [15]. Stainless Steel - Raw material news drives sentiment and strengthens cost support. Social inventory is steadily digested, but downstream demand in the off - season is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 13800 - 14500. Pay attention to ore news and downstream inventory building [18]. Polysilicon - The demand outlook has improved due to export - grabbing demand, and there is an expectation of supply reduction. The price is supported at 48,000 yuan/ton. Component production may increase, which is beneficial for inventory digestion. In the cooling period, it's advisable to wait and see, and focus on later production cuts and downstream demand recovery [20]. Industrial Silicon - The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, with low - level oscillation. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to supply - side production changes and potential further polysilicon production cuts [21]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.81% to 414050 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 78.57% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and refined tin imports increased by 127.19%. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory increased by 37.69% to 9549 tons, and social inventory increased by 36.07% to 10175 tons [1]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 101855 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased significantly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons. In November, imports decreased by 3.90% [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory increased by 17.20% to 32.09 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [3]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.47% to 149350 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 74.48% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel increased by 1.09% to 112237 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory increased by 3.28% to 48180 tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.16% to 285732 tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 2.40% to 24800 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons. In November, exports increased by 402.59% [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventory decreased slightly, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 0.08% to 11.84 million tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.63% to 158000 yuan/ton, and the basis increased significantly [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99200 tons, and demand decreased by 2.50% [11]. - **Inventory**: Total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56664 tons in December [11]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.66% to 24030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08% to 751.96 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [13]. - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.08% to 73.60 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.41% to 48.8 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.42% to 23900 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined price difference decreased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price decreased by 0.35% to 14350 yuan/ton, and the spot - futures price difference increased [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: N - type polysilicon average price increased slightly, and the basis of N - type material decreased by 23.52% [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 9.66% to 2.15 million tons, and monthly net exports increased significantly [20]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 6.29% to 32.1 million tons [20]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged, and the basis increased [21]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and exports increased by 21.78% [21]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [21].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing a significant decline due to a combination of high inventory levels, weak demand, and macroeconomic pressures, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 19, the Shanghai nickel futures market saw the main contract close at 142,320 CNY/ton, down 2,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.42% [1]. - The average price for 1 nickel in the Changjiang market was reported at 146,400 CNY/ton, down 2,100 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and strong economic data have dampened expectations for early interest rate cuts, maintaining a high USD index that pressures commodity prices, including nickel [2]. - Structural monetary policies in China have been implemented, but their impact on real demand is delayed, particularly during the traditional off-season [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is facing a significant contradiction between high inventory levels and weak demand, with global visible inventories at high levels indicating a loose supply situation [3]. - The traditional stainless steel sector, which constitutes a major part of nickel consumption, is currently in a seasonal downturn, leading to low purchasing willingness for high-cost raw materials [3]. Group 4: Industry Chain and Market Sentiment - Profit distribution within the industry is shifting towards upstream resource sectors, while downstream sectors face pressure from high costs and weak orders, resulting in a narrow profit margin [4]. - The market is characterized by low trading activity and declining premiums, as traders are eager to sell while downstream buyers only engage in essential purchases [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to remain weak in the short term as the market seeks to digest high inventory pressures and await clear signs of demand recovery [5]. - Despite the current price adjustments, the long-term fundamentals remain intact, supported by the ongoing supply contraction from Indonesia and structural demand growth from the energy transition [5].