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特朗普:俄乌总统若不会晤或有“严重后果”!伊朗与英法德将开启新一轮会谈!美联储“鸽”派转向,贵金属价格上行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 23:41
早上好!先来看看重要资讯。 特朗普称尚未讨论对乌安全保障细节 当地时间8月25日,美国总统特朗普表示,俄罗斯总统普京和乌克兰总统泽连斯基应该会面。 他表示,如果普京和泽连斯基不举行会晤,可能就会有"严重后果";美国或将在一两周后介入。 泽连斯基:乌美团队将于本周末会谈,讨论乌俄和谈可能性 据新华社报道,乌克兰总统泽连斯基25日说,乌克兰和美国双方团队将于本周末举行会谈,讨论乌俄双 方举行和平谈判的可能性。 泽连斯基当天在基辅与到访的挪威首相斯特勒举行会晤。据乌克兰国际文传电讯社报道,泽连斯基在会 晤后的联合记者会上说,他将会见正在乌访问的美国乌克兰事务特使凯洛格,乌方本周末还将与美方团 队举行会谈。 特朗普称"不知道他们是否会会面"。 特朗普当天还表示,围绕美国如何参与对乌克兰安全保障的相关细节尚未讨论,但美国将以"后援"形式 协助欧洲发挥主要作用。 特朗普当天是在白宫接受媒体采访时作出上述表示的。他说,俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突是他打算解决的多 场冲突中"最容易"的一场。俄乌冲突涉及一些"严重的个性冲突",但美方"会让这种情况结束"。 特朗普还说,在上周白宫举行美乌欧领导人系列会晤后,他与俄罗斯总统普京通电话,两 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:53
2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金:JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银:冲顶前高 | 2 | | 铜:美元回落,价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌:区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡:区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝:累库放缓 | 11 | | 氧化铝:横盘小涨 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍:窄幅区间震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢:短线低位震荡 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 黄金:JH 会议鲍威尔放鸽 白银:冲顶前高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:10
国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年08月25日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金:JH会议鲍威尔放鸽 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:冲顶前高 | 3 | | 铜:美元回落,价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌:区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡:区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝:累库放缓 | 12 | | 氧化铝:横盘小涨 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金:跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍:窄幅区间震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢:短线低位震荡 | 14 | | 碳酸锂:宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅:市场情绪提振 | 18 | | 多晶硅:区间震荡,以逢低做多为主 | 18 | | 铁矿石:短期估值仍有来自宏微观的支撑 | 20 | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅:宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木:震荡反复 | 28 | | 对 ...
美联储 9 月降息概率达 90.7%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 05:31
http://www.shijianfazhan.cn/jingji/378.html 自美联储开启货币政策调整周期以来,其每一次决策都牵动着全球金融市场的神经。此前,美联储为应 对通胀压力,连续多次加息,将联邦基金利率提升至较高水平。然而,近期美国经济数据出现了一系列 变化,通胀指标呈现出一定程度的缓和趋势,同时就业市场的增长动能也有所减弱。这些经济数据的演 变,成为市场预期美联储降息的重要依据。 从通胀角度来看,美国核心个人消费支出价格指数已降至 2.9%,这一数据的回落,让市场看到了通胀 压力逐步缓解的希望,也为美联储货币政策转向提供了空间。在就业方面,尽管失业率仍处于相对低 位,但新增就业人数的增速放缓,且居民储蓄率降至 3.4%,为 2022 年 12 月以来最低水平,显示出居 民消费动力或因储蓄减少而受到影响,经济增长的可持续性面临一定挑战。在此背景下,市场普遍认为 美联储有必要通过降息来刺激经济,降低企业融资成本,提升居民消费意愿,以维持经济的稳定增长。 对于全球金融市场而言,美联储的货币政策走向具有深远影响。若 9 月美联储如市场预期般降息,首先 将对美元汇率产生冲击,美元可能因利率下行而面临 ...
降息3次?!美联储,大消息!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-10 09:33
美联储副主席米歇尔.鲍曼的最新讲话释放重磅信号。 当地时间8月9日,鲍曼在美联储官网上发文称,她支持年内三次降息,并指出这一立场因美国近期疲弱的劳动力市场数据 而得到强化。鲍曼还呼吁美联储在9月会议上开始降息。 她表示,这将有助于避免劳动力市场出现进一步不必要的恶化,并降低在劳动力市场进一步恶化时,委员会不得不采取更 大幅度政策纠偏的可能性。 而早在当地时间8月4日,旧金山联储主席戴利表示,鉴于越来越多的证据表明就业市场正在疲软,且没有迹象显示关税通 胀持续存在,降息时机已经临近。戴利称,年内进行两次25个基点的降息看起来仍然是一个适当的重新调整,重要的是是 否在9月和12月都降息,而不是降息是否会发生。 高盛预计美联储将从9月份开始连续三次降息25个基点,若下一份报告中失业率进一步上升,则可能降息50个基点。 数据显示,7月当月就业岗位增长总计7.3万个,高于6月的1.4万个,但低于道琼斯10万个增长预期。6月和5月的总数被大幅 向下修正,其中6月的新增就业人数从之前公布的向下调整13.3万,而5月的人数向下调整12.5万,两个月合计向下调整了 25.8万个职位。 疲软的就业报告,包括大幅下修的数据,显示就 ...
非农数据“爆冷” 美联储9月降息几成定局?
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-08-03 01:56
【环球网财经综合报道】一份意外疲软的就业报告如同一颗重磅炸弹,在金融市场激起千层浪,市场热议去年"7月按兵不动、9月大幅降息"的剧 本是否会再度上演。素有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos以及知名经济学家El-Erian均指出,当前场景似曾相识,让市场对美联储后续货币 政策走向高度关注。 本周,美联储刚刚宣布维持利率不变,然而周五公布的7月非农就业数据却给市场泼了一盆冷水。数据显示,美国劳动力市场正以惊人的速度降 温,新增就业人数远低于预期。更为关键的是,前两个月的就业人数被大幅下修,这一调整深刻揭示了美国经济潜在的疲弱程度,使得美联储此 前维持利率不变的观望立场面临严峻考验。 劳动力市场一直是美联储评估经济健康状况和制定货币政策的重要参考指标。此次非农数据的惨淡表现,无疑为美联储敲响了警钟。就业市场的 疲软可能预示着消费支出将受到抑制,进而影响整体经济增长。在通胀压力有所缓解的背景下,就业市场的恶化进一步增加了美联储调整货币政 策的紧迫性。 面对这份疲软的就业报告,贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官Rick Rieder直言不讳地表示:"今天的报告提供了美联储9月份调整利率所需的证据, 因此唯一的 ...
国信期货有色(镍)周报:底部区间,震荡回升-20250713
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-13 03:14
Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated July 13, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to adjust monetary policy in autumn, with a high probability of rate cuts. China's manufacturing PMI has been rising for two consecutive months, and consumer goods manufacturing is growing steadily. Although PPI decline has widened, prices in some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. In the nickel market, refined nickel is in a supply - surplus situation, the shortage of nickel ore supply has eased, sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel is in a weak oscillation, and the improvement of medium - and long - term demand needs further data verification. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of domestic and foreign main nickel futures contracts, presenting the historical closing prices of nickel futures main contracts from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with data sourced from WIND and Guoxin Futures [7][8][9] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines into China, with data from WIND, Mysteel, and Guoxin Futures [12][13][14] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Shows the price trends of domestic and imported 1 electrolytic nickel (Ni99.90) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price - Presents the average price trends of sulfuric acid nickel in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel, with data from WIND and Guoxin Futures [19][20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel Price, Futures Position, and Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory - **Stainless Steel Price**: Shows the closing price trends of stainless steel futures (continuous) from 2020 - 2025, with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless Steel Futures Position**: Displays the position volume trends of stainless steel futures from 2020 - 2025, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 hands [23][24] - **Wuxi Stainless Steel Inventory**: Presents the inventory trends of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel from 2020 - 2025, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production volume of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and total production volume in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production volume of new energy vehicles in China from 2020 - 2025, with the production volume range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] 3. Future Outlook - Based on CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 7.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.8%. China's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The decline of PPI in June widened by 0.3 percentage points, but prices of some industries are showing signs of stabilization and recovery. The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 116,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless steel main contract in the range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [36]
2025年非农数据时间表全解析:黄金投资者的“作战手册”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 07:06
Core Insights - The non-farm payroll (NFP) data release schedule for 2025 is crucial for investors, as it significantly impacts the gold market, especially amid current Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments [1] - Understanding the economic logic and transmission mechanisms behind the NFP report is key to enhancing investment success rates [1] Group 1: NFP Data Release Schedule - The NFP data will be released on specific dates in 2025, with the first release on January 10 at 21:30 for December data [2] - Subsequent releases will occur on February 7, March 7, April 4, May 2, June 6, July 3, August 1, September 5, October 3, November 7, and December 5, with the July release moved to Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday [2] Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors should focus on three key time points around the NFP release: 30 minutes before the release, 15 minutes after the release, and 1 hour after the release to gauge market reactions [1] - For risk-averse investors, it is advisable to close positions before the data release and wait for clearer trends, while experienced traders can leverage short-term volatility through buying or selling gold products [1] - The platform, Lingfeng Precious Metals, offers real-time information and trading services to help investors navigate market fluctuations following the NFP data release [2]
中概股大涨,美股全线上扬!鲍威尔发声
新华网财经· 2025-06-25 01:23
中概股大涨 美东时间6月24日,美股三大指数集体收涨。Wind数据显示,截至收盘,道指涨1.19%,纳指涨1.43%, 标普500指数涨1.11%。 美东时间6月24日,美股市场情绪提振,三大指数集体收涨。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨3.31%;国际原油价格大跌,贵金属价格纷纷下挫。 据央视新闻报道,当地时间6月24日,美联储主席鲍威尔汇报半年度货币政策工作。鲍威尔表示,目 前,美联储有条件在"观望"进一步经济走势预测后,再考虑对政策立场进行调整。 | 资料 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | III | | 小马智行 | 13.260 | 16.73% | | | PONY.O | | | | | 禾赛科技 | 20.780 | 14.05% | | | HSAI.O | | | | | 新东方 | 55.504 | 13.16% | | | EDU.N | | | | | 灿谷 | 4.450 | 8.54% | | | CANG.N | | | | | NEXT TECHNOLC | 2.320 | 8.41% ...
凯德(北京)投资基金管理有限公司:就业与通胀风险平衡 美联储或秋季启动降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 10:00
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance is considered to be in a "good place," with risks between the U.S. labor market and inflation targets becoming more balanced [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time since the rate cut cycle began last September [3] - Federal Reserve officials generally anticipate a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with rising inflation pressures and a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rate cuts could begin as early as July, while Mary Daly expressed a more cautious view, indicating that actions are more likely in the fall [5] - Daly emphasized that monetary policy adjustments should be based on actual economic data rather than preset paths, highlighting the challenges of communication within the Federal Reserve [5] - The Federal Reserve's future policy adjustments will heavily depend on key indicators such as inflation, employment, and economic growth, as the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges [7]