来源：滚动播报 （来源：经济参考报） 日前，美联储公布最新的10月货币政策会议纪要中，暴露出对未来货币政策调整的明显分歧。这意味着 未来美联储货币政策调整方向具有一定不确定性，美联储的决策在多项变化中面临更大难度。 美联储在10月实施了今年的第二次降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之 间，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。但这次降息不是在一边倒的情况下取得的。会议纪要显示，"几 位"与会者当时反对10月降息；"几位"表示12月降息"很可能"是合适的；还有"许多人认为12月降息可能 不合适"，因为进一步降低政策利率可能加剧通胀居高不下的风险。 各方对此解读为，12月美联储连续第三次降息的概率明显降低，市场倾向于逆转一个月前的判断，认为 美联储12月降息的概率只有三分之一左右。 一方面，美联储因为政府长时间的"关门"难以得到充足的经济数据，从而更愿意维持稳定的货币选择。 美国政府"停摆"长达43天，造成经济数据的"停播"。据报道，美国劳工统计局将不会发布10月非农就业 报告，而11月的非农数据也要等到12月9日至10日联邦公开市场委员会会议之后的12月16日才会公布， 这给美联储 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the inability to release key economic data for October, marking a significant disruption in economic reporting [1][3] - The unemployment rate data for October will not be published for the first time since 1942, ending a 77-year streak of continuous reporting [3] - The White House has conflicting statements regarding the release of employment data, with some officials suggesting a complete halt while others indicate partial data may still be available [3] Group 2 - The absence of unemployment and CPI data creates uncertainty for manufacturing and retail sectors, affecting labor cost predictions and pricing strategies [4] - The bond market relies heavily on inflation data for pricing, and the lack of this information may lead to increased market volatility and resource misallocation [4] - Multinational companies are delaying investment plans in the U.S. due to concerns over unclear economic fundamentals [4]

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices declined for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones down 173.96 points (0.38%) to 45947.32, the Nasdaq down 113.16 points (0.50%) to 22384.70, and the S&P 500 down 33.25 points (0.50%) to 6604.72, amid rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 136.90 points (0.58%) to 23544.80, the UK's FTSE 100 down 36.88 points (0.40%) to 9213.55, and France's CAC40 down 32.03 points (0.41%) to 7795.42 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $0.01 to $64.98 per barrel (0.02% decrease), while Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.11 to $69.42 per barrel (0.16% increase) [2] - Bitcoin dropped over 3% to $109,421.30, and Ethereum fell over 6% to $3,903.01 [3] Precious Metals and Forex - Spot gold increased by over 0.3% to $3,749.04 [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.7% to 98.554, with the euro at $1.1653, the pound at $1.3335, and the yen at ¥149.89 [4] Economic Data - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, up from a previous estimate of 3.3%, indicating a strong rebound from the pandemic [5] - Consumer spending and business equipment spending remain resilient, with expectations for a nearly 3% year-over-year increase in personal consumption expenditures for August [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested the possibility of a rapid 50 basis point rate cut to mitigate economic risks, emphasizing the need for a quicker adjustment to monetary policy [6] - Dallas Fed President Logan proposed shifting from the federal funds rate to a more stable overnight rate linked to U.S. Treasury collateral for monetary policy execution [6] Mortgage Rates - U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.3%, ending a streak of declines, which may impact affordability for potential buyers [8] - Economists believe that a drop below 6% could encourage more homeowners to sell, increasing the inventory of second-hand homes [8] Regulatory Developments - Meta is facing potential EU charges for inadequate regulation of illegal content on its platforms, which could result in fines up to 6% of its global annual revenue [10] - Google may face a second significant fine from the EU related to competition law violations, following a previous fine of €2.95 billion for unfair practices [11]

Core Points - The U.S. economy is facing "dual risks" of rising inflation and declining employment, with significant changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies yet to be observed [1] - Short-term inflation risks are on the rise while employment risks are declining, creating a challenging situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points reflects increased employment risks, but inflation trends remain highly uncertain [1][2] Economic Indicators - Consumer and business confidence indicators saw a significant drop in the spring but have since recovered, although they remain below early-year levels [1] - Labor supply and demand have noticeably slowed, increasing the risk of employment decline [1] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 [2] - This decision follows three rate cuts in 2024, with one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with job vacancies in July dropping to 7.18 million, the lowest level in the past ten months, indicating a gradual decrease in demand for labor by businesses [1][3] - Job vacancies have significantly declined from a peak of 12.1 million in March 2022, reflecting a cautious hiring attitude among companies amid uncertain policy environments [3][5] Industry Analysis - In the healthcare and social assistance sector, job vacancies decreased by 181,000, while the retail sector cut 110,000 positions. Conversely, there was an increase in hiring demand in wholesale trade, construction, and the federal public sector [3] - Despite a slight rise in layoffs, the number of voluntary resignations remained stable at 3.2 million, suggesting that workers' confidence in the job market is holding steady [3][5] Economic Implications - The current data indicates a weakening vitality in the job market, with the number of job vacancies falling below the number of unemployed for the first time since April 2021, signaling a new shift in the U.S. labor market [5] - Analysts believe these labor market changes will influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts to address economic slowdown risks [8]

Group 1 - Trump stated that if Putin and Zelensky do not meet, there could be "serious consequences" and the U.S. may intervene in one to two weeks [5] - Trump emphasized that discussions regarding U.S. involvement in Ukraine's security guarantees have not yet taken place, but the U.S. will assist Europe in playing a major role [6] - Zelensky announced that Ukrainian and U.S. teams will hold talks over the weekend to discuss the possibility of peace negotiations with Russia [7] Group 2 - Zelensky expressed gratitude to Norway for its support and mentioned that Norway has joined a plan to purchase weapons from the U.S., with Ukraine hoping to receive at least $1 billion monthly from this plan [8] - Norway and Germany have provided Ukraine with two sets of "Patriot" air defense systems and associated missiles to help counter drone and missile attacks [8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a dovish stance has led to a rise in precious metal prices, with gold and silver futures showing increases [12] - Analysts noted that silver prices are more sensitive to Federal Reserve policies compared to gold, and the industrial demand for silver is also a significant factor [13][14] - The upcoming U.S. PCE data is a focal point for the market, with expectations that inflation may rise due to tariffs and energy prices, but economic growth slowdown could suppress demand-side inflation [16] Group 4 - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from above 100 to below 90, indicating a relative undervaluation of silver compared to gold, attracting more investment into silver [15] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive due to ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, despite potential technical corrections if global economic recovery exceeds expectations [17][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Powell signaled dovishness at the JH meeting [2][4] - Silver: Poised to reach previous highs [2][5] - Copper: Prices rose as the US dollar declined [2][10] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supported prices [2][16] - Tin: Trading within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Inventory accumulation slowed [2][23] - Alumina: Prices edged up sideways [2][23] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23] - Nickel: Trading within a narrow range [2][26] - Stainless steel: Short - term trading at low levels [2][26] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex gold 2510 and London gold spot rose by 1.00% and 0.95% respectively. The trading volume of Comex gold 2510 increased by 59,697, and the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 9,952 [5]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell signaled dovishness, emphasizing employment risks and opening the door to interest rate cuts. He also announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [5]. - **Trend strength**: Gold trend strength is 1 [8]. Silver - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Comex silver 2510 and London silver spot rose by 2.07% and 1.85% respectively. The trading volume of Comex silver 2510 increased by 10,840 [5]. - **Trend strength**: Silver trend strength is 1 [8]. Copper - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai copper main contract and LME copper 3M electronic disk rose by 0.18% and 0.77% respectively. The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,009 tons, and the LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September. Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine and lowered its copper output target for this year [10][12]. - **Trend strength**: Copper trend strength is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and LME zinc 3M electronic disk rose by 0.16% and 1.39% respectively. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 503 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons [13]. - **News**: Powell signaled dovishness and announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework [14]. - **Trend strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0 [15]. Lead - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of the Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3M electronic disk rose by 0.21% and 1.12% respectively. The Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 476 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 6,550 tons [16]. - **News**: Powell announced an adjustment to the Fed's monetary policy framework. Canada will cancel multiple retaliatory tariffs against the US starting in September [16]. - **Trend strength**: Lead trend strength is 0 [16]. Tin - **Fundamental data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract fell by 0.21%, while the LME tin 3M electronic disk rose by 1.11%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 205 tons, and the LME tin inventory increased by 45 tons [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Powell signaled dovishness. China's State Council executive meeting studied measures to release sports consumption potential. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to guide the construction of computing power facilities [20]. - **Trend strength**: Tin trend strength is 1 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and LME aluminum 3M rose. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.08 million tons. The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract rose by 14 [23]. - **Comprehensive news**: A new Fed journalist said Powell signaled a cautious interest rate cut [25]. - **Trend strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and stainless - steel main contract decreased slightly. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 20,539 [26]. - **Macro and industry news**: Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage. There were environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park [26][27]. - **Trend strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0 [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Different commodities are expected to have different trends such as range - bound trading, upward trends, or downward trends [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The JH meeting saw Powell adopt a dovish stance. Gold prices showed certain movements, with Comex gold 2510 rising 1.00% to 3417.20. The trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: It is expected to reach the previous high. Comex silver 2510 rose 2.07% to 39.390, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the dollar falling, copper prices rose. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 0.18% to 78,650, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai zinc main contract rose 0.16% to 22275, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][14][17]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price. The Shanghai lead main contract rose 0.21% to 16780, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in range - bound trading. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.21% to 265,930, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][20][24]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation has slowed down. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20630, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: It is in narrow - range bound trading. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,610, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in short - term low - level range - bound trading. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,750, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy - **Crude Oil - related**: No direct crude oil analysis, but related products are covered. - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend is obvious, and the short - term strength will continue [2][55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the outer market has a slight rebound [2][55]. - **LPG**: Import costs provide support, but the supply - demand situation lacks obvious improvement [2][51]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][34][37]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in range - bound trading, and the strategy is to go long on dips. The trend intensity is 1 [2][38][40]. - **PTA and PX**: They are both in an upward - trending state and suitable for positive spreads. PX rose 0.11% to 6966, and PTA rose 0.16% to 4868 [2][59]. - **MEG**: It is in an upward - trending state, rising 0.02% to 4474 [2][59]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The negative impact of the US soybean oil SRE has been digested, and international oil prices have risen [2][63]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in high - level range - bound trading [2][63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans rose slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [2][65]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Short - term valuation is still supported by macro and micro factors, and the trend intensity is 2 [2][41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are both in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][44][48]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in wide - range bound trading, and the trend intensities are 0 [2][52][54]. - **Log**: It is in repeated fluctuations, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][55][58].

Group 1 - The market anticipates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a likelihood of 90.7% for a rate cut and only 9.3% for maintaining the current rate [1] - For October, the probabilities indicate a 4.5% chance of maintaining rates, a 48.9% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut, and a 46.5% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut, suggesting strong expectations for continued rate cuts [1] - Recent economic data shows a moderation in inflation and a slowdown in employment growth, which are key factors influencing the market's expectation for a rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - The core personal consumption expenditure price index in the U.S. has decreased to 2.9%, indicating easing inflation pressures and providing room for a shift in monetary policy [2] - The unemployment rate remains low, but the growth rate of new jobs is slowing, and the savings rate has dropped to 3.4%, the lowest since December 2022, suggesting challenges for sustainable economic growth [2] - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to impact the U.S. dollar negatively, leading to a depreciation that could attract more foreign investment into emerging markets [2] Group 3 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including inflation, employment, and GDP growth, which will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts within the year, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of this stance [1][3] - Bowman emphasizes the need for the Fed to begin cutting rates in the September meeting to prevent further unnecessary deterioration in the labor market [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also indicates that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, suggesting two 25 basis point cuts this year [3][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added, falling short of the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [4] - The unemployment rate slightly increased, and previous months' job numbers were revised downwards, indicating a more pessimistic labor market than expected [4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for June rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, suggesting stable inflation [5]