1月2日，进入2026年初，黄金市场的多头格局依旧稳固，反弹上涨已成为趋势性必然。尽管当前金价处 于相对高位，但技术形态与地缘政治因素的双重支撑，为多头走势注入了强劲动力。其中，俄乌局势始 终处于胶着状态，尚未出现明确的结束信号，这种持续的不确定性不断强化着黄金的避险属性，成为支 撑金价高位运行的核心逻辑之一。从潜在风险因素来看，2026年能对黄金多头趋势构成实质性冲击的， 大概率将是美联储货币政策的调整。若美联储释放加息信号或收紧流动性，可能会改变当前市场的资金 流向，对金价形成压制。不过，对于短线交易者而言，长期趋势仅需作为背景认知即可，无需过度纠 结，核心应聚焦于日线级别的走势变化，把握短期波动中的交易机会。 结合近期市场表现，元旦假期期间市场休市，本周金价仍存在一定下调空间，预计底部修复过程将延 续，金价或继续下行寻找更强支撑。技术面上，关键分界点在于4404一线，若多头能够强势站上该位 置，将推动日线级别走势重新崛起，打开进一步上行空间；反之，若未能突破，则可能维持震荡修复格 局。 今日盘面来看，预估金价将先迎来反弹，白盘可优先考虑布局多单。需要重点关注的是，当金价靠近 4404一线时，大概率会遭遇 ...

基本面方面，美联储在12月会议上决定降息，但会议纪要显示这一决策并非共识性结果。部分支持降息的官员强调，此次行动是权衡利弊后的选择，甚至 存在维持利率不变的可能性。多数与会者认为，若通胀如期逐步回落，未来进一步降息具备合理性。然而，会议纪要连续两次凸显政策制定者之间的显著 分歧，反映出当前美联储货币政策调整的复杂性与不确定性。 从技术上看，本周初国际金价刷新历史新高后跳水，直接跌破本周多空分水岭4474美元/盎司及下方第一支撑4398美元/盎司双重支撑位，说明短期空头力 量的强大，周内行情已经由多头转向空头，4小时图形中走势已经进入空头模型中，如无意外国际金价大概率还会继续下探。 与会者普遍预期2026年经济增速将加快，中期内经济活动与潜在产出水平基本匹配。财政政策调整、监管环境优化及有利的金融市场条件被视为关键支撑 因素。但官员们也指出，美国经济增速的不确定性仍较高。此外，人工智能等技术进步可能通过提升生产率在不推高通胀的前提下促进经济增长，但需关 注其对就业增长的潜在抑制作用。 下行方面，关注支撑4264美元/盎司附近，若国际金价有效跌破该位置，支撑调整至4188美元/盎司附近。上行方面，关注阻力4398 ...

北京时间周二(12月23日)欧盘时段，美元指数交投于97.936附近，现货白银目前交投于69.45美元/盎司， 今日开盘于68.99美元/盎司，截至发稿白银价格最高上探69.98美元/盎司，最低触及68.87美元/盎司，基 本面关注今晚美国将公布第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值、第三季度实际个人消费支出季率初值、第三 季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值以及10月耐用品订单月率。 今日白银价格最新查询(2025年12月23日) | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 69.45 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 16441 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 15.682 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 16441 | 元/千克 | 【基本面解析】 【晚间白银交易策略】 美国总统唐纳德.特朗普周一表示，美国将继续保留并可能出售最近几周在委内瑞拉海岸扣押的石油。 特朗普补充说，美国还将保留被扣押的船只。此外，乌克兰继续对俄罗斯能源基础设施进行打击，最新 的袭击损坏了两艘船只和两个码头，并在黑海沿岸的一个村庄引发火灾。 在美联储可能继续放松政策的预期不断增长 ...

美联储理事米兰警告称，如果美国央行在明年不继续下调利率，可能会增加经济陷入衰退的风险。 他周一在接受采访时表示，尽管短期内并不预期经济会立刻下行，失业率上升的趋势，理应促使政策制 定者继续采取更偏鸽派的立场。 在谈及后续政策节奏时，米兰表示，自9月以来，美联储已累计降息75个基点，因此在下次会议上再度 一次性降息50个基点的必要性有所下降，但他尚未作出最终判断。"政策可能会从大幅调整，逐渐进入 更精细的微调阶段，只是目前是否已经到达这一阶段，还需要再观察几次降息效果。" 本月，美联储再次降息25个基点，但内部对未来路径分歧明显。多数官员预计明年仅再降息一次，近期 多位官员的公开讲话也释放出短期内按兵不动、等待经济前景更清晰的信号。 与此同时，部分地区联储主席对通胀仍高于2%目标近一个百分点表示担忧，而失业率上行又加剧了市 场对劳动力市场可能快速走弱的忧虑，使美联储在稳增长与控通胀之间面临更复杂的权衡。 米兰指出，近期就业数据已显示失业率"可能高于此前市场预期"，这类信号足以推动美联储政策继续向 宽松方向调整。自9月加入美联储理事会以来，米兰一直主张更大幅度的降息。他的任期将于明年1月结 束。 ...

While inflation continues to dominate market commentary late in 2025, the more immediate threat to U.S. economic stability is emerging from the labor market. Evidence is building that employment conditions are weakening faster than headline data suggests, creating a risk profile that traders cannot ignore heading into 2026.For markets, this shift matters more than marginal changes in CPI. A deteriorating labor backdrop changes the Federal Reserve’s reaction function, alters earnings expectations, and reshap ...

12月16日，今日21：30，美国劳工部劳动统计局，将公布美国10~11月合并非农就业报告。10月1日至11 月12日，美国政府因为预算拨款未通过而持续停摆，导致非农就业报告的基础数据存在无法采集、无法 追溯的问题。美国劳工部宣布合并10月和11月的数据，不再逐月单独公布。 ▲ATFX图 从合并后的数据看，非农就业人口预期值为5万人，远低于前值11.9万人，也就是9月份的就业数据。两 个月的合并就业人口不及9月单月数据，美国劳动力市场的疲软状态可见一斑。失业率的预期值为 4.4%，与前值持平，意味着美国的长期就业状况相对稳定。 为什么美国的劳动力市场在5月份后，就变得异常疲软？我们认为，特朗普的移民政策是主要影响因 素。5月份开始，特朗普执行严格的非法移民驱逐政策，当月的非农就业人口断崖式的从15.8万人降低 至不足2万人。美联储官员也经常提及移民政策对就业市场的冲击问题。比如，美联储主席鲍威尔在10 月末的新闻发布会上表示："劳动力增长的下降，原因是移民和劳动力参与率的下降"。 另一个影响因素是人工智能的发展。美国在人工智能领域处于全球领导地位，但人工智能对基础岗位的 替代正在导致就业市场的职位供应减少。尤 ...

亚太市场全线下跌。 12月16日，亚太市场全线下跌，截至发稿，日经225指数跌1.26%，韩国综合指数跌1.59%，富时新加坡海峡指数跌0.32%，澳洲标普200指数跌0.40%。 美东时间12月15日，美联储理事米兰表示，他认为美联储的政策立场过于紧缩，应该加快降息步伐。他在出席哥伦比亚大学的活动时指出，美联储的政策 立场对经济而言过于紧缩，通胀前景良好，而劳动力市场出现了一些预警信号。由于劳动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。 谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难以逆转。部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后 效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 米兰当天对媒体透露，在明年1月底理事的任期届满后，他可能会继续留在美联储，直到新的理事任命获得确认，有人接替他的职位。 同日，美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储货币政策目前处于良好位置，随着就业市场降温，通胀有望趋于缓和。他在新泽西银行家协会于泽西城举 行的一场活动上表示，随着近期政策放松，负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已将"略具限制性的货币政策立 ...

Group 1 - The USD/INR exchange rate is approaching the 90.00 mark, indicating a strengthening of the Indian Rupee, influenced by the upcoming visit of U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Swett to India on December 10-11 to discuss trade issues [1][3] - A key focus for India in the trade talks is to push the U.S. to lower existing tax rates on certain Indian exports, which currently face rates as high as 50%, relatively high among major U.S. trading partners [3] - Foreign institutional investors have shown a declining interest in the Indian market, with a cumulative net sell-off of ₹14,819.29 million since the beginning of December, marking five consecutive months of capital outflow [3] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data, particularly the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, is under scrutiny, with expectations of an increase in retail inflation to 0.7% from 0.25% in October, serving as a reference for the domestic economic situation [3] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, with investors closely watching for indications of future interest rate paths, contributing to the further appreciation of the Indian Rupee against the USD [3][4] - The U.S. Dollar Index has slightly declined, hovering around 99.20, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, marking a potential third consecutive cut [4] Group 3 - The USD/INR exchange rate is trading around 90.00, maintaining above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 89.6463, indicating a solid trend structure [6] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, having retreated from previous highs, suggesting strong momentum but a potential easing [6] - Sustaining above the 20-day EMA is crucial for maintaining the current trend, while a close below this level could trigger further adjustments, with market attention shifting to previous highs around 88.97 [6]

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing subtle dynamics, with the Indian Rupee facing pressure against the US Dollar, while the Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around a two-week low of approximately 99.40, driven by investor expectations regarding future adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2] - Market expectations indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% in December, supported by recent comments from several Fed officials [2] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve leadership is influencing market sentiment, with speculation that if White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett is nominated to replace current Chairman Jerome Powell, it could impact the Dollar's trajectory [2] Group 2 - The focus of the market is on the upcoming release of the US November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which is expected to slightly decline from 48.7 in October to 48.6, indicating potential challenges in manufacturing activity [3] - The Manufacturing PMI is a crucial leading indicator of manufacturing activity, with readings below 50 suggesting contraction, which could reinforce market expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [3] - Understanding these dynamics is essential for grasping market direction, as expectations for a shift towards looser monetary policy typically exert downward pressure on the Dollar while providing relative support to non-Dollar currencies [3] Group 3 - The monetary policy directions of major global economies are noteworthy, as differing decisions by central banks based on their economic conditions can lead to changes in interest rate differentials, driving capital flows and exchange rate adjustments [4] - Investors should adopt a diversified perspective when observing the market, avoiding excessive focus on a single country or data point [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions regarding future monetary policy adjustments, indicating uncertainty in the direction of future rate changes [1][2] - In October, the Federal Reserve implemented its second rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024 [1] - The minutes show that several participants opposed the October rate cut, while others believe a December cut is likely, but many think it may not be appropriate due to ongoing inflation risks [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days has hindered the availability of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Current economic data does not strongly support a third consecutive rate cut, as overall inflation remains above target levels, with no clear signs of a return to the 2% target [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to officially stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which may influence future rate adjustments [2] Group 3 - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high, has created divergent market expectations [3] - The December meeting of the Federal Reserve will be closely watched, as its decisions significantly impact global financial markets [3] - Following the meeting minutes, the U.S. dollar strengthened while the Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar index reaching 100.35, close to a six-month high [3] Group 4 - The future trajectory of gold prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with central bank policies influencing market directions as year-end approaches [4]