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【今晚播出】全球化裂变中的中国底气,从《两说》看制造业的胜负
第一财经· 2025-05-07 07:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience and adaptability of the Chinese economy amidst a global trade storm, emphasizing that globalization is not ending but rather going through cycles of expansion and contraction [1][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - The global trade as a percentage of GDP is projected to remain at 30% in 2024, with China's trade surplus reaching a record high of $992 billion, indicating that globalization is still intact [3][5]. - Historical context shows that globalization has survived past crises, suggesting that the current trade turmoil is just another phase of contraction [3]. Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing capacity accounts for 31% of global production, significantly surpassing that of the U.S., which is crucial for maintaining its position in the global supply chain [5]. - The quality standards in Chinese manufacturing have evolved, with companies like CATL achieving a defect rate of one in a billion, setting a global benchmark [5]. Group 3: U.S. Trade Policies and Consequences - U.S. high tariff policies have led to increased debt interest costs and a decline in the stock market, negatively impacting consumers due to rising prices of electronics heavily sourced from China [5]. - The attempt to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. is deemed nearly impossible due to the lack of necessary industrial clusters and skilled labor [5][6]. Group 4: Globalization and Localization Strategies - Chinese companies are adopting a "going global 2.0" strategy, focusing on localization to integrate into foreign markets, as exemplified by Haier and Sany Heavy Industry [8]. - The deep integration of Chinese supply chains into the global market creates an invisible barrier against trade barriers imposed by other countries [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of China's role in the global economy is characterized by resilience and confidence, with a focus on creating a fair multi-polar trade system rather than undermining competitors [10]. - Key themes for the future include uncertainty, resilience, and confidence, highlighting China's strategic positioning in the face of global challenges [10].