中国经济增长合理区间
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商务部原副部长魏建国:中国经济下一步的增长红利是服务业升级和国际化 要扩大新型消费比重
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-18 13:23
Group 1: Core Objectives of the 15th Five-Year Plan - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - The plan proposes a combination of improving public service spending and removing unreasonable restrictions on consumption in sectors like automobiles and housing [1][6] Group 2: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the 15th Five-Year period is projected to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, with a focus on maintaining a balance between growth and risk management [2][3] - The plan aims to enhance resident consumption by addressing both income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service expenditure [3][4] Group 3: Role of Real Estate and Automotive Sectors - The real estate and automotive sectors are identified as crucial for driving economic growth due to their large consumer bases and ability to stimulate related industries [6][7] - The removal of unreasonable restrictions in these sectors is expected to release pent-up consumer demand, contributing to economic stability [6][7] Group 4: New Consumption Trends - The plan highlights the need to shift towards new types of consumption that prioritize human needs over material goods, focusing on sectors like the silver economy, baby products, and women's economy [5][10] - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying consumption scenarios beyond basic needs, promoting digital, green, and health-related consumption [5][10] Group 5: Future Economic Contributions - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that it will contribute over 60% to GDP growth in the coming five years [10][11] - Investment is seen as a key driver for optimizing economic structure, transitioning from traditional infrastructure to high-tech sectors [10][11] Group 6: Service Sector Development - The shift in focus towards expanding the service sector is viewed as a strategic move to enhance China's economic competitiveness and growth potential [12][13] - The service sector's contribution to GDP has surpassed 50%, indicating a significant transformation in domestic demand and economic structure [13]