证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 02 日 相关报告 1、《沃什当选与 PPI 提前转 正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要 矛盾———宏观与大类资产周 报》2026-02-01 2、《为什么伊朗局势一波三 折？———国际时政周评》 2026-02-01 3、《金属价格为何如此繁荣— 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年 第 3 期）》2026-01-26 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 2025 年周平均工作时间有所下降 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 4 期） 频率：每周 降低就业人员工作时长，有助于增加消费场景，对提升居民消费率有帮助作 用。 定期报告 根据国家统计局的数据，企业就业人员每周平均工作时间为 48.43 小时，低 于 2023 和 2024 年时长，但仍明显高于疫情前的水平。去年，除 1 月外，2- 12 月每周平均工作时间均低于 2023-2024 年同期水平。 工作时长的缩短自然会增加居民的闲暇时间。根据我们的测算扣 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite facing significant domestic and international pressures, the national economy managed to achieve its development goals in 2025, but it still faces numerous challenges and issues that need to be addressed for sustainable growth in 2026 [2][4][21]. Economic Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the GDP growth rate was 5.0%, maintaining the same level as in 2024, showcasing the economy's resilience amid a complex international environment and persistent domestic downward pressure [5][21]. - The overall public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year-on-year, while industrial enterprise profits rose by 0.1%, and per capita disposable income grew by 5.0% [5][21]. Challenges Faced - The main challenges include a slowdown in global economic growth, increased uncertainty, insufficient domestic demand, and weak investment and consumption, which necessitate a focus on expanding domestic demand [3][21][22]. - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2%, with youth unemployment particularly high at 16.9% for ages 16-24 [16][21]. Inflation and Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with an overall increase of 0% in 2025, indicating a prolonged period of low inflation, which can enhance purchasing power but may also dampen producer motivation [9][12]. - Core CPI showed a gradual increase, reaching 1.2% by the end of the year, suggesting a potential recovery in economic activity [14][21]. Trade Balance - The international balance of payments for goods and services showed a significant surplus of 52,540 billion yuan, an increase of 20,467 billion yuan from the previous year, indicating strong economic resilience and competitiveness [18][21]. Outlook for 2026 - The article highlights that expanding domestic demand is crucial for maintaining stable economic growth in 2026, with a focus on increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal [22][27]. - The challenges of insufficient demand, particularly in consumption and investment, are expected to persist, necessitating targeted policies to stimulate growth [23][24][25]. Strategies for Growth - The government aims to increase the resident consumption rate by 1.0 percentage point in 2026, emphasizing the need for effective policies and reforms to boost consumption, particularly in services like healthcare and entertainment [27][30]. - Improving the quality and supply of healthcare and entertainment services is essential to unlock the potential for increased consumer spending [33][30].

Group 1: Importance of Increasing Consumption - Increasing the resident consumption rate is crucial for promoting internal economic circulation and improving external geopolitical economic patterns[6] - A higher consumption rate can reduce reliance on external demand, enhance economic autonomy, and alleviate international trade tensions[8] Group 2: Current Consumption Characteristics - In 2023, China's resident consumption rate was 39.6%, significantly lower than the U.S. rate of 67.9%, with a gap of approximately 28 percentage points[10] - Over the past 75 years, China's consumption rate has been above 40% for two-thirds of the time, indicating potential for improvement[12] Group 3: Structural Challenges - Service consumption in China is insufficient, with only 17.9% of GDP compared to the U.S. at 45.8%, a difference of 27.9 percentage points[15] - The share of improvement-oriented consumption is low, with about 40% of Chinese consumption still focused on basic needs, compared to 24% in the U.S.[16] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - The government should create a consumption-oriented macro governance system, shifting tax policies to stimulate local consumption[26] - Enhancing the income distribution system is essential to increase residents' consumption capacity and confidence[28]

Group 1 - The core issue affecting China's economic growth is the demand problem, which has been prioritized in economic work for two consecutive years [1][2] - The main contradiction in economic operation has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, necessitating a focus on resolving demand issues for stable economic development [2] - The expansion of domestic demand policies has been extensive and impactful, contributing positively to economic performance this year [2] Group 2 - Consumption demand is influenced by both short-term market fluctuations and long-term structural factors, requiring a dual approach of immediate stimulus and addressing deeper issues [3][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from goods to services highlights the need for targeted support in sectors like education, healthcare, and elder care [5] - Effective investment remains crucial alongside consumption, with a focus on meeting consumer needs and expanding investment opportunities [6] Group 3 - Key areas for investment include urban renewal, old community renovation, rural infrastructure, and revitalizing homestead land, which present significant demand potential [8] - Promoting private and foreign investment requires continuous domestic demand policies and improvements in the business environment through reforms and openness [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of promoting price recovery as a key objective during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, particularly in the early stages of macroeconomic regulation [1] - The central economic work conference this year highlighted that the overall tone of macroeconomic regulation is to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at facilitating this price recovery [1] - Yang Weimin predicts that economic growth rates need to reach approximately 4.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and around 4% during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with an average growth rate of about 4.2% from 2025 to 2035 [1] Group 2 - The current focus on developing new productive forces is seen as crucial for China to succeed in the global technological revolution and industrial transformation [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to target digitalization and low-carbon initiatives, accelerating breakthroughs in key core technologies and addressing critical technological bottlenecks [2] - To ensure economic growth remains within a reasonable range, there is a need to significantly increase the consumption rate of residents, as expanding total demand of 35 trillion yuan must largely come from increased household consumption [2] Group 3 - Optimizing the distribution system and structure is essential for comprehensive development and common prosperity, which directly impacts the increase in the consumption rate and the ability to maintain reasonable economic growth [2] - A significant breakthrough in optimizing the distribution structure is indicated by a noticeable increase in the proportion of per capita disposable income of residents relative to national income [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Wealth Management Forum emphasizes the importance of achieving breakthroughs in five strategic tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to build a financial power [1] Economic Growth - Maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range is the top priority for the "14th Five-Year Plan," crucial for achieving significant progress in socialist modernization [3][12] - The target for reasonable growth is approximately 4.5% for both actual and nominal GDP, aligning with the goal of reaching the per capita GDP of a moderately developed country by 2035 [3][12] - The nominal growth is projected to be lower than actual growth in 2023, 2024, and 2025, leading to weaker growth in urban residents' income, corporate profits, and fiscal revenue, exacerbating insufficient domestic demand [3][12] Macro Control - The focus of macroeconomic control during the early phase of the "14th Five-Year Plan" must shift to promoting price recovery, as opposed to merely preventing price increases [4][13] - The overall tone of macroeconomic policy is to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with monetary policy aimed at supporting this recovery [4][13] Development of New Productive Forces - The development of new productive forces is essential for the advancement of China's modern industrial system and is key to winning in the context of global changes and technological revolutions [5][14] - The focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" should be on digitalization and low-carbon technologies, aiming for breakthroughs in critical and frontier technologies [5][14] Modern Industrial System - A modern industrial system must maintain a reasonable proportion of manufacturing, ensuring that the manufacturing sector's share of GDP remains stable and does not decline too rapidly [6][15] - Lessons from early industrialized countries indicate that a decline in manufacturing share can lead to vulnerabilities, such as falling into the middle-income trap [6][15] Consumer Spending - Increasing the resident consumption rate is identified as a core driver for economic growth, with a need to generate an additional 35 trillion yuan in total demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" if growth is to be maintained at 4.5% [8][17] - The contribution of imports and exports to economic growth is expected to decline, necessitating a shift towards expanding domestic demand [8][17] Distribution Structure - Optimizing the distribution system is crucial for promoting common prosperity and increasing the consumption rate, which is vital for maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [9][18] - Policies should focus on improving income distribution, raising minimum wage standards, and enhancing the income of low-income groups to ensure that disposable income grows faster than economic growth [9][18]

广发证券资深 宏观分析师 文永恒 博士 wenyongheng@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 在论述"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标时，"十五五"规划建议稿提出"居民消费率明显提高"，这 是自"十二五"规划建议以来，时隔15年后再次针对居民消费率提出明确政策目标要求。相较"十二五"时 期"居民消费率上升"主要针对的是经济结构的战略性调整优化；此次提出"居民消费率明显提高"，则更多聚 焦的是解决"有效需求不足等突出问题"。在本篇中我们尝试对"居民消费率"这一概念做出系统梳理。 第二 ， 什么是消费率？消费率是指一个国家或地区在一定时期内的最终消费与GDP的比率，反映一个国家生 产的产品用于最终消费的比重，是衡量国民经济中消费比重的重要指标，一般按现行价格计算，用公式表示 为：消费率=（最终消费／支出法GDP）*100％。与之对应，投资率又称资本形成率，指资本形成总额占国 内生产总值的比重。开放经济模式下，国内生产总值除被用于消费与投资，还将用于净出口(出口减进口)。简 单来说，当净出口等于0的时候，消费率+投资率=100% 。 第三， 最终消费可进一步拆解为居民消费与政府消费两部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - It is expected that by 2026, there will be a marginal recovery in household consumption, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies in areas such as childcare and elderly care, along with the wealth effect from rising stock markets [2] Group 1: Economic Context - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the household consumption rate, which is defined as the proportion of final household consumption expenditure to GDP [2] - In 2024, China's household consumption rate is projected to be 39.9%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points since 2012, but still about 20 percentage points lower than major developed economies [2] Group 2: Consumption Rate Improvement Strategy - To raise the household consumption rate from 40% to 43% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," an average annual growth rate of 6.5% in household consumption is required, assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of about 5% [4] - The increase in consumption is not merely a temporary measure but a strategic move related to the transformation of the economic development model, emphasizing that consumption should enhance the well-being of citizens rather than being treated as a mere policy tool [4] Group 3: Systematic Approaches to Boost Consumption - Five systematic approaches are proposed to enhance household consumption: 1. Optimize the consumption environment to create a collaborative effort among government, enterprises, and residents [5] 2. Improve the income distribution system to solidify the consumption foundation, focusing on increasing disposable income and enhancing property income [5] 3. Strengthen the social security system to alleviate residents' concerns about future expenditures [5] 4. Relax market access to improve supply quality, which can stimulate entrepreneurial spirit and accelerate the development of service industries [6] 5. Optimize holiday systems to release service consumption potential, thereby balancing supply and demand [6][7] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Short-term measures require more proactive macroeconomic policies to unleash consumption potential, while long-term strategies depend on reforms in income distribution, social security, and public services to continuously enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [7]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...