Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in China's macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, while suggesting that major economic indicators such as industrial production and consumption may stabilize in November due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.9% [4][6]. - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, up from 2.9% in the previous month [4][9]. - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7% [4][13]. Industrial Growth - Industrial added value is expected to see a slight increase, with predictions ranging from 5.0% to 5.3% year-on-year growth for November [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in market confidence, although it remains below the threshold [6][8]. Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly supported consumer spending, with related sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% year-on-year increase in total online sales, although the average daily sales showed a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous year [10]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is under pressure, with predictions indicating a further decline in November due to reduced infrastructure spending and weak manufacturing investment [13][14]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support investment in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [14][15]. Infrastructure Investment - The expansion of infrastructure REITs is seen as a key measure for stabilizing investment, with a significant number of projects already launched [16][17]. - The government has allocated substantial funds for long-term special bonds to support major investment projects, reflecting a strategic approach to infrastructure development [15][16].

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is expected to stabilize in November, with industrial production and consumption indicators showing signs of recovery due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [1][2][3] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics will release November macroeconomic data on December 15, with economists predicting a year-on-year industrial added value growth rate of 5.0%, up from 4.9% in the previous month [3] - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, an increase from 2.9% in the previous month [3] - The predicted growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, a decline from the previous month's -1.7% [3] Economic Confidence - The latest "Chief Economist Confidence Index" from the First Financial Research Institute stands at 50, slightly lower than the previous month, indicating a weak recovery phase for the Chinese economy [2][3] - Economists believe that macroeconomic policies will continue to maintain an accommodative stance, laying a solid foundation for the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]