宏观专题 消费补贴和信贷贴息如何推动扩内 需？——挖掘经济潜能系列二 2026 年 02 月 27 日 【宏观观点】 【风险提示】 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王笑笑 证书编号：S1160525020006 证券分析师：陈然 证书编号：S1160524060002 相关研究 《"双碳"政策有望提力加速》 2026.02.25 《地方两会系列（一）——经济增长目标》 2026.02.13 2026.01.05 宏 观 研 究 / 宏 观 专 题 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 2025 年，补贴对经济的贡献加大，"两新""两重"等政策支撑消费和 投资稳步修复。一方面，消费补贴和供给优化协同发力，补贴类商品 增速保持高位。另一方面，"财政补贴+税收信贷优惠"对投资的影响 较大，设备更新、高技术服务、政策托底基建等重点领域投资较快增 长。 2026 年，扩内需政策持续优化，消费补贴和投资贴息或仍是年内核心 举措。"两新"政策的优化支持范围、补贴标准、实施机制，突出对中 小企业、绿色转型、新技术新产品新场景的支持。降低结构性货币政 策工具利率，同时对中小微民营、制造业设备更新、服务业贷款进行 贴息 ...

本报记者 杜雨萌 "中小企业是经济的'毛细血管'，数量庞大、机制灵活，是技术创新的重要源泉和就业的主要容器。降低申报设备更新项目 的投资额门槛，不仅能够扩大政策的惠及面，还能进一步增强有效投资的后劲。"袁剑琴说。 付一夫也认为，降低申报设备更新项目的投资门槛，将对中小企业形成精准赋能，有利于解决其升级资金不足、申报难等 痛点，激活其技术改造动力。同时，这也将向上游传导出大量智能化、绿色化设备需求，向下游催生更多创新消费场景。 国家信息中心经济预测部政策仿真研究室副研究员袁剑琴进一步提出，从直接效应来看，支持线下消费商业设施的设备更 新，有利于破除消费的物理瓶颈和体验限制，将潜在的消费意愿转化为现实的消费行为。从间接效应来看，通过推动线下消费 商业设施的设备更新，可提升消费供给体系的质量与效率，助力培育新型消费业态，畅通"投资优化供给—供给创造消费需求 —消费引领新投资"的循环联动。 去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"置于2026年八项重点任务之首，并将"优化'两 新'政策实施"作为推动该项任务落实的重要内容之一。在此背景下，2026年"两新"政策在设备更新领域的优化举措，不仅在 ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The new policy in Sichuan aims to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement with clear arrangements for the year [3] - The total budget for subsidies is set at 6 billion yuan, focusing on optimizing the coverage of equipment updates, promoting green and low-carbon products, and enhancing fund usage supervision [4][6] Group 2: Equipment Update Support - The support ratio for single projects in production line upgrades is increased to a maximum of 10% of the equipment (including software) investment amount, with a maximum support limit of 20 million yuan [7] - For energy-saving, environmental protection, and safety production projects, the support ratio is raised to a maximum of 15% of fixed assets (including software) investment, also with a maximum of 20 million yuan [7] - The support for intelligent transformation projects remains at a maximum of 20% of the equipment (including software) investment amount, with a cap of 20 million yuan [7] Group 3: Consumer Goods Replacement Subsidies - The new subsidy standards for vehicle replacement are linked to the price of new cars, implementing a "proportion + limit" approach [9] - For scrapping updates, subsidies are set at 12% of the price for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximums of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [9] - For replacement updates, subsidies are 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for fuel vehicles, with maximums of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan respectively [9] Group 4: Implementation and Fairness - The policy emphasizes fairness in subsidies, allowing each consumer to choose only one scrapping or replacement subsidy per year [9] - The implementation of the subsidy program will be more localized, with each city managing its own subsidy applications based on specific needs [10] - The number of supported categories for household appliances has been reduced from 18 to 6, while the number of digital and smart products has increased from 3 to 4 [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market experienced a stable start in January 2026, with production and sales exceeding 2 million units, although passenger vehicle sales declined due to policy changes and market adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In January, total automotive production reached 2.45 million units, while sales were 2.346 million units, with production increasing by 0.01% year-on-year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year-on-year [1]. - The commercial vehicle market continued to show positive trends, with sales reaching 359,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [2]. Group 2: Passenger Vehicle Market - Passenger vehicle production and sales were 2.062 million and 1.988 million units respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.1% and 6.8% [2]. - The decline in passenger vehicle sales is attributed to three main factors: changes in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, the transition of local purchase subsidy policies, and the early release of consumer demand in 2025 [2]. - Chinese brand passenger vehicles maintained a high market share, with sales of 1.329 million units, accounting for 66.9% of the market, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEV production in January was 1.041 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while sales were 945,000 units, showing a slight increase of 0.1% [3]. - However, domestic NEV sales saw a significant decline of 18.9% year-on-year and 54.4% month-on-month, attributed to consumers advancing their purchases to take advantage of tax exemptions [3]. - NEV exports were a highlight, with 302,000 units exported in January, a year-on-year increase of 100%, and total automotive exports reached 681,000 units, up 44.9% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The China Automotive Industry Association (CAAM) anticipates that total automotive sales in 2026 will reach 34.75 million units, a year-on-year growth of 1%, with NEV sales projected to hit 19 million units, a 15.2% increase [4]. - The export forecast for the automotive sector is set at 7.4 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, supported by favorable policies and expanding overseas market opportunities [4].

而1月商用车市场延续向好态势，全月销量为35.9万辆，同比增长23.5%。其中，货车产销量同比均呈现 两位数增长；客车产量同比增长，但销量同比下降。陈士华称，商用车国内市场较去年同期有所恢复， 出口快速增长。 2026年1月，汽车市场迎来平稳开局。 2月11日，中国汽车工业协会(简称"中汽协")最新数据显示，1月汽车产销量均超过200万辆，分别为245 万辆和234.6万辆，产量同比增长0.01%，销量同比下降3.2%，环比分别下降25.7%和28.3%。 中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华分析，1月汽车行业总体运行平稳，乘用车市场有所下降，商用车市 场延续向好态势，汽车出口继续保持增长。随着"两新"等相关政策的细化、落实，有助于推动车市需求 企稳回升，助力行业平稳运行。 政策切换，乘用车销量回调 据中汽协数据，1月乘用车市场有所下降。1月乘用车产销分别为206.2万辆和198.8万辆，同比分别下降 4.1%和6.8%，环比分别下降28.4%和30.2%。 市场下降的主要因素有三方面，陈士华指出，一是新能源汽车购置税政策切换调整，二是多地购车补贴 政策处于年度交替之际，三是部分消费需求在2025年提前释放。 从乘 ...

中国汽车工业协会11日发布数据显示，1月份，汽车行业总体运行平稳，乘用车市场有所下降，商用车 市场延续向好态势，新能源汽车市场平稳运行，汽车出口继续保持增长。 1月，汽车产销分别完成245万辆和234.6万辆，环比分别下降25.7%和28.3%，产量同比增长0.01%、销量 同比下降3.2%。 商用车市场延续向好态势。1月份，商用车产销分别完成38.8万辆和35.9万辆，同比分别增长29.9%和 23.5%。在商用车主要品种中，与上月相比，货车和客车产销均呈不同程度下降；与去年同期相比，货 车产销快速增长，客车产量小幅增长、销量小幅下降。 新能源汽车市场平稳运行。1月份，新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5% 和0.1%，新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的40.3%。在新能源汽车主要品种中，与上月相比， 三大类新能源汽车品种产销均呈不同程度下降；与去年同期相比，纯电动汽车产销小幅增长，插电式混 合动力汽车产量微增、销量小幅下降，燃料电池汽车产销呈不同程度下降。 中汽协副秘书长陈士华分析，导致市场下降的主要因素有：一是新能源汽车购置税政策切换调整；二是 多地购车补贴政策处于 ...

2月9日，《北京市2026年家电以旧换新、数码和智能产品购新补贴实施细则》（以下简称《实施细 则》）正式施行。此次《实施细则》对在京个人消费者进一步明确了补贴方式、资格领取和使用流程 等。其中，设置线上及线下资格有效期，以及逾期未使用某品类线上或线下资格4次不可再领取相应品 类资格等，被业内人士视为对补贴政策的精细化升级，其核心是实现补贴资金的精准投放与高效利用。 同时，对时效管理和信用约束等的创新设计，也反映出财政资金使用从"重投入"向"重绩效"的治理转 型。 在中关村物联网产业联盟副秘书长袁帅看来，《实施细则》是对以往补贴政策的精细化升级，核心是实 现补贴资金的精准投放与高效利用。"过往补贴政策在执行中可能出现资格滥用、资金浪费等问题，例 如部分消费者领取资格后闲置，导致补贴资金无法及时惠及真正有消费需求的群体，同时分散的领取与 使用规则也增加了监管难度，通过统一申领入口、设置资格有效期和次数限制，能够从制度层面堵塞漏 洞，确保补贴资金流向真实消费场景。" "两新"政策进入提质阶段 "本着'总额控制、均衡使用、先购先得、用完即止'的原则，按照'资格领取、资格绑定、购买商品、补 贴立减'的方式实施"，《实施 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Beijing 2026 Home Appliance Trade-in and Digital Product Purchase Subsidy Implementation Details" aims to enhance the precision and efficiency of subsidy fund allocation for consumers in Beijing, reflecting a shift from "heavy investment" to "performance-oriented" governance in fiscal fund usage [2][6]. Group 1: Subsidy Details - The subsidy applies to six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital and smart products, with a subsidy standard of 15% of the final sales price after discounts, capped at 1,500 yuan for home appliances and 500 yuan for digital products [3][4]. - Consumers must complete real-name authentication via the "Jingtong" mobile app to claim subsidies, with restrictions on the number of qualifications that can be claimed for each category [3][4]. Group 2: Qualification and Usage Rules - The qualification for subsidies has a validity period, with online qualifications expiring at 24:00 on the same day and offline qualifications expiring at 24:00 on the following Sunday, with a limit of four unutilized qualifications leading to ineligibility for future claims in that category [3][4]. - The implementation emphasizes consistency among the applicant, payer, and recipient, requiring verification of product activation and alignment with sales orders [4][5]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Evolution - The "Two New" policy has entered a quality enhancement phase, transitioning from initial implementation to a focus on precision and efficiency in subsidy distribution [6]. - The central and local governments are collaborating to ensure unified policy direction while adapting to local market conditions, enhancing the convenience of participation through digital platforms [5][6].

在中关村物联网产业联盟副秘书长袁帅看来，《实施细则》是对以往补贴政策的精细化升级，核心是实 现补贴资金的精准投放与高效利用。"过往补贴政策在执行中可能出现资格滥用、资金浪费等问题，例 如部分消费者领取资格后闲置，导致补贴资金无法及时惠及真正有消费需求的群体，同时分散的领取与 使用规则也增加了监管难度，通过统一申领入口、设置资格有效期和次数限制，能够从制度层面堵塞漏 洞，确保补贴资金流向真实消费场景。" "两新"政策进入提质阶段 实际上，自今年"两新"政策发布以来，各地纷纷加速政策落地，出台相关配套细则。 "本着'总额控制、均衡使用、先购先得、用完即止'的原则，按照'资格领取、资格绑定、购买商品、补 贴立减'的方式实施"，《实施细则》强调，补贴资格申领人、付款人、收货人须保持一致。享受补贴的 电脑、数码和智能产品须拆封、激活，核验与销售订单商品是否一致，消费者应配合拍摄相应照片。 线上领补当日有效 按照全国统一的品类和标准，《实施细则》提出，对在京个人消费者购买1级能效或水效标准的冰箱、 洗衣机、电视、空调、热水器、电脑6类家电产品，以及单件销售价格不超过6000元的手机、平板、智 能手表（手环）、智能眼镜4类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Market Regulation Administration is set to implement hundreds of standards by 2025 to support industrial upgrades and expand consumption, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and enhancing consumer goods supply-demand compatibility [1][2]. Group 1: Standards Implementation - By 2025, the Market Regulation Administration will introduce hundreds of standards across production, consumption, and recycling to support industrial upgrades and consumption expansion [1]. - The focus will be on ten traditional industries, including petrochemicals, machinery, light industry, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, textiles, shipbuilding, automobiles, and electricity, to promote high-quality development [1][2]. - A total of 174 standards will be introduced for production, aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency in industries through the integration of emerging technologies and traditional industry upgrades [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Goods Standards - The administration will develop 230 standards related to consumer goods, focusing on areas such as product exchanges, service consumption expansion, and housing renovations to enhance product and service quality [2][3]. - These standards aim to address new consumer demands for safety, quality, green, intelligent, and health aspects, thereby facilitating the upgrade of personal and household consumption [1][2]. Group 3: Circular Economy Standards - The introduction of 66 national standards will focus on the entire chain of circular industries, including second-hand product transactions, product recycling, and the use of recycled materials, to promote high-quality development in resource recycling [2]. - The goal is to establish a robust standard system for circular utilization, enhancing the overall efficiency of resource use [2]. Group 4: Mandatory Standards - The Market Regulation Administration plans to accelerate the introduction of 113 mandatory national standards, particularly in critical areas such as health, safety, and environmental protection, to strengthen the enforcement of standards [3]. - The approach will involve creating new standards, updating existing ones, and converting recommended standards into mandatory ones to ensure rigorous compliance [3].