有色金属日报 2025-12-15 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 美股 AI 科技股走弱加剧市场担忧，白银和铜价冲高后均大幅回落，铝价下挫，周五伦铝收跌 0.69% 至 2875 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 21775 元/吨。周五沪铝加权合约持仓量增加 1.6 至 67.6 万手， 期货仓单微降至 6.9 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存小幅减少，铝棒库存下滑，铝棒加工费下调，市场观 望情绪较浓。华东电解铝现货贴水期货 50 元/吨，库存减少基差报价延续反弹。外盘 L ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in China's macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, while suggesting that major economic indicators such as industrial production and consumption may stabilize in November due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.9% [4][6]. - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, up from 2.9% in the previous month [4][9]. - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7% [4][13]. Industrial Growth - Industrial added value is expected to see a slight increase, with predictions ranging from 5.0% to 5.3% year-on-year growth for November [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in market confidence, although it remains below the threshold [6][8]. Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly supported consumer spending, with related sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% year-on-year increase in total online sales, although the average daily sales showed a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous year [10]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is under pressure, with predictions indicating a further decline in November due to reduced infrastructure spending and weak manufacturing investment [13][14]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support investment in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [14][15]. Infrastructure Investment - The expansion of infrastructure REITs is seen as a key measure for stabilizing investment, with a significant number of projects already launched [16][17]. - The government has allocated substantial funds for long-term special bonds to support major investment projects, reflecting a strategic approach to infrastructure development [15][16].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity stance, with net injections of 417 billion and 2,685 billion yuan on consecutive days, indicating ongoing monetary support [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued large-scale net injections, but the funding environment showed signs of marginal tightening due to tax periods, with a net withdrawal of 1,950 billion yuan on September 18 [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months, reflecting rising downside risks in the labor market [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Investment Outlook - August economic data in China fell short of expectations, particularly in infrastructure investment, which saw an expanded year-on-year decline, highlighting persistent issues with domestic demand [3] - The ongoing weakness in the real estate market and insufficient domestic demand suggest that macroeconomic policies may continue to be accommodative, with potential increases in monetary easing [3] - The domestic bond market remains favorable, with expectations of declining bond yields, presenting better entry opportunities for investors [3] Group 3: Investment Products and Features - The Guokai ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market bonds, characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making it a viable investment option [3] - The product features include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The North China 50 Index fell by 0.30%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,093.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 112.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,200 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] ETF and Bond Market - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) saw a significant drop, down 8 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 10% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of government bonds with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2] Economic Indicators - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the service sector business activity index was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - China's dollar-denominated exports in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9% [1] Bond Market Outlook - The bond futures market has shown weak performance due to rising risk appetite in the stock market since July, alongside strong internal economic fundamentals and easing external risk factors [2] - The expectation for monetary easing remains, as the policy rate's anchoring effect is strong, limiting the space for market interest rates to rise further [2] - In the short term, both upward and downward movements in market interest rates are expected to be limited, with bond futures likely to continue in a range-bound consolidation [2]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 4.73 trillion yuan compared to March, slightly below the consensus expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan[2] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.70% year-on-year, up 0.37 percentage points from March, but slightly below the expected 8.80%[2] - New RMB loans in April were 884 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.465 trillion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 3.74 trillion yuan from March[2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The weak demand for RMB loans in April was primarily influenced by the impact of U.S. tariff policies, affecting corporate operating expectations[2] - Government bond financing increased by 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a rapid implementation of proactive fiscal policies[2] - The April data reflects a recovery trend in residential housing demand, despite the overall financing environment being impacted by external factors[1] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth in April was 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from March[2] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan in April, with household deposits down by 1.39 trillion yuan and corporate deposits down by 1.33 trillion yuan[2] - The decline in demand for short-term loans and residential loans indicates a weak financing demand in the real economy, influenced by external trade conditions[2]