宏观周报 PPI 同比增速下半年有望转正 证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 核心结论 PPI 同比增速年内有望转正。2025 年 PPI 下降 2.6%，连续三年下跌，但过 去几个月，PPI 开始企稳回升。最近一个季度，有色金属价格涨幅最大，能 源、化工、黑色价格仍在下跌。从高频数据看，短期工业品价格增长动能有 所加快，预计 PPI 继续回升。2025 年内需仍然偏弱，但外需保持较快增长。 2026 年国内宏观政策保持宽松，支持内需增长；全球流动性将保持宽松。 我们预计，PPI 同比增速将在 2026 年下半年转正，2026 年全年 PPI 可能小 幅下跌，比 2025 年跌幅明显收窄。 中观产业跟踪：工业生产小幅回落，国际天然气价格走高。高炉开工率环比 小幅下降但强于往年季节性表现，PTA/聚酯产业开工率下行，或与上游企业 检修和行业提前放假有关；轮胎开工率继续回升且强于季节性表现。受寒潮 影响，国际天然气价格大涨，美国天然气期货价格达到 5.35 美元/百万英热 单位，周涨幅高达 72%以上；国内电厂耗煤量明显走高。 大类资产：全球风险资产表现分化。截至 1 月 23 日，欧美股市走弱而新兴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rebound in the past two weeks, and there is an expectation of steel mill复产 in January. Demand decline shows off - season characteristics. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to continue the volatile and weak consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the rebar main contract on Thursday was 1,132,633 lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 47,415 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3090 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3132 yuan/ton, and closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.42% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 172 yuan/ton to the spot, which supported the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 2.71 million tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks, and was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 129,000 tons lower year - on - year. There is an expectation of steel mill复产, which will weaken price support [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country remaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year. Demand showed regional differences, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and the south having some demand resilience due to rush construction of existing projects. Pay attention to whether winter storage can drive demand in January [2]. Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons week - on - week, and the destocking slowed down. The steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a slight increase of 5,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The central economic conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, keep liquidity abundant, and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real - estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, and macro - increment demand is relatively limited, but the loose cycle provides support [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, loose policy expectations, large futures discount providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and stable coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Although short - term bullish sentiment in the copper market has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may gradually turn into a sideways trend [3] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in a wide range in the short term [8] - After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [10] - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see [16][18] - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be adjusted in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to fundamental dynamics and wait and see [21] - It is recommended to wait and see for alumina in the short term. Focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] - The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [30] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**：Friday, U.S. stocks pulled back, and concerns about the AI technology bubble increased. LME copper 3M contract closed down 2.37% to $11,552/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,550 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 50 to 165,900 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined. In China, SHFE weekly inventories increased slightly [2] - **策略观点**：The Fed's interest - rate cut and the restart of Treasury bond purchases have made liquidity expectations marginally looser. The domestic central economic work conference set a positive policy tone. Although short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn into a sideways trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 90,800 - 92,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME copper 3M is 11,450 - 11,750 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **行情资讯**：The weakening of U.S. AI technology stocks intensified market concerns, and aluminum prices declined. On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 0.69% to $2,875/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,775 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 16,000 to 676,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased slightly to 69,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories declined [4] - **策略观点**：Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at low levels in the same period of previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and loose macro policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,600 - 22,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% to 17,134 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to $1,984.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 130 tons to 2,290 tons [7] - **策略观点**：Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead has declined marginally, the operating rate of secondary lead has continued to rise, and the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally. Domestic lead ingot social inventories remain at relatively low levels, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide - range in the short term [8] Zinc - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.68% to 23,621 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, zinc ingot social inventories decreased by 780 tons to 12,820 tons [9] - **策略观点**：Visible zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc concentrate TC continues to decline. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains [10] Tin - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 329,400 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous day. The start - up rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at a high level but lack upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the overall market trading is light. This week, the national main tin ingot social inventory was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12] - **策略观点**：Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited when downstream inventories are low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **行情资讯**：On Friday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 114,550 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron remained stable [15] - **策略观点**：Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. However, with the stabilization of nickel pig iron prices and the warming of the macro environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][18] Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 94,569 yuan, up 0.21% from the previous working day and 4.30% for the week [20] - **策略观点**：Currently, the market is divided on supply release and demand realization. In the short term, the supply - demand mismatch of domestic lithium carbonate has not been reversed. The probability of lithium prices being adjusted in a range is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 95,000 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.39% to 2,544 yuan/ton. The futures warrant on Friday was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day [23] - **策略观点**：After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine has resumed production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**：On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. Social inventories increased to 1.0636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**：The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is generally light. The supply pressure is expected to be further relieved. The stainless - steel market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation and lacking a clear direction in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**：On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy rose slightly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 0.72% to 21,115 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased by 20 tons to 4,890 tons [29] - **策略观点**：The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong support for prices. However, demand is relatively volatile, and delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation [30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in China's macroeconomic indicators due to weak domestic demand and increased external uncertainties, while suggesting that major economic indicators such as industrial production and consumption may stabilize in November due to coordinated policy efforts and resilient external demand [3][4]. Economic Indicators - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in November is 5.0%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.9% [4][6]. - The forecast for the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods in November is 3.09%, up from 2.9% in the previous month [4][9]. - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for fixed asset investment from January to November is -2.1%, lower than the previous month's -1.7% [4][13]. Industrial Growth - Industrial added value is expected to see a slight increase, with predictions ranging from 5.0% to 5.3% year-on-year growth for November [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.2%, indicating a slight recovery in market confidence, although it remains below the threshold [6][8]. Consumer Spending - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly supported consumer spending, with related sales exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan and benefiting over 360 million people [9]. - The "Double 11" shopping festival contributed to a 17.6% year-on-year increase in total online sales, although the average daily sales showed a decline of 6.0% compared to the previous year [10]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is under pressure, with predictions indicating a further decline in November due to reduced infrastructure spending and weak manufacturing investment [13][14]. - The introduction of new policy financial tools aims to support investment in high-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors [14][15]. Infrastructure Investment - The expansion of infrastructure REITs is seen as a key measure for stabilizing investment, with a significant number of projects already launched [16][17]. - The government has allocated substantial funds for long-term special bonds to support major investment projects, reflecting a strategic approach to infrastructure development [15][16].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a loose liquidity stance, with net injections of 417 billion and 2,685 billion yuan on consecutive days, indicating ongoing monetary support [1][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued large-scale net injections, but the funding environment showed signs of marginal tightening due to tax periods, with a net withdrawal of 1,950 billion yuan on September 18 [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate cut in nine months, reflecting rising downside risks in the labor market [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Investment Outlook - August economic data in China fell short of expectations, particularly in infrastructure investment, which saw an expanded year-on-year decline, highlighting persistent issues with domestic demand [3] - The ongoing weakness in the real estate market and insufficient domestic demand suggest that macroeconomic policies may continue to be accommodative, with potential increases in monetary easing [3] - The domestic bond market remains favorable, with expectations of declining bond yields, presenting better entry opportunities for investors [3] Group 3: Investment Products and Features - The Guokai ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market bonds, characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making it a viable investment option [3] - The product features include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The North China 50 Index fell by 0.30%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,093.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 112.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,200 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] ETF and Bond Market - The 30-year government bond ETF (511130) saw a significant drop, down 8 basis points, with a trading volume exceeding 1.6 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 10% [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF was established in March 2024 and is one of only two long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the "Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-Year Government Bond Index" [2] - The index reflects the overall performance of government bonds with a duration of approximately 21 years, making it highly sensitive to interest rate changes [2] Economic Indicators - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policies, including more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1] - The manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, while the service sector business activity index was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - China's dollar-denominated exports in July grew by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9% [1] Bond Market Outlook - The bond futures market has shown weak performance due to rising risk appetite in the stock market since July, alongside strong internal economic fundamentals and easing external risk factors [2] - The expectation for monetary easing remains, as the policy rate's anchoring effect is strong, limiting the space for market interest rates to rise further [2] - In the short term, both upward and downward movements in market interest rates are expected to be limited, with bond futures likely to continue in a range-bound consolidation [2]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 4.73 trillion yuan compared to March, slightly below the consensus expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan[2] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.70% year-on-year, up 0.37 percentage points from March, but slightly below the expected 8.80%[2] - New RMB loans in April were 884 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.465 trillion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 3.74 trillion yuan from March[2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The weak demand for RMB loans in April was primarily influenced by the impact of U.S. tariff policies, affecting corporate operating expectations[2] - Government bond financing increased by 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a rapid implementation of proactive fiscal policies[2] - The April data reflects a recovery trend in residential housing demand, despite the overall financing environment being impacted by external factors[1] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth in April was 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from March[2] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan in April, with household deposits down by 1.39 trillion yuan and corporate deposits down by 1.33 trillion yuan[2] - The decline in demand for short-term loans and residential loans indicates a weak financing demand in the real economy, influenced by external trade conditions[2]