行业研究 建筑施工行业 2026 年建筑施工行业展望： 供需结构深度调整，信用分化趋势显现 工商部 | 肖尧 2026 年 2 月 6 日 摘要 2025 年，我国建筑施工行业进入调整与转型阶段。行业供给端形成"高端产能不足、低 端产能过剩"的结构性矛盾，行业正处于从同质化规模供给向差异化能力供给转型的关键阶 段。需求端正经历深刻转变，增长动力从传统房地产开发逐步转向以"两重"建设、城市更 新、绿色智能建筑为代表的多元领域。融资端，债券发行集中于高信用等级央国企，行业整 体债务规模较大，需持续关注债券兑付情况。预计 2026 年，我国建筑施工行业将继续向高质 量、专业化方向演进，政策方向将聚焦国家重点战略与新兴领域。行业整体信用质量将保持 稳定，但需重点关注行业结构性调整带来的信用风险分化。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 2025 年，我国建筑业总产值进入负增长区间，行业整体进入调整期。2025 年，我国建筑 业总产值同比由 326,501.11 亿元降至 303,818.33 亿元，2025 年 1～9 月出现近 5 年来的首次 累计负增长，并于年内延续下降趋势。同期，我国建筑业新签合同额为 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on promoting effective investment to stabilize economic growth and enhance development potential, with an emphasis on infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, emerging industries, and future industries [3] - The State Council has outlined measures to increase central budget investment, optimize the use of special bonds, and leverage new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [3][5] - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, highlighting the need for policies to reverse this trend [3] Group 2 - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in super long-term special bonds has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in industrial and energy sectors, driving total investment over 460 billion yuan [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has organized a list of early "two heavy" construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling about 295 billion yuan [4] - The focus of the central budget investment is on public sectors that require concentrated efforts, with over 75 billion yuan allocated for urban renewal, water conservancy, ecological protection, and pollution control [4] Group 3 - The NDRC aims to enhance investment efficiency by promoting both material and human capital, with a focus on projects that directly invest in people [5] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasizes the role of central enterprises in expanding effective investment and supporting sustainable development [5] - In 2026, central enterprises will continue to increase investment while focusing on major projects that support public welfare and consumption [5] Group 4 - A comprehensive policy package aimed at stimulating private investment has been implemented, including loan interest subsidies and risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprises [6][7] - The policy aims to lower financing costs and reduce barriers for private enterprises, addressing the challenges of expensive and difficult financing [7]

Core Insights - The Chinese government has initiated a significant investment plan for 2026, allocating approximately 295 billion yuan for "two major" construction projects aimed at expanding effective investment and stabilizing economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Overview - The investment plan includes a focus on critical areas such as urban-rural integration, regional coordinated development, food security, energy resource security, ecological safety, and technological self-reliance, which are essential for national development and rejuvenation [1]. - In 2025, investment in the pipeline transportation industry is expected to grow by 36.0%, with an acceleration of 19.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Long-term Strategy - The "two major" construction projects are designed not only for immediate benefits but also for long-term advantages, addressing current economic challenges and enhancing stability [2]. - Various regions are actively promoting "two major" construction projects, focusing on strategic needs and significant projects to optimize investment structure and support domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Soft Construction - The initiative emphasizes the importance of both "hard investment" in infrastructure and "soft construction" through supportive policies and mechanisms, such as integrated wastewater treatment systems in various regions [2].

Group 1 - The central government has approved an early batch of "two重" construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan for 2026, aimed at expanding effective investment [1] - Investment is seen as both current demand and future supply, with significant potential for growth despite a slowdown in investment growth due to various complex factors [1] - In 2025, investments in pipeline transportation are expected to grow by 36.0%, internet and related services by 23.8%, and multimodal transport and logistics by 22.9%, indicating a positive trend in the "two重" construction efforts [1] Group 2 - The "two重" construction not only addresses major national issues but also focuses on urgent matters affecting the public, such as improving childcare services and higher education [2] - The strategic deployment of "two重" construction is essential for long-term planning and addressing current economic challenges, emphasizing the need for proactive measures [2] - The "十五五" period is critical for achieving socialist modernization, and "two重" construction is a key driver that requires coordinated efforts across various sectors [2] Group 3 - Various regions are actively promoting "two重" construction by focusing on strategic needs and major projects, particularly in urban-rural integration and energy security [3] - "Two重" construction involves not only hard investments in infrastructure but also soft construction, such as integrated wastewater treatment systems to enhance efficiency [3] - High-quality advancement of "two重" construction is expected to create new supply and stimulate demand, thereby enhancing the internal dynamics and reliability of domestic circulation [3]

Group 1: Major Projects and Investment Initiatives - The government is advancing the "Two Heavy" construction projects, optimizing the structure of government investment, and increasing the proportion of government investment in livelihood projects to boost demand [3][8] - A series of significant high-tech industry projects are being planned for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to strengthen innovation-driven industrial support [3][8] - Investment strategies will focus on combining investments in physical assets and human capital, enhancing market-driven effective investment growth, and utilizing new policy financial tools [9] Group 2: National Unified Market Development - The construction of a national unified market will be comprehensively advanced, including the formulation of regulations and lists of prohibited and encouraged investment activities [10] - The initiative aims to break down local protectionism and market segmentation, addressing issues like disorderly competition and local government procurement [10] - There will be a shift from price competition to value competition, with improvements in market access, fair competition, and capacity exit mechanisms [10] Group 3: Green Transition and Infrastructure Upgrades - The green transition is accelerating towards the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on building a new power system and enhancing grid adjustment capabilities [11] - Key industries will undergo energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations, promoting the development of zero-carbon parks and factories [11] - Over 29,000 smart recycling facilities have been added nationwide, improving the recycling and circular economy framework [11] Group 4: Regional Coordinated Development - The government is promoting regional coordinated development strategies, enhancing the role of key regions like the Yangtze and Yellow River economic belts [12] - The central and western regions are being supported to address public service and infrastructure gaps, with significant potential for industrial transfer and domestic demand expansion [12] - Future strategies will focus on leveraging the advantages and resources of the central and western regions to contribute to modernization efforts [12]

Group 1 - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) reached 48,518.6 billion yuan, driven by large-scale equipment upgrades and the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Industrial investment grew by 2.6% year-on-year, contributing 0.9 percentage points to overall investment growth, with mining investment up by 2.5%, manufacturing investment up by 0.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply investment up by 9.1% [1] - Infrastructure investment in key areas saw significant growth, with pipeline transportation investment increasing by 36.0%, internet and related services investment up by 23.8%, and multimodal transport and agency investment rising by 22.9% [1] Group 2 - Equipment and tool purchase investment grew by 11.8% year-on-year, contributing 1.8 percentage points to overall investment growth, and accounted for 18.0% of total investment, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from the previous year [1] - High-tech service industry investment increased by 3.5% year-on-year, representing 5.6% of total service industry investment, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous year [2] Group 3 - Investment in forestry rose by 28.5%, fisheries investment increased by 12.4%, and investment in electricity and heat production and supply grew by 11.1% [3] - The investment in agricultural and sideline food processing increased by 9.2%, while wholesale and retail investment grew by 5.6%, and accommodation and catering investment rose by 5.5% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of investment as both current demand and future supply, with a focus on expanding effective investment to stabilize growth and enhance domestic demand [1] - The "Two Major" construction projects, which include significant water conservancy projects, are highlighted, with a total investment of approximately 134.07 billion yuan aimed at irrigating 1.85 million acres and providing stable water sources for about 230,000 people [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to allocate around 295 billion yuan for the "Two Major" construction projects in 2026, accelerating the pace of fund disbursement and utilization [2] Group 2 - Various regions are integrating project construction with supporting reforms to ensure the sustainability and effectiveness of the "Two Major" construction initiatives, particularly in urban wastewater management [3] - The role of private investment in stabilizing growth and employment is underscored, with government investment funds being utilized to stimulate private sector participation, including the establishment of over 600 sub-funds to support emerging industries [4] - Recent government meetings have proposed measures to create a favorable investment environment for private capital, including loan interest subsidies and risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprise bonds [5] Group 3 - The focus on improving investment in human capital is evident, with projects like urban renewal in Guangzhou aimed at enhancing living conditions and consumer environments [7] - Investment in human capital is seen as essential for driving high-quality economic development, with various initiatives targeting healthcare, elderly care, and childcare services to meet public needs [7][8] - The integration of investment in both physical infrastructure and human resources is crucial for generating new supply and stimulating demand, thereby enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of investment as both current demand and future supply, with a focus on expanding effective investment to support domestic demand and stabilize growth [1] - The "Two Major" construction projects, which include significant water conservancy projects, are highlighted as a means to address infrastructure shortfalls and enhance investment structure, with a total investment of approximately 295 billion yuan planned for 2026 [2] - Various regions are accelerating "Two Major" construction projects, focusing on urban-rural integration, regional coordination, and energy security, which will further highlight the role of these projects in addressing weaknesses [2][3] Group 2 - The activation of private investment is crucial for stabilizing growth and employment, with government investment funds playing a key role in guiding and increasing private investment [4] - Policies to support private investment include loan interest subsidies for small and micro enterprises and the establishment of special guarantee plans, aimed at reducing financing barriers and costs for businesses [5] - The ongoing efforts to stimulate private investment are showing positive trends, with a focus on practical and innovative approaches [6] Group 3 - Investment in human capital is being prioritized alongside physical investment, with various urban renewal projects underway to enhance living conditions and consumer environments [7] - The investment in human capital reflects the objective of transforming economic development and aligns with the people-centered development philosophy, focusing on sectors like health, elderly care, and childcare [8] - The integration of investment in both physical and human capital is seen as essential for creating new supply and stimulating new demand, which is critical for enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of new policies for equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in subsidies in 2026, aimed at stimulating consumption and supporting economic growth [2][3][4] - The 2026 policy expands the scope of equipment updates to include the installation of elevators in old residential areas and support for various sectors such as elderly care and fire rescue [2][3] - The subsidy for new energy passenger vehicles is set at 12% of the vehicle price, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, while the subsidy for fuel vehicles is 10% with a cap of 15,000 yuan [3][4] - The new policy simplifies the categories of consumer goods eligible for trade-in subsidies, reducing from 12 to 6 categories, focusing on high-efficiency products [3][4] Group 2 - The 2026 budget for early investment in "two heavy" construction projects is approximately 2,950 billion yuan, with a significant increase in funding for urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland [5][6] - The new personal housing sales tax policy reduces the tax rate for properties sold within two years from 5% to 3%, while properties sold after two years are exempt from tax [7][8][9] - The national fiscal work conference emphasizes the continuation of proactive fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, support innovation, and promote green transformation [10][11] - The State Council meeting outlines measures to promote cross-border trade facilitation, enhancing logistics efficiency and supporting new business models like cross-border e-commerce [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent implementation of the "Two New" subsidy policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment, highlighting changes in subsidy amounts and categories for various consumer goods and infrastructure projects [2][9]. Consumption Subsidies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 62.5 billion yuan for the first batch of subsidies for consumer goods recycling in 2026, with a total of 81 billion yuan planned for the year [2]. - The subsidy for home appliances has been refined to focus on six categories: refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price and a cap of 1,500 yuan per item [2]. - The scope of digital product subsidies has been expanded to include smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, smart glasses, and smart home products, including those designed for elderly care [2]. Automotive Subsidies - The subsidy structure for automobiles has shifted from fixed amounts to percentage-based reimbursements. For new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the sales price is provided, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, while for fuel vehicles, it is 10% with a cap of 15,000 yuan [3]. - The subsidy for vehicle replacement has also been adjusted, with new energy vehicles receiving 8% of the sales price (up to 15,000 yuan) and fuel vehicles receiving 6% (up to 13,000 yuan) [3]. Investment Initiatives - The NDRC has announced an early release of the "Two Heavy" construction project list and central budget investment plans totaling approximately 295 billion yuan, aimed at accelerating the disbursement and utilization of funds [3][11]. - Major infrastructure projects have been approved, with total investments exceeding 400 billion yuan, including transportation, water resource allocation, and energy facilities [3][11].