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宏观研究-中国正在输出通缩吗?(英文)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-31 09:47
Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report is that China's exported deflation to Japan is primarily driven by domestic supply and demand imbalances rather than US tariffs, with a limited overall impact on Japan's inflation trends [2][8][54] - Over the past few years, the prices of Chinese goods exported to Japan have decreased by approximately 15% relative to similar imports from other countries, with about half of this decline attributed to the depreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar [12][34][50] - The report highlights that the decline in prices is particularly evident in industrial raw materials, while durable consumer goods and general machinery have also seen price reductions, although the impact on electrical equipment and non-durable goods has been less pronounced [39][40][41] Group 2 - The direct impact of Chinese imports on Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is limited, accounting for just over 20% of Japan's total import value, with a cumulative effect of about 0.4% on Japan's new core CPI [8][12][50] - Future projections indicate that the negative contribution of China's exported deflation to Japan's CPI will be around 0.2 percentage points, with peak impacts expected to be less than 0.1 percentage points, suggesting no immediate need to adjust Japan's inflation forecasts [2][34][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring China's economic policies and the real estate market, as these factors will influence future trends in Chinese export prices and their effects on Japan [2][8][54]