Report Title - "出栏增消费弱 猪价继续下跌 —— 国信期货生猪周报" [2] Report Date - July 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the past week, the live hog spot price continued to decline due to high temperatures leading to active sales by farmers and weak consumer demand. The futures price dropped sharply on Wednesday and then rebounded slightly, with the basis weakening. Fundamentally, based on piglet birth data, the theoretical slaughter volume will gradually increase in the future, and feed production and sales data also confirm the trend of increased supply. In terms of consumption, July is still the off - season, and consumption will gradually strengthen after August, but the overall market supply - demand is relatively loose. In terms of rhythm, recently affected by high temperatures, the industry is in a seasonal weight - reduction stage. The average weight from commercial institution samples generally shows a downward trend, but the price difference between fat and standard pigs is slightly stronger than the same period, indicating a decrease in fat pig supply. In August, the industry may enter the weight - gain stage again, and with improved consumption, the spot price is expected to form a double - top structure. For futures, LH09 can be traded with an oscillatory mindset and short - term long positions can be attempted on dips, while LH11 and LH01 should be shorted on rebounds [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot price continued to fall last week due to high - temperature - induced active sales by farmers and weak consumer demand. Futures dropped on Wednesday and rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis. Future supply is expected to increase, and consumption will gradually improve after August, but overall supply - demand remains loose. The industry is in a weight - reduction stage currently, and may enter a weight - gain stage in August, with the spot price potentially forming a double - top structure. Different trading strategies are proposed for different futures contracts [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 3. Live Hog Futures Market - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 4. Live Hog Spot Market - Spot prices in various regions are presented in a table, showing a general downward trend [17]. 5. Live Hog Spot: Fat - to - Standard Pig Price Difference - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 6. Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 7. Changes in the Number of Reproductive Sows - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 8. Changes in Piglets - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 9. Confirmation between Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 10. Live Hog Slaughter Situation - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 11. Not mentioned in the table of contents - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 12. Frozen Meat Market Dynamics - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 13. Cost and Profit - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 14. Comprehensive Monitoring of Live Hog Average Weight - Not provided in the content for detailed summary 15. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - The report details the reserve response mechanisms for both price over - decline and over - increase situations, including national and local reserve - related regulations and conditions for starting reserve purchases and sales [69]. 16. Multi - caliber Comparison - Not provided in the content for detailed summary