消息面 数据显示，截至1月9日当周，自繁自养生猪养殖利润为亏损11.54元/头，前一周为亏损34.59元/头，外购仔猪养殖利润为亏损2.31元/头，前一周为 亏损48.35元/头。 华储网发布关于2026年1月15日中央储备冻猪肉(西藏地区库点)轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，本次收储竞价交易挂牌800吨。 昨日中国生猪日度均价12.6元/公斤，环比涨0.02元/公斤，基准交割地河南市场生猪均价12.98元/公斤，环比跌0.02元/公斤，四川、山东涨，广 东、辽宁平。 机构观点 混沌天成期货： 总的来说，近期生猪市场供需双弱，现货元旦后波动率收窄，短期盘面交易节奏在随整体商品指数的回落而降温。后续来看，情绪降温后基本面 对猪价指引将加强，供应端或在1月中下旬进入放量释放的窗口，需要密切关注1月集团计划出栏与实际出栏节奏，以及临近1月底开启的春节备 货行情。策略上，供应矛盾后移带来的释放压力仍存，03/05合约仍然偏空看待，但情绪较强的情况下不宜直接进场，等待03合约给出12000元/吨 以上估值后考虑布空。 南华期货（603093）： 前期在少量二育进场叠加部分规模厂惜售情绪的影响下，标猪价格有所回升，但随着 ...

当前，猪价回暖主要影响因素是生猪出栏回落，叠加新年元旦节日需求上升。后市，预计近期猪价将保 持稳中有跌态势，整体呈现窄幅波动运行特征。从产能来看，供应端仍面临基础产能过剩、二育集中出 栏等压力。但随着生猪养殖业全面亏损收窄叠加调控政策持续落实，生猪市场供需情况逐步改善，生猪 出栏节奏平稳有序，一定程度上缓解了猪肉阶段性供给压力。 从消费来看，元旦节后猪肉鲜销需求转弱，屠宰企业订单量或有所缩减，白条走货节奏偏缓；同时，消 费结构变化也进一步影响猪肉消费。随着人们生活质量的不断提升，居民更追求猪肉的新鲜口感，且牛 羊肉、鸡肉、海鲜等替代品日益丰富，对高盐、高脂肪的腌腊制品需求持续收缩，腌腊量逐年降低；同 时，2026年春节在2月中旬，较往年偏晚，1月上旬尚未进入集中备货期，因此目前生猪需求虽有好转但 空间受限。所以，生猪供应宽松大势仍在，猪价反弹后继续上行动力受限。具体行情波动还受养殖企业 出栏节奏影响。 建议业内需关注政策对市场的实时影响，以及猪价下跌后的二次育肥节奏、肥标价差、出栏体重等因 素，合理把握出栏节奏。 随着肥猪出栏价格走高，产业亏损额度继续收窄。随着生猪价格增长及养殖场户补栏积极性提升，仔猪 市场 ...

1月9日，记者从山东省畜牧总站了解到，近期随着生猪出栏数量回落，叠加新年元旦节日需求上升，我 省猪价开始上涨。 据全省监测样本县数据，新年第1周（2025年12月29日-2026年1月4日）全省肥猪出栏均价为12.57元/公 斤，同比降低21.97%，环比升高6.44%。具体数据，本周我省猪肉均价为22.38元/公斤，同比降低 20.30%，环比回升3.85%。 从消费来看，元旦节后猪肉鲜销需求转弱，屠宰企业订单量或有所缩减，白条走货节奏偏缓；同时，消 费结构变化也进一步影响猪肉消费。随着人们生活质量的不断提升，居民更追求猪肉的新鲜口感，且牛 羊肉、鸡肉、海鲜等替代品日益丰富，对高盐、高脂肪的腌腊制品需求持续收缩，腌腊量逐年降低；同 时，2026年春节在2月中旬，较往年偏晚，1月上旬尚未进入集中备货期，因此目前生猪需求虽有好转但 空间受限。所以，生猪供应宽松大势仍在，猪价反弹后继续上行动力受限。具体行情波动还受养殖企业 出栏节奏影响。 建议业内需关注政策对市场的实时影响，以及猪价下跌后的二次育肥节奏、肥标价差、出栏体重等因 素，合理把握出栏节奏。 （大众报业·农村大众记者 王星） 随着肥猪出栏价格走高，产业亏 ...

近月反弹抛空 生猪月报 2026/01/04 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上月国内猪价强于预期，冬至前猪价表现异常坚挺，冬至后更是大幅反弹，低价刺激消费、春节偏晚引发需求后置以及大猪结构性偏 紧共同促成了猪价此轮预期外的反弹，短期猪价走强的逻辑依旧较硬；具体看，河南均价月涨1.34元至12.7元/公斤，月内最高13.2元/公斤， 四川均价月涨1.5元至12.8元/公斤，月内最高12.8元/公斤，广东均价月涨1.7元至13.06元/公斤；1月企业计划出栏量或减少，但部分集团或将 2月出栏量提前，散户大猪亦有逐步兑现需要，因此整体供应依旧充裕，需求端因春节偏晚，集中备货或较少，仅在月底受春节前备货支撑，本 月价格或先弱后稳、月底翘尾。 ◆ 供应端：10月官方母猪存栏为3990万头，环比回落1.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多2.3 ...

数据来源:国会期货行 1.2 品种价格 生猪期货各合约涨跌不一，品种持仓量 355353 手，较上一交易 日增加 8016 手。 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 成文日期：20251226 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:生猪 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 生猪期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251226），期货品种生猪 lh2603 合约呈现震荡走势, 当日收至 11645 点，较昨日结算价上涨 1.48%，全日成交 11.72 万 手，持仓量 17.15 万手。 图：生猪 lh2603 分时图 图:生猪期货日行情表 | 品种名 标 | | 合约 | | 最低价 | 收盘价 | | 前结算价 结算价 涨跌 涨跌 | | 持仓量 | | 奇仓量变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生猪 | Ih2 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证 （1）本周市场回顾（12.22-12.28） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强 78。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 21.1 元/公斤（上周 21.1 元/公斤），本周河南生 猪价格 12.08 元/公斤（上周 11.43 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1546 元/头（上周 1546 元/ 头）。供应端，冬至后，企业缩量出栏，散户惜售情绪高涨，供应明显缩量；需求端，冬至消费触及相对 高位，本周需求降量，但仍处于旺季阶段。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.54KG（上周 124.79KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.2%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强震荡。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11495 元/吨，最低价为 11080 元/吨，收盘价为 11150 元/吨（上周同期 11485 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2601 合约基差为 630 元/ 吨（上周同期-55 元/吨）。 （2）下周市场展望（12.29-1.4） 生猪现货价格弱势震荡。11 月整体出栏进度偏慢，饲料增量印证基础存量大，冬至旺季 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（12.15-12.21） 现货市场，生猪价格偏强震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 21.1 元/公斤（上周 21.1 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.78 元/公斤（上周 11.43 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1546 元/头（上周 1546 元/ 头）。供应端，冬至旺季前，企业放量出栏，散户顺势出栏，供应明显增量，但幅度有限；需求端，降温 及冬至消费持续增量，南北宰量创新高。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.79KG（上周 124.59KG），出栏均重环比上升 0.16%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强震荡。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11495 元/吨，最低价为 11080 元/吨，收盘价为 11150 元/吨（上周同期 11485 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2601 合约基差为 6 ...

供需双增，生猪延续震荡走势 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 生猪市场周报 联系电话：059586778969 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：生猪价格先涨后跌，震荡波动，主力合约2603合约周度收平。 行情展望：规模场正常出栏，前期增重的肥猪的积极出栏，叠加受病疫影响，部分地区积极出栏标猪， 整体供应增加。需求端，腌腊灌肠活动持续增量，终端消费上升，屠宰企业开机率连续回升，存在季 节性消费支撑。总体来说，供需双双增加局面延续，维持博弈状态，生猪价格以震荡行情为主。近月 基差回归，主力盘面价格表现相对疲弱。 「 期货市场情况」 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 生猪价格先涨后跌，震荡波动，主力合约2603合约周度收平。 4 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货净持仓净空增加，期货仓单823张 图2、生猪前20名持仓变化 本周期货震荡 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：wind 瑞达期货研究院 图3、生猪期货仓单情况 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月08日 生猪期货：底部震荡偏弱 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周全国生猪现货价格先涨后跌呈弱势：12月1日全国生猪均价11.48元/公斤， 当日26个省份猪价上涨，华南地区因腌腊需求零星启动涨幅显著达0.2-0.4元/公斤；但后续价格持续走弱， 3 日全国生猪均价降至11.27元/公斤，23个省份均价下跌；5日外三元生猪均价跌至11.30元/公斤；6日多地 价格跌破前期低点，华南、西南多地猪价继续下探，仅华北、东北部分区域小幅反弹，南北价差拉大至2元 /斤。全周价格整体回落，同比跌幅超29%。 供应端方面：周养殖端出栏或继续增量，价格下行趋势下，散户认卖程度高，集中出栏增加。因此本 周供应端压力偏大。需求端方面，终端消费恢复缓慢，屠宰企业开工率和宰量虽然均有增加，需求好转， 但幅度依旧一般，短线难以形成强有力支撑。 综合来看：市场供大供应格局尚未改变，缺乏持续上涨动力，整体价格重心下移，不过价格已然低位， 下行空间有限，暂不会出现大幅下行可能。 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].