现货压力提前兑现 生猪月报 2025/10/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：市场供压集中兑现，同时假日前后的消费不及预期，9月至今生猪现货出现明显下跌，同时体重未见明显下降，肥标差环比小升但 绝对高度有限，散户栏位下滑、同比偏低；具体看，河南均价月落2.52元至11.3元/公斤，月内最高14.26元/公斤，四川均价月落2.1元至 11.16元/公斤，月内最高13.8元/公斤，广东均价月落2.7元至12.02元/公斤；9月份计划完成度不高，10月份供应依旧充足，理论和计划出 栏规模偏大，同时消费环比小幅下滑，预计价格以弱势整理为主，下旬随着降温到来有小幅反弹可能。 ◆ 供应端：8月官方母猪存栏为4036万头，环比小落6万头，幅度0.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.5%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或导致25 年基本面弱于2 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 28 日 生猪：假期将至，旺季不旺 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（9.22-9.28） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 24.55 元/公斤（上周 25.35 元/公斤），本周河 南生猪价格 12.58 元/公斤（上周 12.93 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1590 元/头（上周 1590 元/ 头）。供应端，集团出栏进度仍偏慢，散户出栏意愿维持提升，供应仍宽松；需求端，下旬双节备货及降 温双重刺激，宰量上升。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.66KG（上周 124.72KG），出栏 均重环比下降 0.05%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2511 合约最高价为 12920 元/吨，最低价为 12570 元/吨，收盘价为 12575 元/吨（上周同期 12 ...

另从周度数据来看，本周（9月11日至17日当周）全国生猪均价为13.62元／公斤，环比下跌2.06%，较 上周下跌0.29元／公斤。本周全国屠宰企业开工均率为32.63%，环比下跌0.82%，较上周下跌0.27个百 分点。 本周全国生猪均价进一步下行，创年内新低。供应端压力显著，出栏量环比上涨，市场猪源充裕；需求 端消费提振乏力，开学备货提振效果不及预期，白条走货滞缓未有改善。本周生猪市场在供应压力和消 费疲软的双重打压下弱势运行，市场观望情绪较重，预计下周猪价偏弱震汤。 编辑：吴郑思 另外，外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.51元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.01元／ 公斤，低于平均调运成本0.55元／公斤。 综合分析，今日全国各省猪价普遍回落，创年内新低。供应端来看，集团场出栏积极性不减，需求端则 表现疲软，下游采购意愿一般，预计明日猪价继续下跌。 新华财经北京9月18日电 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年9月18日，31个省（自治区、直辖 市）外三元生猪价格0涨29跌2平，呈稳中下跌趋势。当天价格监测情况显示，全国生猪均价为13.32元 ／公斤，较昨日下跌0.09元／公斤。北京市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that the pig price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of pigs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the pig price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the pig price may rebound at the end of the year. In this case, an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the change in the slaughter weight of live pigs. The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 9,219 lots in positions today, with a total position of about 94,100 lots. The highest price was 13,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,995 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs may strengthen. The market has both bearish and bullish logics. The bearish factors include slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in September and October. The bullish factors include weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather turns cool, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will be in a volatile adjustment phase. The core logic is that, based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle may form. If this cycle occurs, the pig price is expected to rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread strategy between the 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not an investment recommendation) [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 17, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.95 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.99% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 13.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg or 1.14%. In Sichuan, it was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.78%. Among the futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan/ton or 1.24%; the 03 contract remained unchanged at 13,005 yuan/ton; the 05 contract was 13,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15%; the 07 contract was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton or 0.42%; the 09 contract was 12,985 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton or 0.88%; the 11 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 1.22%. The main basis in Henan was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 33.33% [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking No detailed summary information provided other than the display of data charts, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between 01 - 03 contracts [14].

Group 1 - In August 2025, Shennong Group sold 166,400 pigs, with a revenue of 285 million yuan, showing a decline compared to July [1] - The total sales of Shennong Group from January to August 2025 reached 1.8806 million pigs, generating a revenue of 3.116 billion yuan [1] - In August 2025, the average selling price of commercial pigs for Shennong Group was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 5.84% from July [2] Group 2 - Tianbang Food reported a sale of 529,700 commercial pigs in August 2025, with a revenue of 621 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.32% in sales volume and 9.43% in revenue compared to the previous month [2] - From January to August 2025, Tianbang Food sold 4.0246 million commercial pigs, with a revenue of 5.45 billion yuan, and an average selling price of 16.05 yuan/kg [2] - The overall trend in the domestic pig market has been downward in recent months [2] Group 3 - Muyuan Foods sold 7.001 million commercial pigs in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, with an average selling price of 13.51 yuan/kg [3] - Wen's Food sold 3.2457 million pigs in August 2025, generating a revenue of 4.825 billion yuan, with an average selling price of 13.9 yuan/kg [3] - Recent analysis indicates a potential recovery in pig market demand in September, although supply pressures remain significant [3]

9月7日晚间神农集团（605296）、天邦食品（002124）披露了8月份养殖业务主要经营数据。 神农集团公告显示，当月公司销售生猪16.64万头(其中：商品猪销售15.56万头，仔猪销售0.51万头)，销 售收入2.85亿元，均较7月份有所下滑。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪4.87万头。 2025年1—8月，公司共销售生猪188.06万头(其中：商品猪160.14万头，仔猪销售24.27万头)，销售收入 31.16亿元。其中向集团内部屠宰企业销售生猪29.14万头。 2025年8月份，神农集团商品猪价格呈现下降趋势，商品猪销售均价13.87元/公斤，比2025年7月份下降 5.84%。 当日天邦食品披露的数据也显示，8月该公司商品猪销售均价为15.02元/公斤(商品肥猪均价为13.71元/公 斤)，环比下滑7.22%。 2025年1—8月，天邦食品销售商品猪402.46万头(其中仔猪销售135.78万头)，销售收入54.5亿元，销售均 价16.05元/公斤(商品肥猪均价为14.61元/公斤)，同比变动分别为-1%、-4.76%、-8.95%。 近月来，国内生猪市场价格整体呈现下行态势。 作为行业龙头，牧原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - **Demand Side**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed**: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply rhythm is expected to gradually recover, and there is pressure on supply due to the peak of the previous increase cycle in the inventory of breeding sows in September and the increase in the number of newborn piglets in the past six months. The planned monthly slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. - On the demand side, there is a slight recovery in demand due to centralized procurement by schools at the beginning of the semester, procurement for the Ghost Festival, and the decrease in temperature in the north, leading to a continuous increase in the slaughterhouse's operating rate. - At the beginning of the month, the slowdown in slaughter and the slight recovery in demand led to an increase in spot prices. However, due to market expectations of supply in September, futures prices were weak, and the basis strengthened. - As the slaughter rhythm recovers and supply increases, and after the centralized procurement by schools before the Ghost Festival and at the beginning of the semester ends, demand growth is limited. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, pig prices may face pressure and mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. It is recommended to conduct short - term bearish trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2511 dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure exists as the slaughter rhythm will recover and the supply of breeding sows and newborn piglets suggests an increase. Demand has a slight recovery but is limited after the special procurement periods end. Pig prices may be under pressure and operate in a weak and volatile manner. Short - term bearish trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 of pig futures dropped 1.7% this week [6][10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 1222 lots to 14,854 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 430, unchanged from last week [12][16]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 255 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Basis**: This week, the basis of the September contract was 820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 575 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Price**: The average national pig market price was 13.90 yuan/kg this week, up 0.16 yuan/kg from last week and 0.72% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, down 0.55 yuan/kg from last week and 9.88% from the same period last month [34]. - **Other Prices**: The national pork market price was 24.81 yuan/kg in the week of August 28th, down 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The pig - grain ratio was 5.89 as of August 20th, down 0.05 from the previous week [38][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.025%, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. In August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [48]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, an increase of 7.16 million from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million year - on - year. In August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [54]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.56% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. In July, the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 473,700, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 54.30%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid pigs this week was 123.41 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [59]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 5th, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 126.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 52.65 yuan/head; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 22.17 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20.42 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.23 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 0.02 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - crossbred chickens was 1.00 yuan/head [64]. - **Import Situation**: In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative imported pork was 630,000 tons, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons. In July, the imported pork was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [65][69]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of the week of September 5th, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 4th, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 5th, the spot price of soybean meal was 3073.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2362.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 29th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 919.08, an increase of 1.24% from last week. This week, the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 110.4 tons [75][83][87]. - **CPI**: As of July 2025, the year - on - year increase in China's CPI was 0.0% [91]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 36th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.27%, a 2 - percentage - point increase from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [94]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [99]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data or analysis is provided [100].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of pigs is expected to adjust weakly and fluctuately. The supply of pigs is likely to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, but pig prices are expected to rebound at the end of the year. [1] - The fat - standard price difference is expected to strengthen, which may increase the willingness of farmers to fatten pigs. [1] Summary by Directory 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: Due to the weak performance of the spot market, the futures price fluctuated weakly this week. On August 29, 2025, the benchmark base difference of the main contract was 185 yuan/ton, compared with -70 yuan/ton on August 22. [2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts fluctuated and adjusted. [4] - **月间价差变化**: The monthly spreads fluctuated and adjusted. [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, the slaughter volume increased steadily, while pig prices fluctuated weakly. [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences were relatively reasonable. [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference fluctuated strongly. If it continues to strengthen, it will increase the market's willingness to fatten pigs. [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year. [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork was average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat weakened, and the cost - effectiveness of frozen products was lower than that of fresh products. [21] - **养殖利润**: The self - breeding and self - raising profit was still considerable, while the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was slightly in the red. [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continued to decline this week. Attention should be paid to whether the negative cycle of "weak price → increased slaughter enthusiasm → weak price" will form. [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: As of the end of July, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, with a month - on - month and year - on - year growth of 0.0%. Different data sources showed that the inventory of reproductive sows continued to increase. [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows was weak this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows decreased month - on - month in July, and the enthusiasm for capacity reduction in the market was average. [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In July, the number of healthy newborn piglets increased by 0.06% month - on - month. According to a 6 - month fattening period, the number of pigs to be slaughtered in January next year is expected to increase overall. [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets was stable with a slight downward trend, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows was weak. [33] 4. Slaughter End - **屠宰量与屠宰利润等**: The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 31.66 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral and slightly negative. [35] 5. Import End - In July 2025, the pork import volume was about 87,600 tons, a decrease of about 2,400 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices. [38]

Core Viewpoint - In August, the national pig prices experienced a downward trend due to a combination of increased supply from farms and the traditional off-season for consumption. The market is expected to continue facing oversupply in September, with potential downward pressure on prices, necessitating close monitoring of policy implementation [1]. Group 1: August Pig Price Trends - In August, the national average pig price was 13.80 yuan/kg as of August 27, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 5.15% and a year-on-year decline of 32.16% [2]. - The highest price recorded was 14.27 yuan/kg on August 1, while the lowest was 13.59 yuan/kg on August 27, with a maximum price difference of 0.68 yuan/kg [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side saw a high outflow from farms in early August, with larger pigs entering the market, leading to an abundance of supply. However, demand was weak due to high temperatures and the traditional off-season for pork consumption [4]. - As August progressed, smaller pigs (110-120 kg) began to dominate the market, which, due to their shorter turnover and lower costs, further pressured overall market prices downward [4]. - Despite a slight improvement in demand towards the end of August due to school and enterprise stocking, the overall purchasing volume was lower than in previous years, limiting the demand's impact on prices [4]. Group 3: September Price Outlook - In September, the pig supply is expected to increase due to delayed outflows from farms, with some farms possibly accelerating their outflow to avoid excessive supply pressure in the fourth quarter [5]. - The demand in early September is anticipated to remain weak, with only a slight improvement expected due to the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, but overall support for prices is limited [5]. - Policy changes regarding cross-province pig transportation starting September 1, 2025, may have mixed effects on different regions, necessitating ongoing observation of policy impacts on the market [5].