Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig market showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom". The futures price rebounded before the Spring Festival due to the boost of curing and holiday demand, but fell after the Spring Festival due to weak consumption demand and weakened secondary fattening sentiment [1][2] - Looking forward to Q2 2026, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market is still being released. The pig price is likely to continue to bottom out in the low - level range in the short term, and there may be a phased trend market in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the breeding strategies of farmers in the off - season [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2026 Q1, the domestic live pig futures and spot markets showed a trend of "rising first and then falling, and continuously hitting bottom", and the industry fell into deep losses [2] - From the beginning of the year to before the Spring Festival: The peak season was not prosperous, and the destocking of breeding sows was less than expected. The spot price briefly soared to about 13.18 yuan/kg in January, but the futures market declined due to the less - than - expected destocking of breeding sows [2] - After the Spring Festival: The demand was dismal, and the industry fell into deep losses. The supply was abundant, and the demand entered the traditional off - season. The narrowing of the white - hair price difference and the slow sales of white - striped pork further suppressed the pig price [3] Chapter 3: Key Points of Concern 3.1 Supply - side Concerns - **Breeding sows**: The current live pig slaughter is mainly determined by the breeding sow inventory in April - May 2025, which was still at a high level. The destocking of breeding sows has been slow, but may accelerate due to serious losses in pig breeding. The proportion of binary and ternary breeding sows has remained relatively stable, and the overall breeding capacity has been increasing [6] - **Production efficiency**: The current PSY and MSY of live pig production are at historical highs, which has significantly enhanced the actual supply capacity of commercial pigs. The release of "invisible production capacity" has led to continuous pressure on pig prices and deepened industry losses [8] - **Live pig slaughter volume**: From the beginning of the year to around the Spring Festival, the domestic live pig slaughter showed the characteristics of "high - level operation of total volume, slow - then - fast slaughter rhythm, and high proportion of large pigs". The slaughter pressure increased rapidly after the Spring Festival. In March, the planned slaughter volume of group pig enterprises increased significantly compared with that in February [10] - **Average slaughter weight of live pigs**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs in early January was relatively low, and did not decrease significantly before the Spring Festival as in previous years. After the Spring Festival, the problem of large pigs was prominent, and the average slaughter weight continued to rise, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years [12] 3.2 Demand - side Concerns - **Slaughter enterprises**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs in 2026 was relatively high. In January, the slaughter volume increased by 15.4% compared with the same period last year, but the data of sample enterprises showed different trends [17] - **Terminal fresh sales situation**: The fresh sales rate in the terminal live pig market has dropped significantly due to increased slaughter volume and slow sales of white - striped pork. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the fresh sales market will continue to fluctuate at a low level under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [19] Chapter 4: Cost Valuation and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Breeding Profit - The live pig breeding industry is in a state of deep losses, with self - breeding and self - raising suffering more severe losses. The loss per pig in self - breeding and self - raising has expanded to - 344.24 yuan, and the loss in purchasing piglets for fattening is in the range of - 141.48 yuan to - 199.25 yuan [21] - The secondary fattening behavior in the live pig market has shown a "rational slowdown" feature, with low utilization rate of fattening pens and narrowing or inverted spread between standard and fat pigs [23][24] 4.2 Feed Cost - The feed cost of live pig breeding is rising due to the increasing prices of corn and soybean meal, which has further exacerbated the industry's losses [26] 4.3 Summary and Supply - Demand Outlook - In Q1, the pig price showed a unilateral accelerating downward trend, and the industry has fallen into deep cash - flow losses. Although the destocking of breeding sows is currently less than expected, it may accelerate in the future [28] - In the short term, the oversupply pressure in the live pig market will still be released, and the pig price is likely to continue to bottom out at a low level. In the supply side, as the industry enters a deep - loss stage, the sow production capacity will shrink, and the marginal supply pressure may decrease [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hog market continues to be weak, with an average ex - factory price of 9.5 yuan/kg for live hogs of the outer three - yuan variety across the country, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market has an obvious oversupply situation, with general enthusiasm for second - fattening and frozen product warehousing, limited demand growth, and a pessimistic sentiment. The price is mainly oscillating at the bottom, lacking short - term rebound momentum. The overall market remains in a downturn [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13645, 9000, 9980, 11310, 12595, and 13010 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were 0, 0, - 65, 60, 110, and 105, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.65%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.81% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 7364, 0, 133743, 41805, 26821, and 10619 respectively, and the open interests were 25375, 23, 213787, 81765, 74205, and 45072 respectively. The changes in open interest were 1805, - 1, 1529, 3983, 2769, and 1885 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, and 11 - 1 month were 4645, - 980, - 1330, - 1285, - 415, and - 635 respectively, compared with the previous values of 4645, - 1045, - 1205, - 1235, - 420, and - 740 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 9.71, 9.51, 9.33, 10.01, 9.28, and 9.25 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.07, - 19.18, - 0.1, - 0.01, - 0.09, and - 0.08 compared with the previous day [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day was 1009, a decrease of 23 compared with two days ago [2]. Market Data - The price of standard hogs was 9.50 yuan/kg, and the price of fat hogs was 10.13 yuan/kg, with a price difference of 0.63 yuan/kg. The daily出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 298878 heads, a slight increase of 0.31%. The average出栏 weight was 123.56 kg, a slight increase. The total slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises was 136340 heads, a slight increase of 0.081%. The self - breeding and self - raising daily loss was 333.37 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets was 224.8 yuan/head [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent live hog market shows a weak and volatile pattern. The average price of ternary live hogs nationwide has slightly declined to 9.59 yuan/kg, with obvious regional price differences. The supply pressure has slightly eased but remains sufficient. The industry is still in a deep - loss stage due to the oversupply situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of live hog futures for January, March, May, July, September, and November are 13645, 9000, 10045, 11250, 12485, and 12905 respectively. The price changes are 50, - 300, 65, 220, 185, and 180, with corresponding price change rates of 0.37%, - 3.23%, 0.65%, 1.99%, 1.50%, and 1.41% [2]. - The trading volumes are 4142, 1, 157586, 41268, 21721, and 6722 respectively. The open interests are 23570, 24, 212258, 77782, 71436, and 43187 respectively, and the changes in open interests are 1245, - 3, 5002, 1697, 1427, and 1415 respectively [2]. - The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 4645, - 1045, - 1205, - 1235, - 420, and - 740 respectively, compared with the previous values of 4295, - 680, - 1050, - 1270, - 425, and - 870 [2]. Spot Market - The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.78, 9.67, 9.43, 10.02, 9.37, and 9.33 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 0.1, - 19.43, - 0.09, - 0.01, - 0.02, and - 0.15 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the previous day is 1032, a decrease of 19 compared with the day before [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From March 16 - 22, 2026, the national live hog spot price fluctuated at a low level and showed a slight decline, not following the futures to reach a new low. The national average price of outer ternary live hogs dropped from about 10.80 yuan/kg on March 16 to 9.74 yuan/kg on March 22, with a weekly cumulative decline of 1.06 yuan/kg and a decline rate of 9.81% [1]. - In the short - term, the supply pressure remains unrelieved, the large - scale pig enterprises' slaughter plans are still high, and the clearance of large - weight pig sources is not completed. The imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to fundamentally change in the short - term, and there is no basis for a significant price increase. However, the current pig price has fallen to the lowest level since 2019, the losses of the breeding end are intensifying, the room for further price cuts is limited, and policy purchases and capacity regulation will gradually improve market expectations. Some slaughter enterprises may start frozen product warehousing, and secondary fattening funds may enter the market tentatively, providing phased support for prices. Opportunities for oversold rebounds should be grasped [1]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The national live hog spot price was in a low - level shock state from March 16 - 22, 2026, showing a slight decline. The futures price hit a new low, but the spot price did not follow [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | Yuan/head | 280.95 | 317.14 | - 36.19 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | Kilograms | 123.28 | 123.17 | 0.11 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | Yuan/head | - 154.23 | - 143.87 | - 10.36 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | Yuan/head | - 263.99 | - 233.72 | - 30.27 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 30.12 | 31.54 | - 1.42 | Weekly | [3] Other Analyses - The report also includes analyses of the futures and spot market, supply, demand, and cost - profit, with corresponding data charts and data sources from Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][14][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis. The supply is under pressure as the breeding side is selling normally and the sales of some large hogs are increasing. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. Overall, the supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - **Market Outlook**: The breeding side is selling normally, and the sales of some large hogs are increasing, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. The supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the live hog futures price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 20, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live hog futures was 64,491 lots, an increase of 5,199 lots from last week. The number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1,051, a decrease of 82 from the previous week [17] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 1060, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 2355 [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live hog May contract was - 220 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the July contract was - 1280 yuan/ton [28] - **Spot Price**: This week, the average national live hog market price was 10.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 26.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from last week [37] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On March 20, the national pork market price was 15.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.45 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44] - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week ending February 11, 2026, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.5, a decrease of 0.18 from the previous week [48] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million. According to institutional data, the inventory in February decreased slightly month - on - month. The inventory of 123 large - scale farms in February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 166,860, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.12% [50][54] - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. According to institutional data, in February, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 1.5767 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.89% [58] - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: According to institutional data, in February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a year - on - year increase of 12.12%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 559,600, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 23.07%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.28 kg, an increase of 0.11 kg from last week [62] 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Live Hog and Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of March 20, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/hen, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/hen; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.62 yuan/chicken, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan/chicken [65] 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Import**: In January and February 2026, the cumulative pork import was 120,000 tons, with a monthly average of 60,000 tons. In February, the pork import was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%; the import from January to February was 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68][72] 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken and Fat - Standard Price Difference**: As of the week ending March 20, the white - striped chicken price was 13.7 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The average national standard - fat pig price difference was - 0.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from last week [76] 3.3.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of March 20, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,405.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.43 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of corn was 2,454.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.75 yuan/ton from the previous week [83] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of March 20, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 963.72; the average price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg [87] - **Feed Output**: From January to February 2026, the feed output was 51.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In February, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [91] 3.3.6 CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [96] 3.3.7 Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 12th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 30.45%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week and 4.30 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 80.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.65%; the frozen product storage capacity rate was 18.72%, an increase of 0.88% from last week and 1.70% from the same period last year [100] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of January 2026, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.96% and a 15.41% increase from the previous month. From January to February 2026, the national catering revenue was 1.0264 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [105] 3.3.8 Live Hog Stocks - Stocks of Muyuan and Wens are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pig Daily Report" dated March 19, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of the pig market is relatively large, and the price continues to decline. The overall downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has increased. The subsequent supply pressure still exists, and the market supply and demand are relatively loose in the short term. The price is mainly downward, and the futures price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [1][3][4] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - Today, the spot prices of pigs in various regions across the country are showing a downward trend. For example, the price in Henan dropped from 10.09 to 10.02, a decrease of 0.07. The average price dropped from 9.98 to 9.87, a decrease of 0.11 [3] Futures Prices - The futures prices of pigs continue to show a significant downward trend, but after a large decline recently, the overall decline has begun to narrow. For example, LH01 dropped from 13490 to 13405, a decrease of 85 [3][4] Sow/Piglet Prices - The piglet price dropped from 316 to 294, a decrease of 22, while the sow price remained unchanged at 1539 [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 spread changed from -990 to -1130, a decrease of 140 [3] Spot Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising dropped from -237.98 to -283.15, a decrease of 45.17; the profit of purchasing piglets dropped from -58.89 to -118.18, a decrease of 59.29 [3] Slaughter Information - The slaughter volume increased from 151310 to 152327, an increase of 1017 [3] Size Pig Price Spreads - The price spread between standard pigs and medium pigs decreased from 0.51 to 0.5, a decrease of 0.01; the price spread between large pigs and standard pigs increased from 1 to 0.54, an increase of 0.02 [3] Group 5: Market Analysis - Scale enterprises' pig sales volume continues to decline, and it is expected that the sales volume this month will continue to increase. The sales volume of ordinary farmers has changed little recently and remains at a relatively low level, and the subsequent sales may increase. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and the market entry is still relatively cautious. The pig slaughter weight remains at a relatively high level, and the supply - side pressure is still relatively obvious [3][4] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to gradually close out the previous short positions - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see - Options: Sell wide - straddle strategy for near - month contracts [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of the live - hog market is relatively loose in the short term. The follow - up price is mainly affected by the supply - side after the decline in inventory, with limited upside space [1][3]. - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side. The overall market pressure is still obvious [3]. - The sustainability of the increase in spot prices needs further observation, but the downside space is also limited. The price pressure is still significant, and there is still some pressure on the near - term futures contracts in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - side pressure is still obvious, and the overall futures price is expected to decline [3]. Group 3: Summary by Content Spot Price - Today, live - hog prices across the country are in a volatile state. Prices in the north generally show an upward trend, while those in the south show a downward trend. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased compared to yesterday, but it is expected to continue to increase this month. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers remains relatively low, and it may increase in the future. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and the market entry is still relatively cautious [1]. Futures Price - The live - hog futures price shows a significant downward trend. After rising under macro - influence, it has fallen significantly. The recent sharp decline in the futures market is due to the deepening losses of the breeding end and increased market concerns about the subsequent supply side [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The piglet price this week is 316, a decrease of 10 compared to last week. The sow price is 1539, a decrease of 4 compared to last week [1]. Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 is - 920, a decrease of 100 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 1 is - 780, a decrease of 125 compared to yesterday; LH9 - 11 is - 260, a decrease of 55 compared to yesterday; LH11 - 1 is - 520, a decrease of 70 compared to yesterday [1]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 148,008 heads, an increase of 348 compared to yesterday [1]. Size - Pig Price Spreads - The price spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.6, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday; the price spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs is 0.08, a decrease of 0.01 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs is 0.49, a decrease of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the price spread between large pigs and standard pigs is 0.57, a decrease of 0.05 compared to yesterday [1]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread for LH59. - Options: Sell call options for near - term contracts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall pig market shows a significant oversupply, with high supply pressure and weak demand. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable, and the near - end of the futures market should be sold on rebounds, while the far - end should be observed due to high premium [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The supply pressure was obvious, demand was weak, and the overall market was oversupplied. After continuous price cuts, farmers showed resistance, which may lead to a small - scale rebound in the north and south markets, but the price increase space is limited, and pig prices may still be under pressure [11]. - **Supply Side**: The official data shows that the inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the peak. The theoretical supply in the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half but the amplitude may be limited. The de - stocking progress of sows has slowed down. The theoretical出栏 volume remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. The short - term supply is still in obvious excess [11]. - **Demand Side**: The terminal market shows no sign of improvement, and the secondary fattening is cautious, so the demand has little support for the market [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot may maintain a weakly stable trend. The near - end of the futures market maintains a premium structure and should be sold on rebounds; the far - end has the expectation of capacity de - stocking, but the upward drive of the spot is insufficient, so it is recommended to observe. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds for contracts 05 - 07 and observe for others, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months [11][13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Last week, domestic pig prices continued to decline. The supply pressure was obvious, and the market was oversupplied. After continuous price cuts, there may be a small - scale rebound, but the price increase space is limited [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price dropped significantly after the Spring Festival, and the futures market changed to a premium structure, with the basis turning negative. The weakness of the spot led to a reverse spread in the monthly spread [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Not specifically summarized in the text, but there are relevant price trend charts [27][29]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Breeding Sows and Changes**: The inventory of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a 2.9% decrease from the peak. The de - stocking progress has slowed down, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65% and 0.73% in January and February respectively according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The theoretical出栏 volume remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is not high, indicating that the current epidemic is generally controllable; the proportion of large pigs has decreased seasonally and is lower year - on - year, indicating that the current inventory of large pigs is not high [43][46]. - **Transaction and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The short - term supply is still in obvious excess, as the weight is still increasing month - on - month despite price drops and breeding losses after the Spring Festival [50]. 3.4. Demand Side - The terminal market shows no sign of improvement, and the secondary fattening is cautious, so the demand has little support for the market [59]. 3.5. Cost and Profit - The breeding cost is generally low, but the cost of purchasing piglets has increased. After the Spring Festival, pig prices dropped significantly, and breeding has turned into a loss, which is slightly lower in seasonal performance [70]. 3.6. Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory has increased seasonally and is in a state of passive inventory accumulation month - on - month [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The pig market continues its pattern of fluctuating and declining prices. The average ex-farm price of ternary pigs in China is 10.2 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market is in a state of oversupply, with demand remaining weak, and prices are under pressure. The market may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,810, 10,150, 11,200, 12,300, 13,210, and 13,400 respectively. The price changes were 50, 0, 40, 120, 70, and 20, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.36%, 0.00%, 0.36%, 0.99%, 0.53%, and 0.15% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 6,728, 0, 175,079, 22,294, 28,181, and 11,944 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 14,962, 165, 180,023, 59,659, 54,247, and 36,366 respectively, with changes of 2,094, -13, 6,829, 621, 170, and 1,225 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads for January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 3,660, -1,050, -1,100, -910, -190, and -410 respectively, compared to previous values of 3,610, -1,010, -1,020, -960, -240, and -380 [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 10.37, 10.07, 10.03, 10.28, 10.02, and 10.04 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -0.16, -20.24, -0.1, -0.3, 0.05, and -0.03 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts is 1,150, with no change [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering that the weight and theoretical出栏量 remain high, although the散户's pen space is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry under the current fat - standard price difference is insufficient, so the short - term spot may maintain a weakly stable trend. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the feed price increase. The near - end of the futures market maintains a premium structure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. For the far - end, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is advisable to wait and see [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since February, the domestic pig price has declined smoothly after reaching the peak. In the early ten - day period, the farming side was affected by the pre - Spring Festival slaughter rhythm and had an obvious intention to reduce weight. During the festival, the live inventory accumulated. After the festival, the farming side's enthusiasm for slaughter increased, but the demand side mainly digested the inventory, with general承接 ability. The market showed an obvious oversupply situation, and the price was weak. In March, it is still in the capacity release period, and due to the poor progress in February, there is post - supply. Considering the still large average trading weight and the limited demand recovery, the pig price this month may still operate weakly at a low level, with a slight support at the stage low due to the increase in inventory and secondary fattening [11][22] - **Supply Side**: The official data shows that the inventory of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% from the peak. The sow reduction since last year has been limited. Although the capacity reduction accelerated after October, the time - lag effect leads to a still large theoretical supply in the first half of this year. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year, but the amplitude may be limited. The sow reduction progress has slowed down due to the non - weak pig price and the rising piglet price since December last year. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, reaching the peak in March. After April, although it declines seasonally, the decline is small and still higher year - on - year. Currently, the pre - holiday weight reduction by enterprises was insufficient, the inventory was accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the weight is still rising significantly after the festival, indicating an obvious short - term oversupply [11] - **Demand Side**: There is secondary fattening replenishment in local low - price areas, but its impact on the pig price is less than before, and the upward driving force of the pig price is insufficient. The terminal white - strip pork sales are also not ideal, and the slaughter side may still have the possibility of pressing the price to purchase pigs [11][59] - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short on rebounds for contracts 05 - 07 and wait and see for others, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, weight, secondary fattening, fat - standard price difference, and slaughter volume, with a recommended level of two - star and the first proposed time on February 26 [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: The domestic pig price has declined after peaking since February. The supply - demand relationship shows oversupply, and the price is weak. In March, it may operate weakly at a low level, with a slight support at the stage low [11][22] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price opened significantly lower, and the recent pressure is still large. The futures market has turned into a premium structure, and the basis has turned negative. The weak spot has led to a reverse spread in the monthly spread [25] - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: Not specifically analyzed in terms of price trends in this section, but only presented in the form of charts [27] 3. Supply Side - **Fertile Sows and Changes**: The inventory of fertile sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, a decrease of 2.9% from the peak. The sow reduction since last year has been limited, and the reduction progress has slowed down recently [34] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: The theoretical出栏量 in the first half of the year is high, reaching the peak in March. After April, it declines seasonally but is still high year - on - year [43] - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [39] - **Trading and Post - Slaughter Average Weight**: The pre - holiday weight reduction by enterprises was insufficient, the inventory was accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the weight is still rising significantly after the festival, indicating an obvious short - term oversupply [50] 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Local low - price areas have secondary fattening replenishment, but the impact on the pig price is limited. The terminal white - strip pork sales are not ideal, and the slaughter side may press the price to purchase pigs [59] - **Slaughter Start - up Rate and Gross Margin**: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [61] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [63] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Not specifically analyzed in terms of trends in this section, only presented in charts [65] 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The breeding cost is generally running at a low level, but the外购 cost has increased due to the rising piglet price. After the Spring Festival, the pig price has dropped significantly, and the breeding has turned into a loss state, but the seasonal performance is normal [70] 6. Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen - product inventory is slightly declining, but still higher seasonally and year - on - year [75]