Core Viewpoint - The 138th China Import and Export Fair highlights the challenges and opportunities for small and micro foreign trade enterprises in navigating the complex global trade environment, as outlined in the SMERI report by China Export Credit Insurance Corporation [2][3]. Group 1: Overall Risk Assessment - The SMERI report indicates a significant increase in overall risk for small and micro foreign trade enterprises, with the 2025 SMERI index projected at 34.4, a rise of 5.8 points from the previous year, marking the largest increase since 2021 [3]. - Global economic growth is expected to enter a "new normal" of low to medium-speed growth, with structural adjustments and transformation pressures [3]. - Trade protectionism is intensifying, with risks in the industrial chain characterized by high volatility and strong interconnectivity, particularly from the U.S. and EU [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy Impact - U.S. trade policy adjustments, particularly under the "America First" principle, are identified as a major variable affecting global trade risks, with measures like "reciprocal tariffs" violating WTO principles and increasing trade friction [4]. - The removal of tax exemptions for low-value imports from China has led to a surge in the exit rate of small sellers in the cross-border e-commerce market [4]. - Plans to impose tariffs on Chinese shipping and further sanctions in technology sectors are expected to exert additional pressure on China's foreign trade market [4]. Group 3: EU's "De-risking" Strategy - The EU's "de-risking" strategy is becoming more stringent, with investigations into subsidies for electric vehicles and potential future policies affecting sectors like new energy and semiconductors [4]. - The anticipated chaos in global supply chains will significantly impact small and micro enterprises that provide services to multinational companies [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Opportunities - The WTO forecasts a 3.0% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, with Asian economies leading the recovery [5]. - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries, with trade agreements covering 34% of its imports and exports, and trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries exceeding 50% of China's foreign trade [5]. - Emerging markets are presenting substantial business opportunities, particularly in sectors like machinery and transportation equipment, with a notable increase in demand for Chinese products [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Emerging Markets - Despite the opportunities, challenges such as weak financial infrastructure and unstable payment channels in developing countries pose significant risks for foreign trade enterprises [7]. - The report highlights that small and micro enterprises are particularly vulnerable to buyer credit risks and exchange rate fluctuations, with limited capacity to manage these risks compared to larger firms [9]. Group 6: Sector-Specific Risks - The top five industries of concern for small and micro foreign trade enterprises include textiles, light manufacturing, consumer electronics, new energy products, and electronic information [9]. - Labor-intensive industries are more susceptible to trade barriers and raw material cost fluctuations, while technology-intensive sectors face rising compliance costs and intense competition [9].