新京报贝壳财经讯（记者俞金旻）12月18日，贝壳财经记者从上海海关获悉，今年前11个月，上海市进 出口值达4.1万亿元人民币，同比增长5.7%，增速高于全国整体水平2个百分点。其中，出口1.83万亿 元，增长11.2%；进口2.27万亿元，增长1.6%。 据了解，其中11月份出口创月度历史新高，外贸增长态势持续巩固。自今年4月份以来，上海市已连续8 个月进口、出口双双增长。11月份，上海市进出口3874.9亿元，增长10.6%，其中出口1866亿元，增长 18.2%，出口值创月度历史新高；进口2008.9亿元，增长4.4%。 此外，新兴市场也成为进出口增长重要引擎。前11个月，上海市对第一大贸易伙伴欧盟进出口7423.1亿 元，增长1.4%，继前10个月累计增速回正后再提速1.1个百分点。同期，上海市对东盟、中东、非洲等 新兴市场分别进出口5846.8亿、1457.8亿、1357.7亿元，分别增长12.6%、17.5%、28.9%，显著高于整体 水平，市场多元化布局成效显著。 编辑 陈莉 校对 柳宝庆 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong resilience of foreign trade in Yiwu, Zhejiang, with import and export volume exceeding 700 billion yuan for the first ten months of the year, reaching 701.9 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1][3] - In terms of trade markets, Yiwu's imports and exports to emerging markets such as Africa and Latin America increased by 21.8% and 14% respectively, while trade with ASEAN saw a significant growth of over 50%, reaching 51% [1][3] - As the Lunar New Year approaches, traditional festive goods such as "Fu" characters, couplets, and lanterns are being introduced, alongside a variety of creative products that are experiencing strong sales [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The 138th China Import and Export Fair highlights the challenges and opportunities for small and micro foreign trade enterprises in navigating the complex global trade environment, as outlined in the SMERI report by China Export Credit Insurance Corporation [2][3]. Group 1: Overall Risk Assessment - The SMERI report indicates a significant increase in overall risk for small and micro foreign trade enterprises, with the 2025 SMERI index projected at 34.4, a rise of 5.8 points from the previous year, marking the largest increase since 2021 [3]. - Global economic growth is expected to enter a "new normal" of low to medium-speed growth, with structural adjustments and transformation pressures [3]. - Trade protectionism is intensifying, with risks in the industrial chain characterized by high volatility and strong interconnectivity, particularly from the U.S. and EU [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy Impact - U.S. trade policy adjustments, particularly under the "America First" principle, are identified as a major variable affecting global trade risks, with measures like "reciprocal tariffs" violating WTO principles and increasing trade friction [4]. - The removal of tax exemptions for low-value imports from China has led to a surge in the exit rate of small sellers in the cross-border e-commerce market [4]. - Plans to impose tariffs on Chinese shipping and further sanctions in technology sectors are expected to exert additional pressure on China's foreign trade market [4]. Group 3: EU's "De-risking" Strategy - The EU's "de-risking" strategy is becoming more stringent, with investigations into subsidies for electric vehicles and potential future policies affecting sectors like new energy and semiconductors [4]. - The anticipated chaos in global supply chains will significantly impact small and micro enterprises that provide services to multinational companies [4]. Group 4: Emerging Market Opportunities - The WTO forecasts a 3.0% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, with Asian economies leading the recovery [5]. - China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries, with trade agreements covering 34% of its imports and exports, and trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries exceeding 50% of China's foreign trade [5]. - Emerging markets are presenting substantial business opportunities, particularly in sectors like machinery and transportation equipment, with a notable increase in demand for Chinese products [5]. Group 5: Challenges in Emerging Markets - Despite the opportunities, challenges such as weak financial infrastructure and unstable payment channels in developing countries pose significant risks for foreign trade enterprises [7]. - The report highlights that small and micro enterprises are particularly vulnerable to buyer credit risks and exchange rate fluctuations, with limited capacity to manage these risks compared to larger firms [9]. Group 6: Sector-Specific Risks - The top five industries of concern for small and micro foreign trade enterprises include textiles, light manufacturing, consumer electronics, new energy products, and electronic information [9]. - Labor-intensive industries are more susceptible to trade barriers and raw material cost fluctuations, while technology-intensive sectors face rising compliance costs and intense competition [9].