Workflow
中秋国庆双节备货
icon
Search documents
长江期货鲜果周报:压力显现-20250919
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 08:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For apples, with the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking progressing, the bag - removing work of late Fuji is sporadic, and western rainfall may delay large - scale bag - removing. New - season apples in Shandong have a wide price range due to quality, and western early - maturing Fuji trading is ending. Inventory apple sales in Shandong have slowed. With the expectation of new fruit listing, apple prices face pressure and may show a trend of weak growth and oscillatory adjustment [9]. - For red dates, Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period with no extreme weather in the weather forecast. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. With the expectation of new fruit listing, red date prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [43]. 3. Summary by Directory Apple Section 01. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, as Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking progresses, late Fuji bag - removing is sporadic. Western rainfall may delay large - scale bag - removing. New - season Shandong Red General apples have a wide price range due to quality, and western early - maturing Fuji trading is ending. Inventory apples in Shandong have slow sales. Future apple prices face pressure and may show oscillatory adjustment [9]. 02. Market Review - This week, the main apple contract oscillated horizontally. The apple basis was 314 yuan, up 1 from last week [13]. 03. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.70 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating recently [16]. 04. Apple Main Producing Areas Situation - In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples vary. For early - maturing varieties, Red General has quality problems but good sales due to price advantages. In Shaanxi, early - maturing Fuji trading is in the later stage, and picking - green Fuji is waiting to color [22]. 05. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory was 16.32 tons, down 4.59 tons from last week. Shandong's inventory sales have slowed due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [24]. 06. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of arriving vehicles in the Guangdong Chalong market has slightly increased. The market is mainly stocked with Fuji apples, and the overall sales are average [28]. 07. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week [31]. 08. Substitute Product Price Analysis - As of the 38th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.81 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the 37th week. The prices of different fruits have risen and fallen [35]. Red Date Section 01. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period with no extreme weather. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. Red date prices are expected to decline oscillatingly with the new fruit listing [43]. 02. Market Review - Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to weather changes and jujube fruit growth [47]. 03. Spot Price Trend - In different markets such as Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong, the supply of red dates is small, and the prices are fluctuating within a narrow range or remaining stable. The actual transaction prices vary according to origin and quality [50]. 04. Inventory Data - According to Mysteel's survey, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.79% month - on - month and an increase of 80.64% year - on - year [52]. 05. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of gray dates in the Xinjiang main - producing area is 5.33 yuan/kg, the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, and the gross profit is 2.36 yuan/kg [56].