Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are relatively loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which has affected the export of new US soybeans and put pressure on prices. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,442, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous level and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,050 - 8,450. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,732, with a basis of 38, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 8,900. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same as above, the MPOB report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil has increased by 4% month-on-month. As it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,126, with a basis of 351, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous level and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Current Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year decrease. [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: The inventory data on September 22 shows an increase compared to the previous period and a year-on-year increase. [4] - **Domestic Total Inventory of Oils and Fats**: No detailed data provided, only mentioned. [23] Demand - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Oil**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean oil from 2015 - 2025. [14] - **Apparent Consumption of Soybean Meal**: The report shows the apparent consumption data of soybean meal from 2015 - 2025. [16]